Trump supporters and conspiracy theory - Part 2

[John Tonkovich]

Mr Griffiths: since the U.S. trailed the rest of the world in testing til at least June, testing, that is, on a per capita basis, it's impossible to calculate a proper death rate, i.e. , percentage for the first 3 or 4 months of the pandemic.
Please respond. Thx.

[Rick Plant]

Yes, it is called SCIENCE

But you don't believe in science. You post disinformation. Every single piece of science refutes your bogus propaganda.   

We, the U.S., have been averaging about 800 deaths per day since mid-July. If that rate were to continue to the end of the year, that would be an additional 37,600 deaths in the U.S., plus the 245K who have already died, giving us a grand total of 282,600 deaths for the year. That is not terribly more than the number of Americans who died from the Asian Flu in 1958 (216,000 adjusted for current population), during which we did not close schools, or businesses, or churches, etc., and therefore did not cause tens of millions of people to lose their jobs, did not cause tens of thousands of people to wipe out their life savings waiting for restrictions to end, did not cause tens of thousands of businesses to shut down (about 30% of which would never come back), and did not senselessly force tens of millions of school kids to stay home.

More disinformation.

The United States is averaging over 1,000 deaths per day and the current death rate is the highest it's been since the pandemic started where Donald Trump and the right wing media called it "hoax".

Medical experts are warning in the coming weeks we will see over 2,000 deaths per day. Again, deaths are not "dropping", they are increasing.   

People lost their jobs because of Donald Trump refusing to take on the virus head on like New Zealand did. Unless you get this virus under control, the economy will always suffer because of it.

The reason we are witnessing a surge is because kids went back to school and are COVID superspreaders. Businesses opened and people are getting sick. Democrats and medical experts warned this would happen and it did.         

"Like what? Opening up states, allow mass gatherings and do away with masks and social distancing? What.... do tell?"

Well, first of all, let's remember that states that opted for no lockdowns or only mild lockdowns did just as well as, or better than, states that opted for harsh lockdowns. So your assumption that lockdowns were the correct approach is flawed from the outset. I have asked you guys several times to address this fact, but you keep ignoring it.

Florida (21M) -- 17.5K deaths/875K cases // MILD LOCKDOWN
New York (19.4M) -- 33.5K deaths/561K cases // HARSH LOCKDOWN
Georgia (10.6M) -- 8.7K deaths/408K cases // MILD LOCKDOWN
Michigan (10M) -- 8.3K deaths/275K cases // HARSH LOCKDOWN

A rational person willing to be honest would look at these numbers and conclude that the harsh lockdowns were not necessary to combat the virus.

More propaganda. If no lockdowns happened the numbers would be 10x's worse. What's flawed is your propaganda. The lockdowns didn't work because there was never a National Lockdown implemented and right wing morons in each state refused to follow them.     

Counting the Lives Saved by Lockdowns—and Lost to Slow Action

On May 20, disease modelers at Columbia University posted a preprint that concluded the US could have prevented 36,000 of the 65,300 deaths that the country had suffered as a result of COVID-19 by May 3 if states had instituted social distancing measures a week earlier. In early June, Imperial College London epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, one of the UK government’s key advisers in the early stages of the pandemic, came to a similar conclusion about the UK. In evidence he presented to a parliamentary committee inquiry, Ferguson said that if the country had introduced restrictions on movement and socializing a week sooner than it did, Britain’s official death toll of 40,000 could have been halved.

https://www.the-scientist.com/features/counting-the-lives-saved-by-lockdownsand-lost-to-slow-action-67689

Here is the approach that many disease experts and other scholars have suggested:

Focus protective measures on the two high-risk groups: the elderly and the medically ill.

Reopen schools, since people aged 1-24 face a much lower risk of death from COVID-19 than they do from the common flu. Require teachers over the age of 35, or those who are medically ill regardless of age, to wear masks at school. Require teachers who are over 65 to both mask and social distance.

Allow mass gatherings but require the elderly and the medically ill to mask and to social distance, until they can be vaccinated. For sporting events, we could even designate a reasonably sized section of seating for the elderly and the medically ill, and still require them to mask--again, until they can be vaccinated.

Allow "non-essential" businesses (they're surely essential for those who own them and who depend on them for income) to operate at full capacity, but require elderly and medically ill customers to mask, and require workers who serve/interact with them to mask during service/interaction.

If we had followed this approach from the beginning, we would have suffered far, far less economic damage, both as a nation and in many cases as individuals, and our death numbers would probably be lower than they are now, or at least no worse.

You're showing your ignorance. This has already happened and it's why new cases and deaths are surging. Kids are back in school and businesses were reopened, as a result, more mass death and infection.

Now states are being forced to lockdown again. 8 wasted months and now the pandemic is worse than it was in March.

If everybody worse a mask and the U.S. locked down for 8 weeks, scientists said the virus would be under control. We already should have done this and we wouldn't be facing this disastrous surge right now.       

[Rick Plant]

No one flies into New Zealand because its so out of the way. Half the world flies into the U.S.

That's why the U.S. has suffered so much.

Do you really think people listen to Trump, Biden etc on this issue. People do what they want.

We suffered because of Donald Trump and his stooge GOP Governors who follow his orders.

Now we will have Joe Biden who will take on this virus providing real competent leadership.   

Yeah, people do what they want and that's why coronavirus is totally out of control. All they are doing is making themselves and other people sick. Pretty soon hospitals will be at full capacity and these idiots who "do what they want to do" will not be admitted into the hospital and will die at home from a deadly airborne virus that we were told was a "hoax" by Donald Trump and the right wing media.     

