The First Shot

[Mitch Todd]

Personally, I think jiggle analysis is a load of bollocks.

CBS tested the idea in the late '60s  and found that it had validity. The problem is there are any number of causes of panning errors. Alvarez's Blur kind of analysis can filter out where shots can't be. CBS had the photography experts at the consulting firm EEG look at the problem, and they found an alternate way of looking at the data to come up with a smaller set of possible shot locations. However, no one seems to like the results.

[Dan O'meara]

CBS tested the idea in the late '60s  and found that it had validity. The problem is there are any number of causes of panning errors. Alvarez's Blur kind of analysis can filter out where shots can't be. CBS had the photography experts at the consulting firm EEG look at the problem, and they found an alternate way of looking at the data to come up with a smaller set of possible shot locations. However, no one seems to like the results.

The problem is there are any number of causes of panning errors

This is why I think jiggle analysis is bollocks.
It's not that I disagree that a loud noise, such as a rifle shot, can cause the camera to jiggle. I just don't believe this is the only reason for the camera to jiggle and, as such, it is a futile exercise assigning certain "jiggles" to a rifle shot.
Zapruder is an old man with vertigo stood on a plinth. The idea that he can perform some kind of totally smooth, robotic pan of the camera as he follows the limo is a non-starter. At the moment of the head-shot the limo has almost fallen out of the bottom of the frame!!
So which jiggles are his shaky old hand and which rifle shots?

As I understand it, there are five jiggle episodes in the Z-film, yet over 160 witnesses reported hearing only three clearly audible shots.
How does that work?

I accept the possibility that a jiggle might be caused by a rifle shot.
I do not accept that jiggle analysis of the Z-film can determine when the shots were fired.

[Charles Collins]

I wonder if this might be Ronald Knowles? ( "Installation of White House Army Signal Agency Equipment in New Limousine ... 15 June 1961" Link )

I find some of the human-interest stories around the JFK assassination quite interesting. Put aside the endless cycle of conspiracy wars and just read a book like "The Day Kennedy Was Shot" or "The Vantage Point". The Kennedy family history and RFK Campaign are very rich in history.

Looking into it just now, it's a Ford Licensed product, meaning "Ford Motor Company has specified allowed uses for this content, including editorial and non-commercial use." I guess a modeller can submit their product and request an endorsement, probably involving a fee to Ford. Seems to be no special access to the vehicle or information from Ford, and one site says the "modeling based on photos available on Google." The model is "real-world scale" and 616 cm long. However that is 242.5"  which is a bit short. Superficially, though, the model at first seems authentic.

It may be that a stock Lincoln Continental is more accurate because it's directly scanned in high-poly. But then one has to take that model and coach it into the 100-X. I think I'm getting pretty close to a reasonably accurate model.

The Hess & Eisenhardt company closed down last year. Maybe somebody from the company has the 100-X plans at home or is selling it online. That would be quite a thing to have.

Yes, the unidentified man in the JFK Library photo does have a resemblance to the Ron Knowles photo from the VFW newsletter. Good eye there Jerry! I sent an email to the commander of that VFW post to see if there is anyone that might could confirm that it is Ron. Hopefully, we will hear back from them soon.

You are probably right about Ford’s endorsement of the model not meaning that they furnished dimensions. I did recently acquire a 1/24th scale die cast model of the Limo. It is made by a company named Lucky Die Cast Products Limited. It is also licensed by Ford, etc. I used a digital caliper to measure it. And when multiplied by 24 it is 248.4” long and 77.2” wide. I wonder if the die cast model and the virtual model are both done by the same company.

[Jack Nessan]

No – this is presenting an opinion.

I am not presenting an opinion.
The witness statements regarding whether or not JFK had passed them at the time of the first shot is not my opinion.
The irony is that, as we shall see, all you do is offer your own hugely biased opinion without a scrap of evidence to back it up.



