We continue to see news reports that stress the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. To put these reports into context, it might help to consider the U.S. COVID-19 crude death rate as of this morning:
U.S.: 0.04176% (137,000 deaths/328.2 million population)
0.04176% is 24 times lower than 1%. A crude death rate of 1% among the U.S. population would equal 3,282,000 deaths. After nearly six months into the pandemic, we are nowhere near that number.
The 1957-1958 Asian Flu pandemic killed the modern equivalent of 216,000 Americans. Yet, there was no lockdown, no shutting down of half the economy, no putting millions of people out of work, no mass closing of schools, etc. Why did we not close schools, shut down half the economy, and put millions of people out of work? Because we decided that such a "cure" be too destructive compared to a more moderate approach.
To put this into further context, consider the following annual death tolls from other causes of death in the U.S.:
640,000 --- heart disease
590,000 --- cancer
250,000 --- medical errors
169,000 –- accidents
160,000 --- chronic lower respiratory diseases
Imagine if the major news outlets reported on medical errors in the same way that most of them have reported on COVID-19. Medical errors kill about 250,000 Americans each year, or about 684 per day, 4,700 per week, or 20,800 per month. Imagine the panic that would occur if we were subjected to daily reports like the following:
“Yesterday over 600 Americans died from medical errors.”
“Last week, 30% more Americans went to the doctor than usual, and the number of deaths from medical errors rose by 4,500.”
“The death toll from medical errors continues to rise, with over 1,800 American dying from medical errors over the last three days alone.”
“Three months into this year have seen over 60,000 Americans die from medical errors.”
COVID-19 is nothing to take lightly, especially if you are elderly or medically ill. But it is not the Black Plague or the Spanish Flu. If you look at the cold hard numbers, you will see that COVID-19 is not drastically more dangerous than the common flu.
The substantial majority of Americans who catch COVID-19 have at least a 98.7% chance of *not* dying from it, according to every statistic we have. People aged 1-49 who catch the virus have a survival rate of at least 99.5%. The **overall average** survival rate in the U.S. is 95.8%, but you really need to look at the survival rates by age group because there is a huge difference between the rates for ages 65 and over and the rates for ages 64 and below.
I believe that eventually we will look back and realize that the lockdown was a huge mistake, that a much more moderate, targeted approach would have been far better--for everyone.
