Curious to see what LNers think about the missed bullet, the Tague hit, and the relationship between the two (e.g., headshot fragment resulting in Tague hit).
This is a pretty big subject.
Bullet 1: z153 ? Judging from the Zapruder camera jiggles, and Connally?s reaction. Fair confidence in a shot at z153. As ballistic tests by Luke and Michael Haag show, the bullet would have fragmented into tiny pieces, leaving a small ?crater? in the road, similar to other minor damage spots found on busy roads. Most likely missed limousine due to the high angular speed of the target, about 3.6 degrees per second.
Bullet 2: z222 ? Judging from the Zapruder camera jiggles, Connally?s coat movement (commonly called a lapel flip) and JFK and Connally reacting at the same time. Very good confidence in a shot at z222. Most likely missed the center of the head by 8 inches due the medium angular speed of the target, about 1.8 degrees per second.
Bullet 3: z312 ? Forward movement of head between z312 and z313 indicates the shot struck much closer to z312 than z313. Virtual certainty of a shot at z312. Most likely missed the center of the head by only 2 inches due to the low angular speed of the target, about 0.55 degrees per second.
Tague hit by a fragment of the head shot. The two fragments that almost cleared the windshield were 9 and 5 degrees to the left of the line from Oswald to JFK. The path from the limousine to Tague was only 7 degrees to the right of this line.
Likely the smear on the curb was not from this fragment but from a lead weight of a car that veered into the curb at some point in time. This is a very busy street with fair number of ?buzzed? drivers going by day by day. It is a highly unlikely coincidence for a bullet to strike precisely on the edge of the curb, right where a tire lead weight would strike.