Trump’s Chances Are Slim
Jonathan Bernstein: “With under a week to go, he’s still down about 9 percentage points nationally, and there’s little sign of any real movement in either direction. Early last week, I speculated that there was still enough time for significant changes to the race. That’s much less true now. With the debates over, it’s hard to imagine anything that would spark a shift of more than a percentage point or two. And not only is Trump is being badly outspent in the final days by former Vice President Joe Biden, the current spike in the coronavirus, an issue that plays very badly for the incumbent, is unlikely to help him as the few remaining undecided voters make up their minds.”
Nate Silver: “We’re sort of getting to the point where the only way Trump can win is with a major polling error (or if the election is stolen somehow).”
No Late Shift Toward Trump
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News study has found no evidence of the kind of late surge toward Trump among undecided voters that helped produce his unexpected wins in 2016.
When pollsters asked themselves how so many missed signs that Trump would win the 2016 election, one factor they identified was a late swing toward him in the last days of the campaign.
State Polls
WISCONSIN: Biden 57%, Trump 40%
MAINE: Biden 51%, Trump 38%
MICHIGAN: Biden 49%, Trump 42%
NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 51%, Trump 47%
CALIFORNIA: Biden 65%, Trump 29%
MARYLAND: Biden 58%, Trump 33%
MASSACHUSETTS: Biden 64%, Trump 29%
GEORGIA: Biden 51%, Trump 46%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 52%, Trump 43%
FLORIDA: Biden 50%, Trump 47%
IOWA: Biden 50%, Trump 46%
ALASKA: Trump 49%, Biden 47%
MONTANA: Trump 49%, Biden 47%
