Why the first shot missed

[Charles Collins]

In this photo, do the two arrows point to the "crease" on the box that some people thought might have been made to support the rifle while aiming?




Or, was there another "crease" or dent elsewhere on one of the boxes that could be what those people were describing?

[Joe Elliott]

Yes, I agree. And I replied to your thread accordingly. There are numerous factors to consider.

Yes. But on this thread, we had twenty pages on 'Why the first shot missed' without the high angular velocity of the first shot even being mentioned. While there may be many factors to consider, in my mind, the high angular velocity is the dominant reason. That factor, by itself, means that we should expect for Oswald to miss the first shot. But have a much better chance with his second and third shots, where the angular velocity was much lower.

[Charles Collins]

Yes. But on this thread, we had twenty pages on 'Why the first shot missed' without the high angular velocity of the first shot even being mentioned. While there may be many factors to consider, in my mind, the high angular velocity is the dominant reason. That factor, by itself, means that we should expect for Oswald to miss the first shot. But have a much better chance with his second and third shots, where the angular velocity was much lower.

While there may be many factors to consider, in my mind, the high angular velocity is the dominant reason.

The angular velocity is certainly a reason that the target could be missed. However, I find it impossible to believe that angular velocity could alone cause someone with LHO’s rifle training and abilities to miss the limo entirely. I believe that interference of some sort had to be involved.



Here is your description of the running deer competition with a sentence highlighted by me:

Running Deer Shooting at the 1908 Olympics.

In years past, they used to have a ‘Running Deer Shooting’ competition at the Olympics. The best thing about this competition was that they did not actually shot at real live deer.

The Wikipedia article on this gives the most complete information on the 1908 Olympics.
The range was 330 feet. The target would appear for only 4 seconds at a distance of 75 feet.

The target had an outline of a life size deer, with three concentric circles. The inner circle would could for 4 points. The next circle for 3. And the outermost circle for 2. A shot outside the largest circle, but on the outline of the deer (but not the rear part of the deer) would count as 1 point.

My father once told me, that in deer hunting, you don’t want to hit the rear of the deer. This would allow the deer to still get away but would wound it seriously enough that it would likely die in the coming days. Better to miss the deer altogether than to do that. Hence, I would guess, the somewhat strange scoring system.

Everyone would get a single shot (in the Single Shot competition) during a 4 second pass and would get 10 shots altogether.

The speed of the target was 18.75 feet per second or 12.8 mph. This is pretty slow. At 67 years old, I could run faster than that. I’m certain a real deer would run well over 30 mph. I suspect that they did not use real running deer solely for humane reasons.

Still, these were shots designed to test the best rifle shooters, at moving targets, in the world. So, I imagine they were pretty challenging.

In the real competition, the winner got 25 points, with several others just behind. So, an average shot would end up either in the “2” circle or the “3” circle. This competition appears to have been challenging because the three lowest scores were 11, 6 and 3 points.

The Angular velocity of the 1908 target varied from 3.21 to 3.26 degrees per second. Let’s compare this to the angular velocity of possible shots at Dealey Plaza. All the shots are listed from the highest to the lowest angular velocities:

The following chart lists:
     Angular Velocity of the Target, in degrees per second (dps),
     Tangential Velocity of the Target, in feet per second (fps),
     Distance to the Target, in feet (ft)


                                       Ang. Vel.    Tang. Vel.    Distance
Grassy Knoll, Badge Man   at z-312:    6.2  dps     10.8 fps      100 ft
Grassy Knoll, Smoke         at z-312:    5.1  dps      9.7 fps      109 ft
TSBD position                   at z-153:    4.8  dps     11.9 fps      142 ft

1908 Running Deer:                           3.2  dps     18.4 fps      330 ft

TSBD position                   at z-222:    1.9  dps      6.4 fps      192 ft
TSBD position                   at z-312:    0.58 dps      2.7 fps      265 ft


Obviously, Oswald was attempting a shot at z-153, with a higher angular velocity, than the best shooters in the world in 1908 had to attempt. No wonder he missed the limousine. A shot from the Grassy Knoll would have even been tougher, at least the target would have had an even higher angular velocity.

Admittedly, the Angular Velocity does not take into account distances. Perhaps a superior comparison is from the Tangential Velocity of the Target. So the following chart as the previous, except it is ordered by the Tangential Velocity:


                                                        Ang. Vel.    Tang. Vel.    Distance

1908 Running Deer:                           3.2  dps     18.4 fps      330 ft
TSBD position                  at z-153:     4.8  dps     11.9 fps      142 ft
Grassy Knoll, Badge Man  at z-312:     6.2  dps     10.8 fps      100 ft
Grassy Knoll, Smoke        at z-312:     5.1  dps      9.7 fps      109 ft

TSBD position                  at z-222:     1.9  dps      6.4 fps      192 ft
TSBD position                  at z-312:     0.58 dps      2.7 fps      265 ft


Either by using Angular Velocity or Tangential Velocity, the two shots that hit from Oswald’s position are clearly the easiest of shots.

