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Author Topic: Trump supporters and conspiracy theory - Part 2  (Read 470052 times)

Offline Colin Crow

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Re: Trump supporters and conspiracy theory - Part 2
« Reply #2432 on: November 16, 2020, 05:02:30 AM »
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Just a quick model to prove a point.....for the US. The numbers are daily 7day rolling average from worldometers site.

Date.               Cases                                Deaths          Deaths/Cases.                     Case ratio increase
Oct24          68102         
Nov1                  83857                           852                                                         1.23
Nov8                 112561                           962                   0.0141                                 1.34
Nov15         152000                          1146                   0.0137                              1.35
Nov22         205258 (est)                      1538(est)           0.0075

In this simple model you can see the effect of rapidly increasing case numbers on fatality rates in the short term. In this model I have used a two week lag, ie the deaths that occur are from the cases two weeks previous. I used an increase if 1.35 for next weeks ave for Nov22. It might be higher but likely about 205,000. The estimated number of deaths from the cases on Nov 8 is only 1538. This would give a death to case ratio of only  0.75%. Highly misleading and likely to be at a stage where many hospitals would be beyond capacity to cope.

The problem with US case fatality rate numbers is more complex than this, largely due to the vast underestimation of cases due to continued problems with the testing process. However you can see the how the rapid increase in case numbers can underplay the case fatality rate in the short term.

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Re: Trump supporters and conspiracy theory - Part 2
« Reply #2432 on: November 16, 2020, 05:02:30 AM »


Offline Joe Elliott

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Re: Trump supporters and conspiracy theory - Part 2
« Reply #2433 on: November 16, 2020, 05:16:06 AM »

The point that others have made that the lowering deaths per day are about to shoot up, they are right. There is a big lag between when people get sick until people die. The number dying each day has gone up somewhat moderately during the last month, up and 50%. But that is going to start changing real soon. And maybe a lot more if the hospitals are overwhelmed, which is starting to happen in certain parts of the country, and in half the country the hospitals are starting to get strained.


Just a reminder people. The 97% or 98% survival rate, or the 2% or 3% death rate, only applies to a population that has access to medical care. Much of this country in the far north is approaching hospital saturation. In the next month, if the number sick doubles, as it did in the previous mouths, up to half the newly sick won’t be able to get hospital treatment. In two months, it could be three quarters. What will their death rate be? I don’t know. But I suspect around 10%, maybe worst. Back in early April, the death rate for New York state was around 10%, so I think 10% is a conservative estimate.

For those who assume that they can get treated at a hospital, if they get very sick in the next few months, think again. Money, medical insurance, won’t necessarily insure this.

P. S. Hopefully, people will take greater efforts than before to protect themselves. These precautions must be greater than the precautions that worked well enough in the summer. But only this will prevent a disaster.

"Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid.' By the way, on November 4, you won't hear about it anymore,"
Trump, October 24, 2020


Offline Joe Elliott

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Re: Trump supporters and conspiracy theory - Part 2
« Reply #2434 on: November 16, 2020, 05:28:14 AM »

Just a quick model to prove a point.....for the US. The numbers are daily 7day rolling average from worldometers site.

Date.               Cases                                Deaths          Deaths/Cases.                     Case ratio increase
Oct24          68102         
Nov1                  83857                           852                                                         1.23
Nov8                 112561                           962                   0.0141                                 1.34
Nov15         152000                          1146                   0.0137                              1.35
Nov22         205258 (est)                      1538(est)           0.0075

In this simple model you can see the effect of rapidly increasing case numbers on fatality rates in the short term. In this model I have used a two week lag, ie the deaths that occur are from the cases two weeks previous. I used an increase if 1.35 for next weeks ave for Nov22. It might be higher but likely about 205,000. The estimated number of deaths from the cases on Nov 8 is only 1538. This would give a death to case ratio of only  0.75%. Highly misleading and likely to be at a stage where many hospitals would be beyond capacity to cope.

