So we got a "Fuzzy" Joe supporter swearing by "Exit Polling"? And they also don't think "16" is going to Repeat Itself? Double Dumb!
No election repeats itself. Are you that ignorant? And Royell calls himself a "consultant". Joe Biden is outperforming Clinton everywhere and with every demographic. Donald Trump has lost large chunks of his base and is underperforming everywhere in every demographic. He is only leading in Tennessee by 9 points. He won in 2016 by 26. Also, 50% of Americans are not voting for Donald Trump no matter what.
General Wesley Clark slam dunks Trump regimeIf you’re outraged that the Trump regime is using some kind of secret police to kidnap peaceful protesters in Portland, you’re not the only one. Large groups of outraged moms are now marching in several major cities. And now retired General Wesley Clark is speaking up as well:
Now America has secret police? Deployed against the wishes of local government! No names, no badges, look like military! One of the worst offenses against our democracy in American history. Please, America, turn this back.This comes even as the Oregon Attorney General is taking legal action against the Trump regime over the Portland debacle, and the U.S. Attorney for Oregon has ordered an investigation. Meanwhile, the leaders of other cities such as Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot are vowing to keep Trump’s secret police out by any legal means necessary.
This is why Donald Trump won’t get away with itWhen Donald Trump sent his henchmen to Portland to kidnap peaceful protesters and take them away in unmarked cars, some observers feared that it meant Trump had magically defeated us all. But Palmer Report predicted that the backlash against him would be swift and overwhelming. Sure enough, we’re now seeing that.
Take a look at what’s developed as a direct result of Trump’s Portland incursion:
The Trump secret police never counted on facing this implacable, determined adversary: moms. Really pissed off moms... #NoSecretPolice #wallofmoms
You want to know how bad Trump’s messed up?
Here are the groups of Moms rising up to protest federal invasions.
Portland: @WallOfMoms
NYC: @WallofMoms_NYC
St. Louis: @StlWom
Chicago: @WallOfMomsChi
North Carolina: @WallofMomsNC
That’s right, groups of angry moms have assembled in cities all across the country, in order to fight back against Donald Trump’s vow to illegally take over American cities. Trump has a fairly consistent habit of trying to pull off the worst of his antics in secret, and then backing down if he gets caught and the pushback is massive. We’re guessing that if the pushback continues, he’ll back down on this too. After all, Trump is a coward – and moms aren’t.
GOP Feuding Linked to Trump Sinking In the Polls“Tensions among congressional Republicans fueled by the party’s diminishing electoral fortunes broke out into the open this week — as GOP lawmakers sparred over the shape of the next coronavirus aid package, how vigorously to stand behind President Trump and which primaries to wade into that could help determine control of the Senate in November,” the Washington Post reports.
“The battles this week were a microcosm of the broader reckoning over the party’s future and how strong the populist tenets of Trumpism will hold after the president leaves office. The fractures are emerging now because of worries that the party faces doom at the polls this fall owing to Trump’s handling of the pandemic and his resulting falling poll numbers against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.”
Polls Show Biden Is the ‘Law and Order’ CandidateA new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump on the issue of “crime and safety” by nine points, 50% to 41%.
Aaron Blake: “The finding echoes what we’ve seen from other pollsters. A Pew Research Center poll from mid-June showed Biden led Trump 46% to 43% on which candidate could ‘effectively handle law enforcement and criminal justice issues.’ A Kaiser Family Foundation poll from late June directly employed the ‘law and order’ phrasing, finding voters trusted Biden to handle maintaining it by a 51-41 margin — virtually identical to the Post-ABC poll.”
“To the extent that there is a law-and-order candidate at this point, it appears to be Biden.”
Public’s Mood Turns Grim; Trump Trails Biden on Most Personal Traits, Major Issues
Just 17% say they are ‘proud’ when thinking about state of the U.S.In the presidential contest, Donald Trump faces a 10 percentage point deficit in his race against Joe Biden: 54% of registered voters say if the election were held today, they would support Biden or lean toward voting for him, while 44% support Trump or lean toward supporting him.
Americans are deeply unhappy with the state of the nation. As the United States simultaneously struggles with a pandemic, an economic recession and protests about police violence and racial justice, the share of the public saying they are satisfied with the way things are going in the country has plummeted from 31% in April, during the early weeks of the coronavirus outbreak, to just 12% today.
53% majority says they are not hopeful about the current situation of the United States.
Biden Opens Up Wide Lead NationallyA new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump in the presidential race by 15 points among registered voters, 55% to 40%.
However, Biden’s margin reduces to 54% to 44% among likely voters.
Trump’s job approval is now 39% to 57%.
Key finding: “Trump’s recent decline in support is concentrated in states that have averaged at least 30 daily coronavirus cases per 100,000 residents over the past week, a group that includes Florida, Texas, Arizona and Georgia.”
Biden Widens His Electoral College LeadInside Elections has a new Electoral College forecast with Joe Biden beating Donald Trump 319 to 188 and just 33 electoral votes still a Toss Up.
“While the precise cause can be argued, Trump’s job rating has been on a precipitous decline over the last two months, not only putting a second term increasingly out of reach but potentially wreaking havoc on GOP candidates down the ballot…”
For comparison, the consensus electoral map has Biden leading 320 to 125 with 93 electoral votes still a Toss Up.
Trump Faces Widespread Distrust on CoronavirusA new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds Americans’ views of President Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic have deteriorated significantly as cases rise across the country and personal fears of becoming infected persist.
Key finding: “More than half of the public — 52% — now disapproves ‘strongly’ of Trump’s handling of the outbreak, roughly double the percentage who say they strongly approve of his efforts and an increase from 36% in strong disapproval since March.”