The 1908 data is not totally satisfactory. It does not give the size of the scoring circles. Nor the size of the outline of the deer and exactly which part of this outline was out of bounds. Still, it’s the best I have found. And the rifles available in 1908 would be roughly equivalent of Oswald’s Carcano rifle. If anyone has any data that is as good or better I would be interested in seeing a post to it. Particularly one that would show if Angular Velocity or Tangential Velocity is a better measure of difficulty for shots under 200 yards.

I question your calculations simply because it appears to me that you incorrectly have the distance of the running deer competition shots at 330-feet instead of 75-feet.

The competitors were shooting at a target much smaller than the JFK limo. How many of the 1908 olympics shots do you suppose would have missed something the size of the limo?

[Zeon Mason]

If the deflection off a tree or the traffic light pole is not the reason for a missed shot, and it’s an early 1st shot somewhere between Z133- Z170, then why no significant  reactions of SS agents looking back to the TEBD in the Z film in that sequence of frames to indicate they heard anything?

The SS agents Seem to be fixated watching Umbrella man and  DC man up till Z207 before the sign blocks the view to them until they are seen again post Z 313.

Only a sight movement by SS agent Hickey at about Z143-45 and it is uncertain if it may just be readjustment due to limo movement causing inertia effect on Hickey which he had to counter balance.

Let’s say the shooter was sitting on the box position and keeping his body behind the wall so he wasn’t seen in Hughes film.

He would still have to move himself from that position to stick the rifle out the window and adjust both himself and the rifle as he tries to track and aim at the moving target.

In that moment of readjustment and in the state of anticipation / anxiety he was experiencing, could it be just an inadvertent squeezing the trigger because he already had his finger on the trigger before he had acquired the target in either the iron sights or the scope reticle?

[Charles Collins]

If the deflection off a tree or the traffic light pole is not the reason for a missed shot, and it’s an early 1st shot somewhere between Z133- Z170, then why no significant  reactions of SS agents looking back to the TEBD in the Z film in that sequence of frames to indicate they heard anything?

The SS agents Seem to be fixated watching Umbrella man and  DC man up till Z207 before the sign blocks the view to them until they are seen again post Z 313.

Only a sight movement by SS agent Hickey at about Z143-45 and it is uncertain if it may just be readjustment due to limo movement causing inertia effect on Hickey which he had to counter balance.

Let’s say the shooter was sitting on the box position and keeping his body behind the wall so he wasn’t seen in Hughes film.

He would still have to move himself from that position to stick the rifle out the window and adjust both himself and the rifle as he tries to track and aim at the moving target.

In that moment of readjustment and in the state of anticipation / anxiety he was experiencing, could it be just an inadvertent squeezing the trigger because he already had his finger on the trigger before he had acquired the target in either the iron sights or the scope reticle?

Let’s say the shooter was sitting on the box position and keeping his body behind the wall so he wasn’t seen in Hughes film.

If he was sitting on the box, and sitting up straight, he would be hidden from view by the Hughes camera, Brennan, Edwards, and Fischer. Brennan testified that he appeared to leave the window for a short time (several times). I suggest that he was simply sitting up straight.



He would still have to move himself from that position to stick the rifle out the window and adjust both himself and the rifle as he tries to track and aim at the moving target.

Simply leaning forward, while still seated, and lifting the rifle from his lap area (which would be out of sight to people in the plaza) to his shoulder and begin to track and aim. Either Edward or Fischer (or both) testified they saw him leaning forward. So, it appears to me that he was still seated on the box (and leaning forward) as the motorcade was entering Dealey Plaza.



In that moment of readjustment and in the state of anticipation / anxiety he was experiencing, could it be just an inadvertent squeezing the trigger because he already had his finger on the trigger before he had acquired the target in either the iron sights or the scope reticle?

Yes, it absolutely could have happened that way. An accidental discharge can happen to anybody. We have a bullet hole in our dining room table, chair, and floor (patched) to prove it. It was an accidental discharge that happened to a gunsmith (also a gun safety instructor and professional outdoorsman) who we have known since school days. He was helping us sell some guns that my wife inherited. And he was told that the gun was loaded. So, I have no doubt that it could have happened to the assassin.

[Joe Elliott]

I question your calculations simply because it appears to me that you incorrectly have the distance of the running deer competition shots at 330-feet instead of 75-feet.

The distance at z-153 was more like 129 feet, not 75 feet.

But the problem is, if the angular velocity is too great, a shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target. If the shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target, even one the size of a human, or a deer, I would expect them to miss at 330 feet. Or 129 feet. Or 75 feet. Even at 75 feet you need luck to hit a target of that size when you can't keep the sights lined up on the target as it moves.

The competitors were shooting at a target much smaller than the JFK limo. How many of the 1908 olympics shots do you suppose would have missed something the size of the limo?