The statements of the witnesses pictured show, unanimously, that JFK had passed their position at the time of the first shot [as usual, statements lifted from Pat Speer's website]:

JUNE DISHONG: [taken from a letter written on the day of the assassination]
                        "His arm in the air waving… He drops his arm as they go by, possibly 20 feet. Suddenly--a sound. Gun shots? So hard to tell above the clamor of the crowd. The president bent forward into his wife’s lap as his arm slipped off the side of the car. Jackie circled him with her arm. Another shot. Panic among the people. Woman with children. Parents pushing them to the ground. No one knows where the shots are coming from. A cry. The President has been shot. A third shot, people scatter. I can't believe what I have seen.

Dishong specifically states that JFK had passed her position at the time of the first shot - this is not my opinion.

PEGGY BURNEY: [A first person account  published in the Dallas Times-Heraldthe day after the assassination]
                         "When the President's car made the curve around the corner, he was smiling and waving...he was happy and Jackie was happy and smiling as they passed. The car had passed about 15 feet beyond me when I heard the first shot. I did not realize it was a shot; I thought it was a backfire. The President ducked; instinctively I told myself 'something is happening,' but nobody knew what."


Burney could not be any more specific - the Presidential limo was 15ft beyond her position when she heard the first shot - this is not my opinion.

JEAN NEWMAN: [ From a statement to the Dallas Sheriff’s Department on the day of the assassination]
                       "I was standing right on this side of the Stemmons Freeway sign, about halfway between the sign and the edge of the building on the corner… The motorcade had just passed me when I heard something that I thought was a firecracker at first, and the President had just passed me, because after he had just passed, there was a loud report, it just scared me, and I noticed that the President jumped, he sort of ducked his head down, and I thought at the time that it probably scared him too."

Newman is certain JFK had passed her position at the time of the first shot - this is not my opinion.

ERNEST BRANDT: [Oral History interview performed for the Sixth Floor Museum, 5-12-94]
                          "He was kind of casually smiling…acknowledging the crowd and waving casually. Nothing had happened by the time the limo was exactly opposite us, from the curb straight out to the street. Nothing had happened. But I was still watching Kennedy from the back...And of course, all I could see above the back seat was his shoulders, his neck, and head…I think the limousine was probably about 60 or 70 feet past us, three or four seconds I guess from the time. It wasn't moving real slow but yet not real fast either, y'know. And--60 or 70 feet past us, then BAM! the first shot was fired and boy it just reverberated around Dealey Plaza something terrible."

[11-22-95 article in the Dallas Morning News]
"Ernest Brandt, a salesman, watched from the curb as President John F Kennedy's motorcade turned down the Elm Street slope toward Stemmons Freeway... "Kennedy's limo was about 15 to 20 feet past us when the first shot was fired. I was still looking at him and I saw his arms come up."

[July 2000 hand-written, 3-page letter from Brandt to researcher Don Roberdeau published in part on Roberdeau's Men of Courage website and posted in total on the alt.assassination.JFK newsgroup in 2009]
 "President Kennedy was about 15 feet from me when the FIRST SHOT WAS FIRED!!! He was SLIGHTLY PAST ME at a "ONE O'CLOCK POSITION" in relation to my location on the NORTH SIDE of the Elm street curb.


Brandt could not be more explicit - he was looking at JFK from behind at the time of the first shot - this is not my opinion.

JOHN TEMPLIN: [7-28-95 Oral History interview for the Sixth Floor Museum]
"Well, as the limo drew even with us, well, the president was waving and, of course, grinning. He had just a great big smile on his face...And just about, I would say, thirty feet past us, we heard what I personally thought was a motorcycle backfire, and I... the president kind of threw his shoulders up a little bit and kind of laid his head back on the back of the seat, and I thought, well, he’s just playing and playing the crowd and acting silly, you know.

Templin is certain JFK had passed his position at the time of the first shot - this is not my opinion.

All five witnesses are unequivocal that JFK had passed their position at the time of the first shot.
The best representation of where these witnesses were stood in relation to where the limo was at specific Z-frames is Don Roberdeau's map.
As I have already posted, when we map their positions in Dealey Plaza compared to the limo position at various Z-frames it becomes apparent that the first shot cannot have taken place any earlier than z222/z223.

