What are the holes in Donahue's Theory?

[Walt Blackadar]

Howard Donahue's theory of a Secret Service agent accidentally discharging his AR-15 is a theory that seems to fit many of the facts of this case. Donahue wasn't a conspiracy theorist. He was a ballistics expert who went a long way in proving that (1) it is physically possible to get off the shots in the timeframe and still be accurate and (2) showed how the Magic Bullet Theory could actually happen. His theories are often used to try to prove the Warren Commission's version. But of course he also disputed the fatal shot and instead indicated it came from the Secret Service car given the trajectory of the shot and the damage caused by a frangible bullet.

This theory also would be consistent with those witnesses who say they smelled gunpowder, those who saw the SS Agent (Hickey) holding a weapon, John Connolly's own testimony, the large number of witnesses who said they heard shots from the grassy knoll (due to acoustics this is what likely would happen from a shot within the motorcade) the actions of the SS in Parkland Hospital and a host of other discrepancies that have always been troubling.

I know it's troubling for some that this could have simply been a horrible accident in the end. I've heard this theory being outright dismissed but never based on the evidence. In fact I haven't found much online about this at all. So from a relatively newbish standpoint, what are the substantial holes in Donahue's theory (later backed by Colin McLaren) based on the known evidence of the assassination?

[Walt Cakebread]

Howard Donahue's theory of a Secret Service agent accidentally discharging his AR-15 is a theory that seems to fit many of the facts of this case. Donahue wasn't a conspiracy theorist. He was a ballistics expert who went a long way in proving that (1) it is physically possible to get off the shots in the timeframe and still be accurate and (2) showed how the Magic Bullet Theory could actually happen. His theories are often used to try to prove the Warren Commission's version. But of course he also disputed the fatal shot and instead indicated it came from the Secret Service car given the trajectory of the shot and the damage caused by a frangible bullet.

This theory also would be consistent with those witnesses who say they smelled gunpowder, those who saw the SS Agent (Hickey) holding a weapon, John Connolly's own testimony, the large number of witnesses who said they heard shots from the grassy knoll (due to acoustics this is what likely would happen from a shot within the motorcade) the actions of the SS in Parkland Hospital and a host of other discrepancies that have always been troubling.

I know it's troubling for some that this could have simply been a horrible accident in the end. I've heard this theory being outright dismissed but never based on the evidence. In fact I haven't found much online about this at all. So from a relatively newbish standpoint, what are the substantial holes in Donahue's theory (later backed by Colin McLaren) based on the known evidence of the assassination?

There is NOT a single photo that shows weapons in the hands of the Secret Service agents in the Queen Mary at the time of the murder.

[Dillon Rankine]

Howard Donahue's theory of a Secret Service agent accidentally discharging his AR-15 is a theory that seems to fit many of the facts of this case. Donahue wasn't a conspiracy theorist. He was a ballistics expert who went a long way in proving that (1) it is physically possible to get off the shots in the timeframe and still be accurate and (2) showed how the Magic Bullet Theory could actually happen. His theories are often used to try to prove the Warren Commission's version. But of course he also disputed the fatal shot and instead indicated it came from the Secret Service car given the trajectory of the shot and the damage caused by a frangible bullet.

This theory also would be consistent with those witnesses who say they smelled gunpowder, those who saw the SS Agent (Hickey) holding a weapon, John Connolly's own testimony, the large number of witnesses who said they heard shots from the grassy knoll (due to acoustics this is what likely would happen from a shot within the motorcade) the actions of the SS in Parkland Hospital and a host of other discrepancies that have always been troubling.

I know it's troubling for some that this could have simply been a horrible accident in the end. I've heard this theory being outright dismissed but never based on the evidence. In fact I haven't found much online about this at all. So from a relatively newbish standpoint, what are the substantial holes in Donahue's theory (later backed by Colin McLaren) based on the known evidence of the assassination?

He proposed that the fragments from the Oswald rifle found in the front of the limo were from a missed shot that hit the pavement. In 2000, histological analysis disclosed that the had human skin tissue attached.

Some reasons to dispute a CE-399-SBT can be found in this post I made: https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,1123.0.html

There?s no reason to believe that anyone actually smelled gunpowder. The context of hearing gunfire would alter the manner in which the brain processes olfactory information, making exhaust fumes (for example) be perceived as gunpowder (predictive coding theory).

Donahue used the double-bang to evidence his idea, yet his model has 3 well spaced shots.

There?s other reasons to dispute the theory.

[John Iacoletti]

In 2000, histological analysis disclosed that the had human skin tissue attached.

This is overstated.  One fragment, CE 567, had what was described by NARA as four small pieces of possibly organic material, examination of which showed that the material consisted of human tissue in varying states of preservation.  This was in 1999.  As far as I know, the source of the tissue was never identified.

[Barry Pollard]

First thing I even knew about it was from watching the "Smoking Gun" when it aired, interesting production but ultimately, when I saw it happen
https://youtu.be/s5_Fw-ewClc?t=1h24m13s
I knew, that's not what happened.  I just couldn't buy it.  Seeing Colin walking around the plaza eyeballng everything for the cameras didn't help.

[Bill Connors]

all i could think watching it was ' agent Gilligan'

[Joe Elliott]

1.   The Biggest Hole is the Bronson film. It shows, that at the time of the headshot, the AR-15 was not pointed at the President. Indeed, at that time, the Secret Service agent had not even stood up and held up the AR-15 rifle.
2.   The implausibility of a theory, that a Secret Service Agent, actually fired a shot and no one saw it or recorded it on film.
3.   The implausibility of a theory, that a Secret Service Agent, accidently fired a shot, and by random luck, even though he was about 20 feet away, the shot struck the President in the head. The odds of this are less than one in ten thousand. The surface area of a sphere with a radius of 20 feet is 4 * PI * 20**2 or about 5,000 square feet. The ?Target size is approximately a circle with a radius of 4 inches which is PI* .33**2 or about 0.35 feet, giving us odds of about 14,400 to one.

The Donahue Theory has about as many severe problems as any theory I have ever heard of. Max Holland?s ?The Lost Bullet? theory seems rock solid ? in comparison.

[Jon Banks]

Donohue was probably correct that the fatal head shot couldn?t have come from the Manilcher Carcano.

We?ll never know because Kennedy didn?t get a proper autopsy...