I don't know. But all of the competitors had practice at shooting at a moving target. So even if the answer is zero for the 1908 Olympic competitors, Oswald might miss by more than any of them. He had training at shooting at stationary targets. So Oswald, I would believe, could hit a moving target with a slow angular velocity, like at z-222 or z-312. But Oswald might miss by five feet or more at a high angular velocity target at z-153, which could miss the limousine, since JFK was not sitting in the center of the limousine.

In any case, if anyone can find statistics on what good shooters can do with a high angular velocity shot, of 3.2 degrees per second or higher, at distances of 129 feet, or 75 feet, I would like to hear them. And not just assume that at 75 feet, one is so close, one is bound to hit a human size target, even without being able to aim properly. I don't buy that notion.

in 1950, when an attempt was made on Truman's life, Secret Service agents were firing several shots at the main would be assassin from ranges of around 30 to 40 feet. Using handguns. And all of them missing. Except for one morally wounded policeman who got a fatal hit on the assassin from 40 feet away.

When firing under difficult conditions, like using a handgun, or using a rifle on a target with too high an angular velocity, it's not easy to hit a human size target. At 129 feet. Or 75 feet. Or even 40 feet. Misses are quite possible.

[Charles Collins]

The distance at z-153 was more like 129 feet, not 75 feet.

But the problem is, if the angular velocity is too great, a shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target. If the shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target, even one the size of a human, or a deer, I would expect them to miss at 330 feet. Or 129 feet. Or 75 feet. Even at 75 feet you need luck to hit a target of that size when you can't keep the sights lined up on the target as it moves.

I don't know. But all of the competitors had practice at shooting at a moving target. So even if the answer is zero for the 1908 Olympic competitors, Oswald might miss by more than any of them. He had training at shooting at stationary targets. So Oswald, I would believe, could hit a moving target with a slow angular velocity, like at z-222 or z-312. But Oswald might miss by five feet or more at a high angular velocity target at z-153, which could miss the limousine, since JFK was not sitting in the center of the limousine.

In any case, if anyone can find statistics on what good shooters can do with a high angular velocity shot, of 3.2 degrees per second or higher, at distances of 129 feet, or 75 feet, I would like to hear them. And not just assume that at 75 feet, one is so close, one is bound to hit a human size target, even without being able to aim properly. I don't buy that notion.

in 1950, when an attempt was made on Truman's life, Secret Service agents were firing several shots at the main would be assassin from ranges of around 30 to 40 feet. Using handguns. And all of them missing. Except for one morally wounded policeman who got a fatal hit on the assassin from 40 feet away.

When firing under difficult conditions, like using a handgun, or using a rifle on a target with too high an angular velocity, it's not easy to hit a human size target. At 129 feet. Or 75 feet. Or even 40 feet. Misses are quite possible.

The distance at z-153 was more like 129 feet, not 75 feet

I am only questioning your calculations of the running deer Olympic shots. Here is why:
 
From your post:

“1908 Running Deer:                           3.2  dps     18.4 fps      330 ft”

Yet the description you posted from Wikipedia clearly states the targets were at 75-feet.


But the problem is, if the angular velocity is too great, a shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target. If the shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target, even one the size of a human, or a deer, I would expect them to miss at 330 feet. Or 129 feet. Or 75 feet. Even at 75 feet you need luck to hit a target of that size when you can't keep the sights lined up on the target as it moves.

Why would you assume that he couldn’t keep the sights lined up on a moving target? I have read that LHO was a member of a shooting club in Russia. And that they could only own shotguns (no rifles). I don’t claim to know what type of shooting they did with their shotguns. But a common and popular type of shooting was at “clay pigeons”. Also called skeet shooting or trap shooting depending on the specifics of how it was set up. Hitting a 110 mm diameter flying target at various and unpredictable angles of flight requires considerable shooting skills and quick reactions. Here is an exerpt regarding LHO’s reaction speed from page 211 of Robert Oswald’s book “Lee” that I find interesting:

I have some idea of the speed of Lee’s reflexes, both from my general observation of him while we were growing up and specifically because of a game we used to play. Sometimes Lee and I would walk up to each other and fake an unexpected punch, to test each other’s reactions. I discovered from this game that Lee had very rapid reflexes.

LHO reportedly delighted in situations where he could “try to prove” his self-perceived “superiority”. I can imagine that his “very rapid reflexes” would have come in handy during any shooting activities he might have had in the shooting club in Russia. Whether they were shooting at birds or rabbits or skeet or whatever, he most likely would have done well shooting at moving targets.

Also, LHO reportedly practiced by dry-firing at moving cars from the screened-in porch in New Orleans during the summer of 1963. There is no doubt that the higher angular velocity of an early shot from the sniper’s nest in Dealey Plaza would have made it a much more challenging shot than the two shots that hit JFK. But, again, I think it would have taken more than just that to cause it to miss the limo entirely.

[Gerry Down]

Also, LHO reportedly practiced by dry-firing at moving cars from the screened-in porch in New Orleans during the summer of 1963.

Marina only said he was dry firing the weapon, not that he was pointing it at cars.