This is a logical fallacy. Any specific spot would be equally unlikely, but a missile that struck a curb would have to strike somewhere. This is like randomly picking a 4 of spades out of a deck of cards and saying the odds against picking that card are 52 to 1, so it's unlikely that you actually picked the 4 of spades.
No, this is not a logical fallacy.
If someone says:
“I will pay you 1 dollar and you can cut the deck and I will flip over the top card. If the top card is a 4 of spades, you must pay me 5 dollars. If it is any other card, you pay me nothing.”
Now, if I am foolish enough to take this bet, I cut the deck, and he appears to turn over the top card and it is the 4 of spades, it probably didn’t happen by luck. Maybe it was luck, but probably not. The four of spades was probably “guided” there.
Similarly, the lead smear occurring smack, on the corner, right where a curved line, perhaps made by the rim of a tire, is pointing to, probably did not occur there by luck. It was probably guided there by the rim of the tire.
If the lead smear was caused by a tire’s lead balancing weight, the smear occurred right where we would expect it to occur, on the corner of a curb. And it may have a curved line pointing to it.
If the lead smear was caused by a bullet fragment, it was a fluke that the fragment just happened to strike right on the corner of the curb, right on the same spot a tire rim would guide it to.
If:
• lead smears left by a car tend to occur on the corner of a curb
• lead smears left a bullet fragment tend to occur on any concrete surface
and:
• a lead smear was found and it is smack on the corner of the curb
then:
• it probably was caused by a car, not by a bullet.
Question for anyone: Is my logic in error? Is this a clear example of a logical fallacy? If so, explain.
Note, I am not saying it is an absolute certainty the lead smear was caused by a car. Only that it probably was, particularly with a curved line pointing right at the dark lead smear.