[Colin Crow]

No one flies into New Zealand because its so out of the way. Half the world flies into the U.S.

That's why the U.S. has suffered so much.

Do you really think people listen to Trump, Biden etc on this issue. People do what they want.

How many Chinese students do you think fly into Australia (and NZ) in Jan and Feb to start the academic year? You thought you could develop a test that was better than others. You were wrong and it cost big time. It was a gamble. Trump dropped the ball. In the end his claim of not being a politician cost him. Look at the popularity of those who jumped on the virus from the start.

[Colin Crow]

Just a quick model to prove a point.....for the US. The numbers are daily 7day rolling average from worldometers site.

Date.               Cases                                Deaths          Deaths/Cases.                     Case ratio increase
Oct24          68102         
Nov1                  83857                           852                                                         1.23
Nov8                 112561                           962                   0.0141                                 1.34
Nov15         152000                          1146                   0.0137                              1.35
Nov22         205258 (est)                      1538(est)           0.0075

In this simple model you can see the effect of rapidly increasing case numbers on fatality rates in the short term. In this model I have used a two week lag, ie the deaths that occur are from the cases two weeks previous. I used an increase if 1.35 for next weeks ave for Nov22. It might be higher but likely about 205,000. The estimated number of deaths from the cases on Nov 8 is only 1538. This would give a death to case ratio of only  0.75%. Highly misleading and likely to be at a stage where many hospitals would be beyond capacity to cope.

The problem with US case fatality rate numbers is more complex than this, largely due to the vast underestimation of cases due to continued problems with the testing process. However you can see the how the rapid increase in case numbers can underplay the case fatality rate in the short term.

[Joe Elliott]

The point that others have made that the lowering deaths per day are about to shoot up, they are right. There is a big lag between when people get sick until people die. The number dying each day has gone up somewhat moderately during the last month, up and 50%. But that is going to start changing real soon. And maybe a lot more if the hospitals are overwhelmed, which is starting to happen in certain parts of the country, and in half the country the hospitals are starting to get strained.


Just a reminder people. The 97% or 98% survival rate, or the 2% or 3% death rate, only applies to a population that has access to medical care. Much of this country in the far north is approaching hospital saturation. In the next month, if the number sick doubles, as it did in the previous mouths, up to half the newly sick won’t be able to get hospital treatment. In two months, it could be three quarters. What will their death rate be? I don’t know. But I suspect around 10%, maybe worst. Back in early April, the death rate for New York state was around 10%, so I think 10% is a conservative estimate.

For those who assume that they can get treated at a hospital, if they get very sick in the next few months, think again. Money, medical insurance, won’t necessarily insure this.

P. S. Hopefully, people will take greater efforts than before to protect themselves. These precautions must be greater than the precautions that worked well enough in the summer. But only this will prevent a disaster.

"Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid.' By the way, on November 4, you won't hear about it anymore,"
Trump, October 24, 2020

[Joe Elliott]

Just a quick model to prove a point.....for the US. The numbers are daily 7day rolling average from worldometers site.

Date.               Cases                                Deaths          Deaths/Cases.                     Case ratio increase
Oct24          68102         
Nov1                  83857                           852                                                         1.23
Nov8                 112561                           962                   0.0141                                 1.34
Nov15         152000                          1146                   0.0137                              1.35
Nov22         205258 (est)                      1538(est)           0.0075

In this simple model you can see the effect of rapidly increasing case numbers on fatality rates in the short term. In this model I have used a two week lag, ie the deaths that occur are from the cases two weeks previous. I used an increase if 1.35 for next weeks ave for Nov22. It might be higher but likely about 205,000. The estimated number of deaths from the cases on Nov 8 is only 1538. This would give a death to case ratio of only  0.75%. Highly misleading and likely to be at a stage where many hospitals would be beyond capacity to cope.

The problem with US case fatality rate numbers is more complex than this, largely due to the vast underestimation of cases due to continued problems with the testing process. However you can see the how the rapid increase in case numbers can underplay the case fatality rate in the short term.

Correct. The situation is a lot more serious than the daily death toll would indicate on the surface. We will see last month's sickness rate reflected in next month's death rate. And multiplied by a factor of two or three if the hospitals get saturated.

[Joe Elliott]

I've already answered this liberal talking point, and you keep ignoring the answer and just keep on citing liberal rags like the New York Times. New Zealand is an ISLAND and has a very low population density. How about we talk about Taiwan, which has a much higher population density--24 million people in 14K square miles vs. New Zealand's 4.8 million people in 103K square miles? Taiwan refused to impose a lockdown and kept its businesses and schools open--and Taiwan has the lowest infection and death rates in the world.

Population density of New Zealand: 25.8 per square mile.
Population density of North Dakota: 10.5 per square mile.

No one flies into New Zealand because its so out of the way. Half the world flies into the U.S.

How many are flying into North Dakota? If the problems of North Dakota are caused by the surrounding areas, why does North Dakota have a highest percentage of people infected than any of the surrounding states, indeed, now higher than any other state. 8.3 per cent have been infected, most during the last two months.

That's why the U.S. has suffered so much.

Do you really think people listen to Trump, Biden etc on this issue. People do what they want.

Good leaders set good examples. Good leaders are the earliest to wear masks and make certain they are seen wearing masks.

Good leaders don’t encourage large mass rallies, which contain people, not wearing masks, packed together, shouting to high heaven. It was bad enough for him to encourage this before the election. But to do so afterwards is going to be his legacy.

"Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid.' By the way, on November 4, you won't hear about it anymore,"
Trump, October 24, 2020