Why the first shot missed

[Charles Collins]

From a copy of The Lost Bullet, here is the Hughes digitized film and I can definitely see something move into position in the sniper's nest window which corresponds with the position in your 3d graphic. 

The following graphic suffers from the usual gif restrictions but even in this copy from a copy from a copy, movement can be seen.





@ about 40:00

JohnM

Another great post John, thanks. Both Holland and Dale Myers believe that the sniper was standing for the first shot due to the sharp angle and subsequent box interference with the view. I believe that it is more likely that he was sitting on the box on the floor for all three shots. And that without any practice shots, the sniper didn't realize the boxes would interfere (until they did). And I believe that is the most likely explanation for missing the entire limo from that angle and distance (not hitting the traffic signal).

Here are a couple of images showing where the sniper would have to be positioned (in the little cubbyhole between the stacks of boxes) in order to have an unobstructed view through the window opening of the limo, at that point in time, if he were standing.






That space is a tight squeeze with no room for maneuvering. Not a likely spot to fire from in my opinion.

[Thomas Graves]

It is amazing that we have as many details as we do. But some of them just bring up more questions.

Charles,

Yes!

For example, my and Sandy Larsen's discovery of Gloria Calvery in Zapruder and in Couch-Darnell a couple of years ago raises the question:

"With whom was Calvery speaking at the base of the TSBD steps 20-to-30 seconds after the final shot -- Billy Lovelady, or Joe Molina?"

-- and --

"Is Gloria Calvery the gal Frazier was referring to when he said, in so many words, "A gal who had been farther down on Elm Street come by and bellowed out that JFK had been shot."

-- MWT 

[Thomas Graves]

Thanks John, it appears to me that the photo of the actual sniper's nest was taken after the boxes had been moved for fingerprinting and then put back. And it appears to me that they positioned them closer to the center of the window than they originally were. The photos of the reenactment in Max Holland's mock-up, with the guy kneeling, don't include the box that the sniper was sitting on. My contention is that that box would be in the way of his lower legs and feet in that kneeling position. Here are a few photos to illustrate my point.


This first one shows a top (plan) view of the sniper's nest. The box he was sitting on is about 16.5" from the south wall, as indicated in Day's testimony. The 3 boxes just inside the window are positioned closer to the east than in your photo. This agrees with the Dillard telephoto photograph taken seconds after the last shot. The result is that there is very little room between the sitting box and the other boxes for someone to kneel without some interference.



This one includes the sniper sitting on the box and leaning forward. It is the position that is used for the view from Brennan's position. If the sniper sits straight up he is out of view from Brennan's position. And the sniper has a view of all three of the positions of the limo for shots at: just before Z133, Z225, and Z313 without moving much at all.



Finally, Max Holland says in his program that the box the sniper was sitting on was in about the position in this photo. However it was actually much closer as I have shown above. And Max appears to be sitting on two boxes, so he was much higher than the sniper.

Charles,

Please explain (or rephrase) how you've shown that the "sitting box" was much closer to the window than Holland believes it was.

Thanks.

-- MWT 

Edit:  nm

I understand, now.

Question:  Do you believe Holland's analysis of how the cartridge casings ended up where the did is valid?

[Charles Collins]

There is some "grain noise" altering the registration on the film. That is normal for 8-mm film. What's happening in the SN window is significantly more than that.

I agree with John M. that there is movement in the open area of the SN window.

Seems primarily over the boxes by the window sill rather than between the boxes and the east-side window frame.

This particular Hughes sequence, per Myers, stops 13.16 sec before the head shot. About 3.3 sec before Z133 or 4.6 sec before Z157.

Yes, it is close enough to the point in time that the sniper would be tracking the limo and getting ready to fire.

[Duncan MacRae]

Four frames extracted from John's Gif, cropped and given a slight contrast adjustment.

The two frames, which appear to show a figure with a Rifle, have red letters marked over them.



One single frame which appears to show the figure with a Rifle.

[Thomas Graves]

Four frames extracted from John's Gif, cropped and given a slight contrast adjustment.

The two frames, which appear to show a figure with a Rifle, have red letters marked over them.



One single frame which appears to show the figure with a Rifle.

Thanks, Duncan.

I wish (John's?) red letters weren't there to obscure what we're looking at.

-- MWT   

[Duncan MacRae]

Thanks, Duncan.

I wish (John's?) red letters weren't there to obscure what we're looking at.

-- MWT   

The red markings are on the "The Lost Bullet" enhanced film.

[Charles Collins]

Charles,

Please explain (or rephrase) how you've shown that the "sitting box" was much closer to the window than Holland believes it was.

Thanks.

-- MWT 

Edit:  nm

I understand, now.

Question:  Do you believe Holland's analysis of how the cartridge casings ended up where the did is valid?

Do you believe Holland's analysis of how the cartridge casings ended up where the did is valid?

I believe that Holland showed one possibility, that is reasonable. However, I wish they had also tested using the similar rifle angle that would have occurred, with the rifle aimed at the limo position at that point in time, from the lower sitting position on the box. If the shot did miss due to box interference, I imagine that the sniper would have been a little frustrated. And that when he pulled the bolt back to reload, he might have used more force than normal due to that frustration. Which might have caused the shell to travel further than it would have otherwise.