Did Astronomy Play into Shot Targeting?

[James Hackerott]

Maybe. If a SN shooter de jure  peered out the SN window after the clouds cleared he'd met a very bright sun. More importantly, IMO, was the random and brilliant reflections from the north pool. A trained shooter learns early to keep both eyes open while aiming. So, I think the glare would influence where not to begin the attack on the President until the glare was no longer an issue.

The animation shows actual SN webcam screen shots taken 20001114 at 11:43 over a simulated view of 19631122 at 11:45. The trees now shade the pool much more than in 1963.

PoolReflectionsPOV 196311221145 vs SFM 200011141143

[Barry Pollard]

Couldn't have helped James and is there a chance you'd be even more distracted by that bling if you were on/in the DalTex?
I've come to believe that Elm just works better if you wanted a better chance of getting away with it, the worst heat has passed by and if you're in the SN itself there's that cover granted by the wall.  The Houston shot offers nothing in regards to chances of escape.

[Joe Elliott]

Maybe. If a SN shooter de jure  peered out the SN window after the clouds cleared he'd met a very bright sun. More importantly, IMO, was the random and brilliant reflections from the north pool. A trained shooter learns early to keep both eyes open while aiming. So, I think the glare would influence where not to begin the attack on the President until the glare was no longer an issue.

The animation shows actual SN webcam screen shots taken 20001114 at 11:43 over a simulated view of 19631122 at 11:45. The trees now shade the pool much more than in 1963.

PoolReflectionsPOV 196311221145 vs SFM 200011141143

I have downloaded Don Roberdeau?s map, shown below:

https://imgur.com/8vSS1dp

Making measurements from it, I find that the part of the reflecting pool that comes closest to reflecting light into Oswald?s eye is the ?North-West? part of the pool. This is part of the ?Semi-Circle? part of the pool.

With the sun 8.83 degrees to the west of directly South, that is, with a Compass Heading of 188.83 degrees and 36.92 degrees above the horizon. The sun misses the position it needs to be to reflect it?s image into the sixth floor sniper?s nest window by 15 degrees horizontally and 10 degrees vertically.

The reflecting pool does not have a compass heading of 189 degrees, from the viewpoint of the sniper?s nest, but of 174 degrees.

Just eyeballing Don?s map one can tell this is so.

To see the image of the Sun reflected off the reflection pool, one would have to be on the ?tenth floor? (several stories above the roof) and even then, this would only happen around 11:45 am, not at 12:30 pm.

And with Oswald aiming at the target, he would not come close to looking at either the sun or the reflecting pool.

[John Iacoletti]

Even harder for a reflection off the pool to hit Oswald's eye in the first floor domino room at the back of the building.

[James Hackerott]

I have downloaded Don Roberdeau?s map, shown below:

https://imgur.com/8vSS1dp

Making measurements from it, I find that the part of the reflecting pool that comes closest to reflecting light into Oswald?s eye is the ?North-West? part of the pool. This is part of the ?Semi-Circle? part of the pool.

With the sun 8.83 degrees to the west of directly South, that is, with a Compass Heading of 188.83 degrees and 36.92 degrees above the horizon. The sun misses the position it needs to be to reflect it?s image into the sixth floor sniper?s nest window by 15 degrees horizontally and 10 degrees vertically.

The reflecting pool does not have a compass heading of 189 degrees, from the viewpoint of the sniper?s nest, but of 174 degrees.

Just eyeballing Don?s map one can tell this is so.

To see the image of the Sun reflected off the reflection pool, one would have to be on the ?tenth floor? (several stories above the roof) and even then, this would only happen around 11:45 am, not at 12:30 pm.

And with Oswald aiming at the target, he would not come close to looking at either the sun or the reflecting pool.

Joe, thank you very much for your effort to respond to this thread. I basically agree with everything you wrote about the sun at 12:30. This would be all well and good, but I am not really concerned with the sun reflecting from a perfectly flat water surface. I'm demonstrating with simulation and actual camera video taken a little over a week before 11/22 that random wave fronts formed via wind, or fountains in the video of 20001114 at 12:23 cause random reflections. The 11:45 video was meant to demonstrate those random reflections.  The 20001114 12:23 reflections, a little hard to see, are coming from the pool's fountain, as the much taller and fuller trees to the west of the pool in 2000 and still today shade the north section of the pool at 12:30 on November 22.

It is my contention that at least some random sunlight glare would be observed in the SN windows, at 12:30, and would be distracting to a shooter with those reflections in direct or periphery vision.

Again, thank you for your input and I'd appreciate any responses.
 

