The First Shot

[Andrew Mason]

The various arguments I've presented in this thread have led me to a first shot at z223. Assuming this came from the sniper's nest the shooter would have approximately one second to take aim and fire after the limo emerges from behind the oak tree (at z207). I don't really know about these things but it seems reasonable to me.

The problem with a first shot at z223, apart from the need for an instantaneous facial and hand reaction, is the relative timing of the shots.  As I have pointed out, the overwhelming timing evidence is that:

1. there were 3 shots.
2. the head shot was the last shot
3. the last two shots were in rapid succession, the second shot being perceptibly closer to the third than the first:  1...........2......3  (A shot, a pause and two shots in rapid succession - see for example SA Lawson, Sheriff Craig, Ladybird Johnson, Luke Mooney, Mary Woodward, Pearl Springer all set out in my tabulation

The FBI determined that 2.3 seconds is about the fastest that two aimed shots could be made with Oswald's MC.

2.3 seconds or 42 frames prior to z313 is z271.

If the first shot was at z223, that would make the first interval 48 frames (271-223). That is a ratio of 48:42 which does not fit with the shot pattern.  But a first shot around z190-200 (81:42 or 71:42) fits the pattern.  That shot pattern fits pretty much the rest of the evidence as well - except Connally being hit in the back by z230.  Perhaps he wasn't.  Perhaps he was just turning around to see the President after realizing, in horror, that he had just heard a rifle shot and was fearing an assassination unfolding.  After all, both he and Nelly said he turned around to see the President before he was hit in the back.  By z271 there was a  clear path from the SN to Connally's back that just passes to the right of JFK's head.  Hickey said that JFK's hair flew up on the right side at the time of the second shot but it did not hit him.  Where should we look for that hair flying up?

[Charles Collins]

I'm a bit lost Charles.
Why does any of that conversation have to take place before the Altgens pic?
Why isn't it a pic of the opening sentence - "“Landis elaborated that he looked around, “observed nothing unusual,” and “began to think to think the sound had been that of a firecracker.”
The reference to Kennedy's head splitting open is obviously something that took place after the Altgens pic.
Why would you say that happened in the 1.75 seconds between z223 and z255?

It appears to me that by the time Altgens 6 was taken that the looking around at things in various locations and observing nothing unusual, then discussing it, phase has already taken place. And that all three of them are looking in the direction of the TSBD. Therefore it appears that they had already figured out the direction of the shots. Most of the people in that photograph appear to be looking intently at the President and can see that he is in distress. If Landis, Ready, and Hickey are only now making their initial reactions, then I believe that they are truly a few steps behind most everyone else.

[Andrew Mason]

Jerry: You're a dinosaur leftist. Your ideology is bankrupt, out of date, and is rejected by the vast majority of Americans. You can't see people; you see race and argue backwards from there. Check the date on your computer; it says 2020 not 1860 or even 1960.

You're welcome to viewing things like you do and I'm welcome to calling it out for the neanderthal thinking that it is.

As bone-headed as Jerry can be on some things, calling him a neanderthal leftist is somewhat unfair (although he, like all of us, is perhaps a bit of a neanderthal since we all have some neanderthal genes).

Perhaps you should first define what a leftist is. Most people who were called leftists 80+ years ago during the depression, advocating for New Deal safety nets like unemployment insurance, and basic social security/pensions would now be mainstream. 

In any event "leftist" is only a pejorative term to those who have a false view that "leftists" are fiscally irresponsible and want government to take over our lives while conservatives stand for fiscally responsible smaller government and greater individual freedom.  One could make the argument that it is the other way around.  "Leftists" would like to see everyone, including the poor and downtrodden experience greater economic and social freedom through such things as affordable health care, education and better pay.  Conservative Eisenhower expanded the role of government tremendously during the 50s.  Nixon reformed healthcare and brought in Medicare for seniors. Free spending Reagan tripled the national debt (from $738 Billion to $2.1 Trillion).  That "leftist" president Clinton actually ran 4 straight surpluses and brought down the federal debt over his 8 years in office. Bush ended that with 8 straight deficits totaling $3.2 trillion and drove the U.S. and the world to the edge of economic collapse. Obama brought in the Affordable Care Act that required all insurers to cover pre-existing conditions - a term that even Trump promises to preserve and led the U.S. to a long sustained period of growth and job creation.  And Trump has ballooned the federal debt with his tax reductions with the approval of the same "conservative" legislators that threatened to shut down the government over Obama's much smaller deficits.