The problem with US case fatality rate numbers is more complex than this, largely due to the vast underestimation of cases due to continued problems with the testing process. However you can see the how the rapid increase in case numbers can underplay the case fatality rate in the short term.

:)

Correct. The situation is a lot more serious than the daily death toll would indicate on the surface. We will see last month's sickness rate reflected in next month's death rate. And multiplied by a factor of two or three if the hospitals get saturated.

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Re: Trump supporters and conspiracy theory - Part 2
« Reply #2434 on: November 16, 2020, 05:28:14 AM »


Offline Joe Elliott

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Re: Trump supporters and conspiracy theory - Part 2
« Reply #2435 on: November 16, 2020, 05:45:34 AM »

I've already answered this liberal talking point, and you keep ignoring the answer and just keep on citing liberal rags like the New York Times. New Zealand is an ISLAND and has a very low population density. How about we talk about Taiwan, which has a much higher population density--24 million people in 14K square miles vs. New Zealand's 4.8 million people in 103K square miles? Taiwan refused to impose a lockdown and kept its businesses and schools open--and Taiwan has the lowest infection and death rates in the world.

Population density of New Zealand: 25.8 per square mile.
Population density of North Dakota: 10.5 per square mile.



No one flies into New Zealand because its so out of the way. Half the world flies into the U.S.

How many are flying into North Dakota? If the problems of North Dakota are caused by the surrounding areas, why does North Dakota have a highest percentage of people infected than any of the surrounding states, indeed, now higher than any other state. 8.3 per cent have been infected, most during the last two months.



That's why the U.S. has suffered so much.

Do you really think people listen to Trump, Biden etc on this issue. People do what they want.

Good leaders set good examples. Good leaders are the earliest to wear masks and make certain they are seen wearing masks.

Good leaders don’t encourage large mass rallies, which contain people, not wearing masks, packed together, shouting to high heaven. It was bad enough for him to encourage this before the election. But to do so afterwards is going to be his legacy.

"Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid.' By the way, on November 4, you won't hear about it anymore,"
Trump, October 24, 2020


Offline Colin Crow

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Re: Trump supporters and conspiracy theory - Part 2
« Reply #2436 on: November 16, 2020, 05:55:02 AM »
Population density of New Zealand: 25.8 per square mile.
Population density of North Dakota: 10.5 per square mile.



How many are flying into North Dakota? If the problems of North Dakota are caused by the surrounding areas, why does North Dakota have a highest percentage of people infected than any of the surrounding states, indeed, now higher than any other state. 8.3 per cent have been infected, most during the last two months.



Good leaders set good examples. Good leaders are the earliest to wear masks and make certain they are seen wearing masks.

Good leaders don’t encourage large mass rallies, which contain people, not wearing masks, packed together, shouting to high heaven. It was bad enough for him to encourage this before the election. But to do so afterwards is going to be his legacy.

"Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid.' By the way, on November 4, you won't hear about it anymore,"
Trump, October 24, 2020


Australian Chinese student population in 2019 was about 260,000. NZ about 10%.

Dunning-Kruger, explains a lot.

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Re: Trump supporters and conspiracy theory - Part 2
« Reply #2436 on: November 16, 2020, 05:55:02 AM »


Offline Rick Plant

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Re: Trump supporters and conspiracy theory - Part 2
« Reply #2437 on: November 16, 2020, 12:02:00 PM »
Rick, as I see it the problems the US had were the following.

The virus essentially became politicised because you were facing a Presidential election. Trump, for all his failings, had a good chance of re-election and no obvious challenger had emerged by the new year. Trump saw the "economy" as a winner, using the DJI as the simplistic indicator for Joe Public, to prove his point. Everything in his thinking was to keep the Stock market buoyant.

The virus hit early in the new year, I believe in Washington State at first. Information at that time was sketchy, but it was obvious that Wuhan was having a serious health crisis. Unfortunately the US decided to develop their own testing kit. It was not effective early and so that caused serious issues. New York also had outbreaks, and we know the problems that caused.

