The First Shot

[Dan O'meara]

I agree with your reasoning and your conclusion that by z223 there has only been one shot.  I know you think that there was a shot at z223 based on the belief that the change in the appearance of JBC's jacket is caused by a bullet.

I have presented a multitude of arguments in this thread demonstrating the first shot occurred at z223. The radical bulging of the right side of JBC's jacket caused by the bullet exiting his chest is just one piece of evidence confirming my "belief".
The latest argument, based on the work of Pat Speer and Mark Tyler, refutes all other theories regarding when the first shot occurred, including your own (unless you've changed it again).

But how do you explain the movement of JFK's left arm from a full wave in z193 to a clenched fist in front of his neck at z224.  The arm movement and fist clench had to have occurred before the shot, if the shot was a z223.  How do you explain that?  Pre-cognition?  And how would the bullet exiting his neck not strike the fist or arm?

This has been explained at length in this thread and has nothing to do with pre-cognition.

The evidence you have provided is equally consistent with a first shot about a second earlier. Also, the Secret Service film shows that Oswald would have had a clear view of JFK without obstruction by the oak tree by the time he was between the lamp post and the Thornton sign, which is before z200.

"The evidence you have provided is equally consistent with a first shot about a second earlier."

So you're now changing your theory to a first shot around z205?

What are you basing that on?

[Walt Cakebread]

No Walt, this is not the perfect opportunity for your incoherent ramblings.
Over 160 witnesses reported THREE CLEARLY AUDIBLE SHOTS (more than 75% of all witnesses who reported on the shots)
I am trying to establish when the first of these THREE CLEARLY AUDIBLE SHOTS occurred.
Obviously, this is not a topic for flakes who have gunmen all over the place firing a range of weaponry, it's for those who accept credible evidence.
It's important to establish when the first of these THREE CLEARLY AUDIBLE SHOTS occurred as there is no consensus on such a fundamental issue.
If you have a comment to make about the evidence I've presented lets hear it.

Obviously, this is not a topic for flakes who have gunmen all over the place firing a range of weaponry, it's for those who accept credible evidence.

I could not be in more agreement...  And the plat of Z223 presents, not merely credible evidence , but  irrefutable evidence that there was a tree between the sixth floor window and President Kennedy at the time he was stuck in THE THROAT....(Z 223)

[Dan O'meara]

Obviously, this is not a topic for flakes who have gunmen all over the place firing a range of weaponry, it's for those who accept credible evidence.

I could not be in more agreement...  And the plat of Z223 presents, not merely credible evidence , but  irrefutable evidence that there was a tree between the sixth floor window and President Kennedy at the time he was stuck in THE THROAT....(Z 223)

Below is the graphic demonstrating JFK was clear of the oak tree by z225 (110 milliseconds after z223)



Provide evidence that a sniper's view from the south-east corner of the 6th floor of the TSBD was blocked by the oak tree @223.
Don't just bluster your way through it, provide actual evidence to support your claim.

[Jerry Organ]

But how do you explain the movement of JFK's left arm from a full wave in z193 to a clenched fist in front of his neck at z224.  The arm movement and fist clench had to have occurred before the shot, if the shot was a z223.  How do you explain that?  Pre-cognition?  And how would the bullet exiting his neck not strike the fist or arm?

Kennedy's right hand is cupped and may be in the process of forming a fist (which it appears to be by Z226). But that would only represent the passage of one frame to get the hand cupped. You're talking about Kennedy needing 30 frames or almost two seconds just to cup his hand if he was shot in the mid-Z190s.

The evidence you have provided is equally consistent with a first shot about a second earlier. Also, the Secret Service film shows that Oswald would have had a clear view of JFK without obstruction by the oak tree by the time he was between the lamp post and the Thornton sign, which is before z200. Karen Westbrook was standing opposite JFK at about z225 according to Roberdeau's map.  She said (22 H 679): "The car he was in was almost directly in front of where I was standing when I heard the first explosion." If the President was directly in front of her at the time of the shot, as you suggest, the car would have been almost past her not almost directly in front of where she was standing as she stated.  Jane Berry, who was about 20 feet farther east according to Roberdeau's map and opposite JFK at z200, said the first shot occurred just as the car was passing her.  That puts the first shot around z200.  TE Moore said that by the time the President had reached the Thornton Freeway sign, a shot was fired.  JFK was opposite the Thornton sign at z200.

I don't think Moore could see to the President slumping Z228ff. His statement says he saw the President "slump" on the first shot. Kennedy leans forward in the Z170s, within a second of the Connally's rightward head-turns, which they said occurred when they heard the first shot. Moore wasn't side-to the limousine (he was almost directly behind) so his impression of Kennedy having "reached the Thornton Freeway sign" seems not based on anything comparative.

[Dan O'meara]

Kennedy's right hand is cupped and may be in the process of forming a fist (which it appears to be by Z226). But that would only represent the passage of one frame to get the hand cupped. You're talking about Kennedy needing 30 frames or almost two seconds just to cup his hand if he was shot in the mid-Z190s.



I don't think Moore could see to the President slumping Z228ff. His statement says he saw the President "slump" on the first shot. Kennedy leans forward in the Z170s, within a second of the Connally's rightward head-turns, which they said occurred when they heard the first shot. Moore wasn't side-to the limousine (he was almost directly behind) so his impression of Kennedy having "reached the Thornton Freeway sign" seems not based on anything comparative.

