The First Shot

[John Tonkovich]

Hi Andrew, I certainly have to agree that the available evidence rules out a shot as early as z150-160.
The opening post of this thread focusses on the SS follow-up car behind the Presidential limo and compares it to the clear reactions of the SS agents in Altgens 6. Rufus Youngblood describes the first shot as an 'explosive noise', agents Ready and  Landis describe reacting 'immediately' but in the Z-film, which shows these agents up to z270 no such reaction can be seen. For me this certainly rules out a shot as early as z150-160.
The same clip also shows Rosemary Willis 'reacting' to the sound of a shot while a carload of SS agents show no reaction. I find this highly unlikely.
You make a point about Jack Ready but the Z-film, as I see it, doesn't show Ready distinctly turning to his right. He looks to his left then slowly moves his head right but we certainly don't see him turning to his "right rear". To me it looks like a perfectly normal head turn as he scans the crowd.
I'm not 100% sure about the points you're making about Betzner and Hughes (I'm possibly being a bit slow here)
Phil Willis comes across as a credible witness who seems to 'timestamp' the moment of the first shot but I personally would like more evidence that backs up his statement as it's not enough to rely on a single witness.
The problem with this issue is that there are so many contradictory 'ear-witness' statements. On his website, Pat Speers analyses a comprehensive list of witnesses relating to the assassination:

"...we’ve looked at the words of 293 witnesses to see if they add up to something. Of this 293, 88 failed to tell us much that would indicate when and how the shots were fired. Of the remaining 205, 102 made statements suggesting there were three shots fired, with the first shot being heard between Z-190 and Z-224 and the last 2 shots being heard in rapid succession after a short pause. Another 57 made statements suggesting that the first shot was heard between Z-190 and Z-224, but made no statements indicating the last two shots were bunched together. Another 13 heard the last two shots fired closely together, and yet another could only swear to hearing two shots, but thought there may have been a third, which was wholly consistent with the last two being fired closely together. This means that 173 of the 205 witnesses described the shots in a relatively consistent manner. Of the remaining 32, 18 heard four or more shots, and another 3 made statements indicating there was a shot after the head shot."


My challenge is to get, what I believe to be, the best fit between the ear-witness statements and any evidence that can be gleaned from photographic/video evidence.

Altgens is your friend. ( Or should be.)
Please review his testimony. Thx.

[Dan O'meara]

Altgens is your friend. ( Or should be.)
Please review his testimony. Thx.

I'm aware you put a lot of stock in Altgens' testimony but I don't understand why. He describes taking a photo just after the first 'noise'. As I understand it he is describing Altgens 6, a photo taken just after the first audible shot. He then goes on to describe the shot at z313. I'm not sure what you're reading in his testimony that I'm missing.

[John Tonkovich]

In his testimony, Altgens was only sure of two shots, but guessed there could have been a third shot that fitted in between the shot he heard before he took the photo at Z255 and the head shot. Mason places his LN second shot (it narrowly misses Kennedy, going on to strike Connally) about Z271.

In 1985, "Ike" Altgens told Richard B. trask:

    "My first instinct was ‘well, they’re shooting firecrackers up there,’
     or some kind of celebration on behalf of the President. And then
     I hear it again as the car comes on down."

So here Altgens claims he heard "firecrackers up there" (or "some kind of celebration", presumably referring to the sound of a shot -- though Altgens didn't know at that moment it was gunfire -- when the car was on upper Elm), then heard it again as the "car comes on down" which I believe would be when he took his picture.

Therefore there could have been two shots fired before Altgens took his photograph at Z255.

Who is this "Mason " you mention?
Also, there could have been 129 shots fired, with s suppressor, before Z255.
Thankfully, the SS and FBI helped us out by commissioning two separate surveys, which placed only three shots (and hits) including a final shot at 4 + 95.
The West surveys, presented by the late Thomas Purvis, are a great read.

[Dan O'meara]

Who is this "Mason " you mention?

This really shows how much you read through the thread before posting 

[Dan O'meara]

Betzner said the shot he heard after taking his picture was followed by the head shot. Here's my earlier reply:

     As Betzner goes out of the Zapruder film in frame 207, he
     continues to lower his camera and is not looking down.
     So Betzner winding his camera as he hears a shot isn't
     proof of your first shot at ca.Z200.

     Assuming he winds his camera shortly thereafter (post-Z207),
     it might be that the shot he heard while winding the camera
     was the proposed shot in the early-Z220s.

Betzner's WC testimony:

"I took another picture as the President's car was going down the hill on Elm Street. I started to wind my film again and I heard a loud noise. I thought that this noise was either a firecracker or a car had backfired. I looked up and it seemed like there was another loud noise in the matter of a few seconds. I looked down the street and I could see the President's car and another one and they looked like the cars were stopped. Then I saw a flash of pink like someone standing up and then sitting back down in the car."

Here he is describing taking Betzner#3 (as the President's car was going down the hill) roughly equivalent to z186. After taking this picture he states that he had "started to wind my film again and I heard a loud noise". This 'loud noise' is presumably the first audible shot but there is no clear measure of the time between the taking of Betzner#3 and the first shot. The only reason to bring Betzner into things is to demonstrate that there wasn't a first shot before z186. His testimony provides a very rough 'timestamp' as to when the first shot occurred. Nothing more.

[Dan O'meara]

There is a "buffet" of evidence in the JFK assassination that allows people with various theories to pick and isolate witness statements and impressions that support their case. Some of the theories are quite impressive; the Mason Theory presented an ingenious pathway.

 
I think that's really well put, a "buffet" of evidence.

What's striking is that it seems possible to pick several differing 'narratives' and have a range of supporting evidence for each.

The lack of any reaction from Landis, Hickey and Ready I don't think is so easily brushed away. Ready says he immediately turned to his "right rear". We don't see this in Zapruder but we do see this in Altgens6. Ready is obviously recalling the moment accurately as we see it confirmed in Altgens6 and I find it difficult to accept that these specially trained SS agents would take two to three seconds to react to an "explosive noise".
But, as you say, there's more to the case than this point. That's just the particular part of the "buffet" I am selecting from.

[Steve M. Galbraith]

To return to Rosemary Willis: She (for me) is clearly reacting, as shown below, much earlier than Z200 to "something" (assuming the clip below is synchronized with the frames correctly). She completely stops at around Z190 but is looking away from the limo while jogging after roughly Z160. In several interviews she said she was reacting to the sound of a gun shot (she never testified to the WC).

One "problem" is that everyone around her appears not to be reacting at all. It's amazing really. Something got her attention (it couldn't have been her father calling her; he's still taking a photo) but no one else?

[Bill Chapman]

I think that's really well put, a "buffet" of evidence.

What's striking is that it seems possible to pick several differing 'narratives' and have a range of supporting evidence for each.

The lack of any reaction from Landis, Hickey and Ready I don't think is so easily brushed away. Ready says he immediately turned to his "right rear". We don't see this in Zapruder but we do see this in Altgens6. Ready is obviously recalling the moment accurately as we see it confirmed in Altgens6 and I find it difficult to accept that these specially trained SS agents would take two to three seconds to react to an "explosive noise".
But, as you say, there's more to the case than this point. That's just the particular part of the "buffet" I am selecting from.

I'd go with 'smorgasbord' over 'buffet'. Just seems more vivid, far-reaching, somehow. Well, at least somewhat more stylish. And what's wrong with a little flair, eh wot?

But I guess it depends on which side one's bread is buttered..