Republicans See Trump Falling Into an Abyss“A sudden shake-up of President Trump’s campaign was an attempt to refocus a reelection effort cratering under the weight of a deadly pandemic, a stalled economy and a national reckoning on racial injustice,” the Washington Post reports.
“But numerous Republicans and Trump allies said Thursday that the personnel overhaul — demoting Brad Parscale and replacing him with Bill Stepien as campaign manager — does little to address the main problem facing the struggling Trump campaign: the president himself and his chronically self-destructive behavior.”
“In Trump’s orbit and Republican circles, there is growing unease and even panic over Trump’s conduct as allies fret that the president, who lags behind presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden in both public and private polling, is free-falling into a political abyss.”
Trump’s 50% ProblemFirst Read says President Trump has a 50% problem:
50% of all registered voters in our poll “strongly” disapprove of the president.
50% say there is no chance at all they will vote for him.
50% say they’re “very uncomfortable” about his candidacy.
51% are backing Joe Biden in the horserace, versus 40% for Trump.
“One of the old maxims of American politics used to be that an incumbent (for any office) needs to be at 50% to be safe for re-election — otherwise there’s a majority of voters who exist that don’t support him or her. But Trump has a different problem at hand: He’s got 50% (or more) of the national electorate saying they strongly oppose him.”
Biden Leads In ArizonaA new OH Predictive Insights poll in Arizona finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 49% to 44%.
Even If the Polls Are Really Off, Trump Is Still In TroubleNate Cohn: “With Joe Biden claiming almost a double-digit lead in national polls, one question still seems to loom over the race: Can we trust the polls after 2016?”
“It’s a good question. But for now, it’s not as important as you might guess. If the election were held today, Mr. Biden would win the presidency, even if the polls were exactly as wrong as they were four years ago.”
“The reason is simple: His lead is far wider than Hillary Clinton’s was in the final polls, and large enough to withstand another 2016 polling meltdown.”
Biden Expands Lead In Another PollA new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds Joe Biden leading the presidential race nationally by 11 points, 51% to 40%.
Trump’s approval rate dropped to 42% to 56%.
Said pollster Peter Hart: “President Trump has hit the trifecta in the misery market. The three key indicators—job rating, personal feelings, attitudes on re-election—are all deeply submerged underwater. They represent the best measure of the standing and political strength of an incumbent president.”
Biden Widens Lead to 15 Points NationallyA new Quinnipiac poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump nationally by 15 points, 52% to 37%.
Key finding: Trump’s approval rate is now a dismal 36% to 60% — a 6 point drop in his job approval compared to last month.
Said pollster Tim Malloy: “Yes, there’s still 16 weeks until Election Day, but this is a very unpleasant real time look at what the future could be for President Trump. There is no upside, no silver lining, no encouraging trend hidden somewhere in this poll for the president.”
Coronavirus Spins Out of Control While Trump WatchesWashington Post: “While most developed countries have managed to control the coronavirus crisis, the United States under Trump continues to spiral out of control, according to public health experts, with a staggering 4.1 million Americans infected and more than 146,000 dead.”
“There is no cohesive national strategy, apart from unenforced federal health guidelines. Instead, the administration is offering a patchwork of solutions, often in reaction to outbreaks after they occur. Although Trump and his team declare sweeping objectives, such as reopening schools, they have largely shirked responsibility for developing and executing plans to achieve them, putting the onus instead on state and local authorities.”
Trump Approval Hits New LowsThe Navigator tracking poll finds President Trump’s job approval rating has hit a new low in the history of the poll, 39% to 59%.
For comparison, the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows Trump’s approval at 40% to 55%.
Biden Way Ahead In PennsylvaniaA new Monmouth poll in Pennsylvania shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 13 points among registered voters, 53% to 40%.
Key takeaway: “Biden is doing especially well in ten counties where the vote margins were closest in the 2016 presidential election. The Democrat currently holds a 54% to 35% lead among registered voters in these swing counties.”
Said pollster Patrick Murray: “Even taking into account any polling from four years ago, Biden is clearly doing well in swing areas over Clinton. The Democrat has roots in this region which may be helping him, but there seems to be an overall erosion of support for Trump compared to 2016.”
Biden Maintains Wide National LeadA new Economist/YouGov poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race nationally, 49% to 40%.
Trump’s job approval is now 39% to 54%.
A new Change Research poll finds Biden leading 51% to 41%. Biden also leads in six major battleground states:
Arizona: Biden 51%, Trump 45%
Florida: Biden 50%, Trump 43%
Michigan: Biden 48%, Trump 42%
North Carolina: Biden 47%, Trump 46%
Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 42%
Wisconsin: Biden 48%, Trump 42%
It’s Actually Trump That Has an Enthusiasm ProblemMichael Tesler: “First, while Biden voters may not be all that excited about voting for Biden, they’re very enthusiastic about voting against Trump. And that gives Biden a pretty strong edge, because Trump supporters don’t despise Biden the way they despised Hillary Clinton in 2016. In fact, according to survey data from the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape project, the share of Trump voters who rate Biden unfavorably is consistently much lower than the share of Biden voters who rate Trump negatively — nearly 30 percentage points lower as of the last survey conducted at the end of June.”
“Second, because Trump voters don’t dislike Biden as much as Biden voters dislike Trump, Biden actually has an advantage in net enthusiasm (calculated as the difference between a candidate’s ‘very favorable’ and ‘very unfavorable’ rating). The gap on this metric has widened between the two in the past month, too.”
