I figure that the guy who best knows what Gov. Connally was doing when he was shot is Gov. Connally, his other experiences notwithstanding. That being said, how can you say, "we can't rely on what Connally tells us" then turn around and tell us that we should instead pay heed to what Tom Shires said that Connally said? If Connally isn't reliable, then Connally-via-Shires would be even less so!
I am not saying that Connally's recollection to Shires is more reliable by itself. I am just pointing out that he said something different a day after the shooting than he said 6 months later. If a witness says two different things, their evidence on that point cannot be relied on. One of their answers may be correct or none may be correct. You have to see what fits the rest of the evidence. There is remarkable consistency to the evidence that the second shot was closer to the third than to the first and, therefore, was after z250. That conclusion is based not only on the 1.....2..3 shot pattern witnesses, but also on the independent recollections of Greer, Hickey, Nellie, Altgens, Tague, over 20 witnesses who put the first shot after z190 and a similar number of witnesses who said that JFK reacted immediately to the first shot. JBC never turns forward after z250. So IF he was hit by the second shot, as everyone seems to agree including the Connallys, he was turned to the right when he was hit.
So let's run down what the various players said between the assassination and the Warren Commision hearings. I'm using semicolons to separate different events in sequence, according to each instance of testimony:
John Connally/Agronsky: Heard a shot; turned to his left; as he turned, he was hit; said "My God, they're going to kill us all"; Kennedy hit again
He said he first turned to the left, but that is obviously a mistake. He never turned to the left in an attempt to look to the rear.
John Connally/WC: Heard a shot; turned to his right; was turning back to the left; was hit in the left turn while facing forwards; said "Oh, no, no, no", then "My God, they're going to kill us all"; "doubled up" and turned to his right; was pulled into his wife's lap; Kennedy hit again
Nellie Connally/WC: "heard a noise"; turned to her right, saw JFK with his hands up at the same time her husband said "Oh, no, no, no"; "there was a second shot*"; "he recoiled to the right" and "looked away from me" while saying "My God, they're going to kill us all"; she pulled him into her lap; Kennedy hit again
Shires/WC: "She had thought, and I think correctly so, that he had turned to his right after he heard the first shot, apparently, to see what had happened to the President, and he then later confirmed this, that he heard the first shot, turned to his right, and then was hit. I forgot about that a moment ago, incidentally. He definitely remembers turning after hearing the first shot, before he was struck with a bullet. I forgot about that."
What Shires recalled is perfectly consistent with what Connally told the Commission.
The "shot-while-turning-left" memory appears during the Agronsky interview, which was only a few days after the assassination. In fact, that interview was conducted while Connally was still in his hospital bed. It short-sheets anything Shires recalled later to the WC. And it remained in the Governor's testimony until he died. That tells me it's a core memory of the event in his mind. He and Nellie also both agreed that he turned right as a reaction to being shot. The shot-while-turning-left recollection and the right-turn-as-reaction memory put a constraint on when he could have been hit. He turns left beginning about frame 195 and doesn't start to noticeably "recoil to the right"until after frame 235.
You seem to be the only one who thinks he initially turned to the left to see JFK. That makes no sense at all. His whole point was that he turned around to see how JFK was because he feared an assassination was occurring. He could see that JFK had moved to the left so he decided to turn the other way (to his left) to see how the President was. JBC never turns left to see JFK.