Weasel words!
Truthful version: Mr Oswald is seen carrying a bag towards the building; the person who saw this has consistently insisted the bag was not long enough to be CE142.
Progress! And just when intelligent people had cause to doubt it was possible. So we can discount the claim that Oswald had no long bag in his possession when he entered the TSBD. Hooray! Glad you won't be citing that again. Oswald has a long a bag when he enters the TSBD. Check. Now it boils down to the evidence. On your side you have an estimate of Frazier of the bag's length. Basically a guess as to the length of an object that he himself notes he barely had cause to notice.
On the other side, we have such a bag that has Oswald's prints on it. That bag exists and can be measured. We don't have to guess or estimate its size. It is the only such bag matching the general description. It can't be accounted for in anyway except as Oswald's bag. No bag matching matching Frazier's estimate was ever found or accounted for in any way. Oswald denies carrying any long bag along the size estimated by Frazier. Thus, your hero is lying in your scenario in which Oswald carries the two foot or so long bag. Why? It is an important question that sheds considerable light on the contents of a bag. People lie when it is in their own self-interest and certainly not when it is contrary to their self interest. But here you would have us believe Oswald lies about carrying a long bag along Frazier's estimate when it would have assisted him considerably if it did not contain any incriminatory evidence. Why again? Because the bag he carried contained the rifle! It doesn't take Sherlock Holmes to reach the obvious conclusion that Frazier honestly, but erroneously estimated the length of the bag. He got it wrong by a few inches in that scenario and everything else falls into place. In your wild fantasy alternative scenario, all manner of unresolved and improbable events would have to be reconciled or explained. Where did the longer bag come from, what happened to the shorter bag, how did Oswald's prints get on the longer bag, why did Oswald lie... none of which any CTer can provide any explanation much less any plausible explanation.
Amazing,
Richard turns Alan's words "A bag not long enough to be CE142" into "Oswald has a long bag when he enters the TSBD"
And then he wonders why nobody takes him seriously.
And then of course, Richard lies;
Oswald denies carrying any long bag along the size estimated by Frazier. Oswald was never told "the size estimated by Frazier". If the interrogation reports are to be believed he was merely asked if he had carried a long bag, to which he answered; "no, only a lunch bag"
And then Richard says;
People lie when it is in their own self-interest Exactly right, Richard, you have just clearly demonstrated that yourself