[John Tonkovich]

The " oak " tree - others say " live oak? - might figure into the irregular wound in JFK's back. Like, say, the first shot was deflected by a limb of said tree, and entered base first into Kennedy's back? a bit below the target, the head, which was hit twice by the next two shots/bullets.
Mr O'meara has no idea what is going on behind the sign, from z207ish to Z223ish.

[Andrew Mason]

I see. It's like they all knew in advance that the first loud noise was a gunshot and so they were mentally prepared to gauge the span of all three shots. But maybe they only registered the span between the second and third shots, but the first shot that they didn't play much attention to was further back in their mind.

Right.  Of course, on hearing that second gunshot they would have completely forgotten about hearing the first "horrible, ear-shattering noise"  (as Mary Woodward described it) 4 seconds earlier and have no sense of the relative spacing on hearing the third 2.3 seconds later.  The 40+ people who recalled that same general shot pattern 1.........2.....3 in many different ways, were either all hallucinating together in the same way or actually heard such a pattern of shots.

The problem folks have with that is that Hickey would have to turn around to face forward (he's looking backward in Altgens, taken Z255) between Z255 and Z273 (about one second), locate Kennedy and observe a minor hair flutter.

So when Hickey said he saw it and remained focused on the President from before the second shot to after the third, he was making it up.

It is odd, then, that we see this after Hickey has turned forward after z255 (he is still looking rearward at z255 in Altgens 6):

Click to see a close up of frames z272-z277:

I guess it is just a coincidence that we see what Hickey described seeing at the time he says he saw it when he could not really see it at all.

[John Tonkovich]

Is Hickey claiming he saw missed shot?

[Charles Collins]

I can see you're a defense attorney.

We don't know for sure if Hickey did turn around right after Z255 but he presumably witnessed the head shot.

    "After a very short distance I heard a loud report which sounded like a firecracker.
     It appeared to come from the right and rear and seemed to me to be at ground level.
     I stood up and looked to my right and rear in an attempt to identify it. Nothing caught
     my attention except people shouting and cheering. A disturbance in 679X caused
     me to look forward toward the President's car. Perhaps 2 or 3 seconds elapsed from
     the time I looked to the rear and then looked at the President. He was slumped
     forward and to his left, and was straightening up to an almost erect sitting position
     as I turned and looked. At the moment he was almost sitting erect I heard two reports
     which I thought were shots and that appeared to me completely different in sound
     than the first report and were in such rapid succession that there seemed to be
     practically no time element between them. It looked to me as if the President was
     struck in the right upper rear of his head. The first shot of the second two seemed as
     if it missed because the hair on the right side of his head flew forward and there didn't
     seem to be any impact against his head. The last shot seemed to hit his head and
     cause a noise at the point of impact which made him fall forward and to his left again.
     -- Possibly four or five seconds elapsed from the time of the first report and the last."

It seems Hickey would have been turned around during the second shot, if he's taking half or the "four or five seconds" he estimates for the shot span to be turned back. About midway through the shooting, he recalls turning back and seeing the President slumped but beginning to straighten up, although the Zapruder film shows the President never straightens up ("almost erect sitting position").

I don't know why Hickey claimed he was facing forward for the last two shots; maybe it wouldn't look so good on paper that he's looking backward as the second shot is heard. But it could be he had yet to look back when he saw a shot strike the President in the Z220s that made the President slump, maybe causing his hair to finch. If that's the case, then putting on paper that he witnessed the President slump (Z220s), then looked back (Altgens) wouldn't look good, either.

The only other thing I can think of is that he heard the fatal gun shot and the impact on the head as separate sounds. Thus he heard the impact on the President's head first and saw "the hair on the right side of his head flew forward". A split-second later, Hickey heard the report from the rifle. He does mention "a noise at the point of impact" but it's out of sequence for my scenario.