Now we know that a significant number of people are asymptomatic spreaders. Also people can spread the virus for days presymtomatically. So you can see, community spread was out of control, with no real way of testing. The only way of diagnosis was via severe symptoms. The only experience with severe corona virus disease previously was with SARS, years before. That’s what many used to judge what to do but the characteristics of this virus are different.

Trump's focus was the "economy" ie. his re election. Every action taken was with that filter in place. He was the "cheerleader", not for the country, but for the DJI, his winning in November. Eventually he imposed the limited travel bans but it was too late, the virus was already spreading inside the country.

In my city we have not had a community spread case since April 14. Two days ago we had 4, today 17. We are fortunate enough to have the numbers of contact tracers to track those possibly in contact with them down. Our hospital system can cope at present. I fear for the toll on health workers and the health system in the US given the rapid growth in numbers recently.

Colin,

Donald Trump was always on track to losing the election. His approval ratings were always in the low to mid 40's and never reached 50 at any time during his illegitimate presidency. The 2018 midterm election was a determining factor of how Americans were dissatisfied with him and the GOP.

If you looked at the polls numbers from last October 2019 in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania they were pretty much accurate showing a generic Democratic candidate would defeat him by the same margin.

Donald Trump destroyed manufacturing with his bogus Chinese tariffs and trade war. Thousands of people were losing their jobs in those states as good American jobs were off shored to China. He promised new factories in those states and new jobs were supposed to be created. No factories were built or new jobs created. It was a lie to get people to vote for him. The people living there knew that and decided they weren't going to vote for him back then.     

Manufacturing entered into a recession last September 2019 and the United States entered into a recession in February before the pandemic was declared and emergency. So, it's his failed policies that destroyed the economy but the pandemic made it even worse.

Yes, Donald Trump only cared about the stock market and nothing else attempting to use Covid for his advantage. Like I said, he admitted that to Woodward on tape.     

The point is, that he knew about this pandemic back in November 2019 and was briefed several times in January. If he was a real leader, he would have been planning for a National emergency coordinating with Governors and health experts on getting testing kits, getting ready to lockdown, and making sure life saving equipment was ready to be distributed.

Instead he did nothing and let the virus take over America. Airlines restricted flights in mid January and a few days later, Donald Trump called for restrictions but flights were still coming in. So, his asinine claim he "saved millions of lives" is a joke. He spent the rest of time golfing and holding rallies and on Feb 28th attacked Democrats and called it a "hoax". The right wing media hacks echoed the same propaganda for the sheep.

Washington was having outbreaks and a top medical expert came on tv and said this is a dangerous pandemic which will alter the way we live. The next day the stock market sunk and Donald Trump went ballistic over it. That's when the propaganda started from him, his GOP Stooges and the right wing media. It was all about keeping the stock market inflated so he could claim the "economy was great" when it wasn't.

Two weeks later he finally declared a national emergency but didn't take any responsibility. He threw everything to the Governors to handle so he could blame them if things went wrong. Some states had lockdown while others didn't, and it was a half-assed operation where Governors had no equipment and had to do everything on their own.

Let's not forget Donald Trump shipped 17.8 tons of our medical equipment to China. He then blamed Obama for leaving him "nothing" when he sent it all to China. He also accused nurses and doctors of stealing the equipment for profit when they were forced to use diapers and trash bags as gowns. Many got Covid themselves because of him.

Then as we started to turn the corner on the pandemic, by finally seeing positive results with states in lockdowns, Donald Trump started demanding states to open prematurely before his task force requirements to safely reopen were even met. He wanted to boost the economy for his election and started tweeting for his thugs to LIBERATE. He then started the division and chaos where states did reopen too early and Covid never became under control to where it's worse now than in March.

The disaster happened because Donald Trump did nothing, states were not prepared, lockdowns happened too late and not long enough, right wingers refused to wear masks and follow the orders, and Donald Trump and his GOP thugs lying and pumping disinformation.