[Joe Elliott]

Joe, thank you very much for your effort to respond to this thread. I basically agree with everything you wrote about the sun at 12:30. This would be all well and good, but I am not really concerned with the sun reflecting from a perfectly flat water surface. I'm demonstrating with simulation and actual camera video taken a little over a week before 11/22 that random wave fronts formed via wind, or fountains in the video of 20001114 at 12:23 cause random reflections. The 11:45 video was meant to demonstrate those random reflections.  The 20001114 12:23 reflections, a little hard to see, are coming from the pool's fountain, as the much taller and fuller trees to the west of the pool in 2000 and still today shade the north section of the pool at 12:30 on November 22.

It is my contention that at least some random sunlight glare would be observed in the SN windows, at 12:30, and would be distracting to a shooter with those reflections in direct or periphery vision.

Again, thank you for your input and I'd appreciate any responses.
 

I don?t think the reflections would be too distracting.

For the three shots at z153, z222 and z312, I calculate that the most reflective part of the pool would be (in 3-D space) 22, 31 and 34 degrees away from the target locations. And the sun itself would be (again in 3-D space) 17 degrees away from the ideal location needed to shine the brightest image into that window.

There will be some bright sparkles of light on the pool, due to small ripples in the water, but being pretty far from the target, the location along the road Oswald would have been aiming, I doubt this would be a problem.

Of course, some firing tests would have to be done to confirm this. Dealey Plaza can?t be used but it would be possible to find some remote location, with a small body of water, where this test can be made, at least with stationary targets.

Ideally, the sun would be about 10 degrees too high, and about 15 degrees too far to the west, to reflect the image of the sun directly into the shooter?s eyes, and the shooter should be looking (compass angles) 24, 34 and 35 degrees further west of the body of water, and down at an angle of 30, 21 and 16 degrees at the three targets.

[John Mytton]

Even harder for a reflection off the pool to hit Oswald's eye in the first floor domino room at the back of the building.

 

Hahaha, how do you get a guy with no alibi into the Domino room?

So much for your claimed impartiality, eh John!? -snigger-

JohnM

[James Hackerott]

I don?t think the reflections would be too distracting.

For the three shots at z153, z222 and z312, I calculate that the most reflective part of the pool would be (in 3-D space) 22, 31 and 34 degrees away from the target locations. And the sun itself would be (again in 3-D space) 17 degrees away from the ideal location needed to shine the brightest image into that window.

There will be some bright sparkles of light on the pool, due to small ripples in the water, but being pretty far from the target, the location along the road Oswald would have been aiming, I doubt this would be a problem.

Of course, some firing tests would have to be done to confirm this. Dealey Plaza can?t be used but it would be possible to find some remote location, with a small body of water, where this test can be made, at least with stationary targets.

Ideally, the sun would be about 10 degrees too high, and about 15 degrees too far to the west, to reflect the image of the sun directly into the shooter?s eyes, and the shooter should be looking (compass angles) 24, 34 and 35 degrees further west of the body of water, and down at an angle of 30, 21 and 16 degrees at the three targets.

Joe, again I thank your for your analysis.

I want to address a possible re-enactment scenario that can be appreciated from the comfort of your favorite computer chair by viewing EarthCam's live stream from the 6th floor SE window. Unless EarthCam or the SFM change the view the reflection pool will be in frame. We can view it on November 22, but until those trees are cut back to 1963 size they will block most of the sparkle . My thinking is to use symmetry to find dates that match within a few degrees the simultaneous 37 degree altitude and 144 155 degree azimuth that will match the sun's position Nov 22, 1963, but hit from east of the N/S line ? giving an effective elimination of those shade trees . I think I've calculated the 144 155 degree azimuth correctly. There are two dates that fill both requirements. They are October 26th @ 11:16 and February 16 @ 10:47 November 7 at 10:48 and February 3 at 11:18.

Better yet, if you're fortunate to visit the museum on or near those two dates you can view live from 1 row of windows west or the 7th floor above the SN. Note that on the 6th floor photography is not permitted while photography is perfectly okay on the 7th.

Of course, like  most astronomical events, clear skies are favored and for this experiment a stiff breeze and/or working fountains are needed.

Mark your calendars!
Simulation from 7th floor for November 22.


edit 20180911
I must make corrections to the dates and times I presented above due to a recalculated azimuth of 155 degrees with 37 deg altitude. The original times were determined using an incorrect azimuth of 144 degrees. The corrected times are November 7 at 10:48 and February 3 at 11:18.  At those times the sun will have an altitude of 37 degrees and azimuth of 155 degrees. Please advance to post #15 for updated graphics at these times versus an 11/22 12:30 sun at 185 degrees.