There are a few things in Hickey's report the Zapruder film doesn't bear out. Could be he recalled things as best he could, with minor details getting transposed inadvertently. I am fairly certain Hickey couldn't see to the hair flutter in the Z270s.

The only other thing I can think of is that he heard the fatal gun shot and the impact on the head as separate sounds. Thus he heard the impact on the President's head first and saw "the hair on the right side of his head flew forward". A split-second later, Hickey heard the report from the rifle.



George Hickey original report excerpt:

“At the moment he was almost sitting erect I heard two reports which I thought were shots and that appeared to me completely different in sound than the first report and were in such rapid succession that there seemed to be practically no time element between them. It looked to me as if the President was struck in the right upper rear of his head. The first shot of the second two seemed as if it missed because the hair on the right side of his head flew forward and there didn't seem to be any impact against his head. The last shot seemed to hit his head and cause a noise at the point of impact which made him fall forward and to his left again.“

I believe that your description is correct. The sound of that shot is described as sounding different than the others by several witnesses. When one takes into consideration that the impact of the the bullet with the skull, the skull exploding, the impact of the bullet fragment with the windshield, and the sonic boom from the bullet could all be confused with the sound from the muzzle discharge. And that the muzzle discharge sound would have reached the witnesses ears at a slightly later (but discernible) time than the other sounds, the descriptions by these witnesses can be better understood.

[Dan O'meara]

The problem with a first shot at z223, apart from the need for an instantaneous facial and hand reaction, is the relative timing of the shots.  As I have pointed out, the overwhelming timing evidence is that:

1. there were 3 shots.
2. the head shot was the last shot
3. the last two shots were in rapid succession, the second shot being perceptibly closer to the third than the first:  1...........2......3  (A shot, a pause and two shots in rapid succession - see for example SA Lawson, Sheriff Craig, Ladybird Johnson, Luke Mooney, Mary Woodward, Pearl Springer all set out in my tabulation

The FBI determined that 2.3 seconds is about the fastest that two aimed shots could be made with Oswald's MC.

2.3 seconds or 42 frames prior to z313 is z271.

If the first shot was at z223, that would make the first interval 48 frames (271-223). That is a ratio of 48:42 which does not fit with the shot pattern.  But a first shot around z190-200 (81:42 or 71:42) fits the pattern.  That shot pattern fits pretty much the rest of the evidence as well - except Connally being hit in the back by z230.  Perhaps he wasn't.  Perhaps he was just turning around to see the President after realizing, in horror, that he had just heard a rifle shot and was fearing an assassination unfolding.  After all, both he and Nelly said he turned around to see the President before he was hit in the back.  By z271 there was a  clear path from the SN to Connally's back that just passes to the right of JFK's head.  Hickey said that JFK's hair flew up on the right side at the time of the second shot but it did not hit him.  Where should we look for that hair flying up?

Firstly Andrew I'd just like to say you've written a fantastic paper, really well presented and not something to be taken lightly. I'm in total agreement with your analysis of the shot pattern and, I assume, you have the first shot as the one that causes JFK to raise his hands to his throat (that is to say the first audible shot of the three assumed to be fired from the TSBD was a hit)
In this thread I am proposing a first shot at z223 that passes through both JFK and JBC, a second shot that is the headshot and a third missed shot. I would like to take some time to construct a worthy case for my position but I'd like to start off with an assertion you make in your post - that there is overwhelming timing evidence that the head shot was the last shot.
In your paper you seem to just accept Posner's claim for the last shot being at z312/313 but don't present the evidence for it.
I am simply assuming a third shot miss as I can't find any evidence for it from the video/photographic evidence but I need to make it fit the shot pattern. I believe there is plenty of witness evidence for a shot after the fatal headshot or the fatal headshot as the second shot but I would like the time to compile it rather than just insist it exists.
You also make a good point about JFK's reaction time to being shot. In the model I'm presenting the reflex reaction to JFK being hit is extremely rapid.