This virus never should have been politicized. This is a health crisis. If everybody worked together and had an effective plan we wouldn't have had the mass deaths and infections we have today. Also, we most likely would have resumed a normal way of life. This has been going on since March and it's worse now thanks to Republicans that did not care to save American lives.                                                 
       

Offline Rick Plant

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Re: Trump supporters and conspiracy theory - Part 2
« Reply #2438 on: November 16, 2020, 12:09:41 PM »
:)

Correct. The situation is a lot more serious than the daily death toll would indicate on the surface. We will see last month's sickness rate reflected in next month's death rate. And multiplied by a factor of two or three if the hospitals get saturated.

Hospitals are already being overwhelmed at the current rate. 1 million new cases were recorded in just this week up to 11 million total. Experts said in another week they expect over 200,000 cases a day. Hospitals will be maxed out at that rate, refrigerator trucks are being sent into cities to store the dead bodies, and these idiot morons on the right are screaming against lockdowns and claiming infections and deaths are declining.     

Offline Rick Plant

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Re: Trump supporters and conspiracy theory - Part 2
« Reply #2439 on: November 16, 2020, 01:17:23 PM »
I'm 99% certain that liberal news outlets are not going to mention this, so I will: The COVID-19 case death rate in the U.S. continues to drop. Two weeks ago, it was at 2.6%. Now, as of this morning, it is down to 2.3% (243K deaths/10.6 million cases). That means the average survival rate is up to 97.7%.

At one point during the lockdowns, the case death rate was at 5.67%. Gee, why is it that when states began to reopen and allowed people resume normal lives, the death rate almost immediately began to decrease? Maybe because forcing people to be cooped up at home for weeks is not the best way to deal with the virus?

And, Sweden's COVID-19 success story continues: While the U.S. has averaged about 800 deaths per day since August, Sweden has averaged about 4 deaths per day since August. If we adjust Sweden's numbers to our population size, that would equal about 130 deaths per day in Sweden, 82% lower than our average deaths per day.

But if Biden does take office, you can bet that the Democrats will continue to ignore fact and logic and will seek to impose their panic posture on the rest of us.

Again, the number of new COVID cases and deaths are NOT "dropping", they are drastically increasing.

We had 1 million new cases in 6 days this week. We have an average 1200 deaths per day.  Explain to me how that's "dropping" as you fraudulently claim.

If the number of cases were "dropping" as you fraudulently claim, then the numbers would barely be registering and states wouldn't be imposing new mask mandates and new lockdown orders. 

Your propaganda is a joke. When states had lockdowns, we saw a huge drop in deaths and infections. That's because infected people weren't spreading the virus to healthy people. Then Donald Trump demanded states to reopen prematurely before it was safe and we watched the numbers soar. Every state has reopened for the most part and we are now at the deadliest point during the pandemic because of it. So, what's your excuse for that? 

People were not "cooped up" during the lockdown. People could still go out and purchase essential items and order food.

New Zealand had strict lockdowns and they beat the virus so lockdowns work no matter the size of the population.

Sweden is a disaster with death and infections soaring. You continue to embarrass yourself posting nonsense as the United States is averaging 1200 deaths per day.

Biden will be taking office on January 20th because he won the election in a landslide.

Biden and Democrats listen to facts and science unlike right wingers who make up lies using disinformation to smear doctors and scientists.

Mandating masks to stop the spread of the virus and closing non essential businesses is not "panic", that's common sense logic which will save lives and help control the virus.

We tried it the Republican way and this is what we have.....a deadly disaster....that's why Donald Trump lost.

11,367,214 cases
251,901 deaths

That's what Donald Trump gave us.

On July 6th we had 3.3 million cases. 2 weeks later states began opening up and now we have 11.3 million cases. 8 million new cases because of what Michael T. Griffith is screaming about, no lockdowns with everything opened up. He has no clue what he's talking about.     
                     

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Re: Trump supporters and conspiracy theory - Part 2
« Reply #2439 on: November 16, 2020, 01:17:23 PM »