Again, this is not my opinion.
Unlike your own various proclamations, that are completely unsupported and often appear to be figments of your imagination.
Here's a few of unsupported claims:

A better location for the first shot would be Z210 to Z214 based on Zapruder Frames.

This will be the third time I've asked you to support this claim.
Why will you not support your claims?

Because I think it was a little earlier because you can use the Zapruder film with the aid of a few pieces of information and the witness statements to clarify where it actually took place.

What in Zapruder makes you think this? What pieces of information? What witness statements?
Why won't you provide any support for your claims?

In Willis no 5 (Z202), JFK is about even with Jean Newman. In Z207 he is past Jean Newman and almost even with the secretaries.

What are you basing this on?
Is it just a case of 'that's what it looks like to you'?

Because you can visibly see that they are reacting to having been shot.

You previously made a statement that you could see JFK reacting to a shot in z223 - when JFK isn't even visible!!
How can you make such a statement?
What is it you're seeing that makes you think JFK is reacting as he emerges from behind the Stemmons sign?

If you believe all five witnesses were wrong when they said JFK had passed their position at the time of the first shot, that's up to you.
If you believe there is something wrong with the method I'm using above to locate the position of the first shot, let's hear it.
But try and support your arguments with something a little more solid than 'that's what it looks like to me'.

If nothing else you seem to have convinced yourself as to where the shot took place. If you want the shot to be at Z223, you certainly can have it. All you have to do is ignore some witness statements, place credibility on distance estimation provided by others, and ignore what is readily seen in the Zapruder film. It really does not matter as long as you place it by those witnesses that I provided you with. The book ends to when the shot was fired are Jean Newman and the Chisms. After that anyone can look at the Zapruder film, Willis 5, Bronson 3, and other snapshots and make their own assessments. It will always be just a guess and nothing more because the sign obscured the moment it took place.

 

[Dan O'meara]

If nothing else you seem to have convinced yourself as to where the shot took place. If you want the shot to be at Z223, you certainly can have it. All you have to do is ignore some witness statements, place credibility on distance estimation provided by others, and ignore what is readily seen in the Zapruder film. It really does not matter as long as you place it by those witnesses that I provided you with. The book ends to when the shot was fired are Jean Newman and the Chisms. After that anyone can look at the Zapruder film, Willis 5, Bronson 3, and other snapshots and make their own assessments. It will always be just a guess and nothing more because the sign obscured the moment it took place.

Again, nothing but unsupported opinion.

It will always be just a guess and nothing more because the sign obscured the moment it took place.

What evidence leads you to this opinion?

If it's just a case of "it looks that way to me", you needn't respond.

[Andrew Mason]

You appear to have carried those mistakes through to your own method of measurement. That's how we now have Mason's Voodoo Geometry.

Ok. I do owe you an apology, Jerry. Your model is fairly accurate. It is really your positions of the two men, that I question. 

limo_interior_with_measurements_CAD.jpg

When I did my Sketchup model I used measurements and inferences to determine the dimensions of the doors and rear seat depth:



In your critique of my model, you drew depth of the rear seating compartment in my model incorrectly. The arrow goes back to the back of the rear seat back. 

Here is my determination of the seating positions of the two men based on the best photo taken during the motorcade (on Main St.) using sight lines projected to the edges of the left rear hand-hold:



You have JFK 's midline 6 inches from the right side of the car, by my measurement.  He needs to be farther left in the position I have shown.  This is where the sightline to the right of the right side of the left rear hand hold passes just through a bit of his hair in the back.  You have JBC's position too far left.  The sight line to the left edge of the left hand-hold grazes the right side of his head.

So, on Main Street at least JBC's midline was only about half a head left of JFK's midline.

[Dan O'meara]

[Jerry Organ]

Yes, Dan, that would be more typical of how the two men were seated than Mason's cherry-pick of the Sisco photo.

The Sisco Photo is one of the rare moments when Connally leaned to his right the same moment Kennedy was leaning to his left. I am glad to see others here challenge Mason on the horse-pucks he been peddling here.