Surprised you showed up here, Jerry, but not surprised you've completely ignored the latest evidence I've provided to support a first shot at z223.
All 10 occupants of the VP car and VP follow-up car are in agreement on this single point - that both cars have completed the turn off Houston and are travelling on Elm Street.
All 10 statements corroborate each other on this point.
You're theory (which I've catered for) is a first shot around z160. Let's have a look at Mark Tyler's mapping program for around z160:



As we can see, the VP car (#7) has not fully completed it's turn onto Elm St. and the VP follow-up car (#8) is still on Houston St.
This positioning for a first shot is completely refuted by the witness statements of ALL 10 OCCUPANTS of the two vehicles.
A first shot around z160 is completely refuted by this evidence.
If you feel there is a glaring weakness with the evidence I've used or the methodology I've used I would like to discuss it.
If you don't believe there is any weakness, isn't this the kind of solid evidence that should be informing your opinion about when the first shot occurred?
Are you just going to carry on believing the same thing, even when confronted by such evidence?
Surely it's the evidence that should be informing your opinion.
Surely that is the bedrock of wanting to know what really happened that day in Dealey Plaza.

[Jerry Organ]

Surprised you showed up here, Jerry, but not surprised you've completely ignored the latest evidence I've provided to support a first shot at z223.
All 10 occupants of the VP car and VP follow-up car are in agreement on this single point - that both cars have completed the turn off Houston and are travelling on Elm Street.
All 10 statements corroborate each other on this point.
You're theory (which I've catered for) is a first shot around z160. Let's have a look at Mark Tyler's mapping program for around z160:



As we can see, the VP car (#7) has not fully completed it's turn onto Elm St. and the VP follow-up car (#8) is still on Houston St.
This positioning for a first shot is completely refuted by the witness statements of ALL 10 OCCUPANTS of the two vehicles.
A first shot around z160 is completely refuted by this evidence.
If you feel there is a glaring weakness with the evidence I've used or the methodology I've used I would like to discuss it.
If you don't believe there is any weakness, isn't this the kind of solid evidence that should be informing your opinion about when the first shot occurred?
Are you just going to carry on believing the same thing, even when confronted by such evidence?
Surely it's the evidence that should be informing your opinion.
Surely that is the bedrock of wanting to know what really happened that day in Dealey Plaza.

I think you're assuming the car occupants would be staring directly out the vehicle's front window and only be aware of what's in the immediate front of the car. Instead, I believe they were more likely to be anticipating where their car was headed or be looking towards the Presidential limousine and how the crowd was receiving the President.



Lady Bird Johnson says her car was "rounding a curve" at the moment of the first shot. By Z223 the VP car is well pass the curve.

Clifton C. Carter said his car was "right along side of the Texas School Book Depository" when he heard the first shot. Since his statement was made in May 1964, and he morphed events, it may have been the second shot (not the first) that he heard when his car was alongside the Depository.

    "At approximately 12:30 p.m., our car had just made the lefthand turn off
     Houston onto Elm Street and was right along side of the Texas School
     Book Depository Building when I heard a noise which sounded like a
     firecracker. Special Agent Youngblood, who was seated on the righthand
     side of the front seat of Vice President Johnson's car immediately turned
     and pushed Vice President Johnson down and in the same motion vaulted
     over the seat and covered the Vice President with his body. At that instant
     Mrs. Johnson and Senator Yarborough, who were riding in the back seat
     along with the Vice President, bent forward. Special Agent Youngblood's
     action came immediately after the first shot and before the succeeding shots.

         I distinctly remember three shots. There was an interval of approximately
     5 to 6 seconds from the first to the last shot, and the three shots were
     evenly spaced."

I don't think Youngblood got over the front seat between shots 1 and 2. I think Carter filled in some of what he saw with regards to Youngblood from news reports that exaggerated Youngblood's reactions.

Agents Johns heard "two shots" -- so his "first" shot could have been the Z220s SBT shot (the 2nd of most LN scenarios). Agent Jacks' vehicle isn't absolutely "straightened up from making the left turn" at Z160, but he said he was looking "looking directly at the President's car at that time". So his line-of-sight was down Elm; at Z160, the vehicle Jacks was in was perpendicular to Houston and more on Elm than Houston.

While I don't believe T.E. Moore was well-placed to assess how even the President was with the Thornton Frwy sign, he saw enough, in my opinion, to believe the limousine had yet to pass the Thornton Frwy sign when the first shot sounded. At Z223, the limousine's rear bumper is a car length beyond the Thornton Frwy sign. As well, agents John Ready and William McIntyre -- whom were on the Secret Service "Queen Mary" car that was immediately behind the Presidential limousine -- seemed to indicate the limousine had yet to reach the Thornton Frwy sign when they heard the first shot.

    "At about 12:30 p.m. we began the approach to the Thornton Freeway traveling
     about 20-25 MPH in a slight incline. I was about 25-30 feet from President
     Kennedy who was located in the right rear seat. I heard what appeared to be
     fire crackers going off from my position. I immediately turned to my right rear
     trying to locate the source but was not able to determine the exact location."

          — John Ready

    "Directly in front of us was an underpass with a green sign with white
     lettering, stating "Entering Thornton Freeway. The Presidential vehicle was
     approximately 200 feet from the underpass when the first shot was fired,
     followed in quick succession by two more."
     ...
     As we approached the underpass leading to the Thornton Freeway, there was
     little, if any crowd present. I heard three shots fired and observing the President,
     noticed that he had been struck by at least one bullet, I thought in the head."

          — William T. McIntyre

I know they don't specifically describe the Thornton Frwy sign, but what else could it be?

And there's Rosemary Willis, the girl in the red dress, running smartly along the limousine in Z160 who comes to a full stop by about Z189. She said she had been running when she heard the first shot, which caused her to stop. She's stopped almost two seconds before Z223; if we allow most of two seconds for Willis to perceive the sound and bring herself to a stop, then she heard the first shot over three seconds before Z223.

[Dan O'meara]

I think you're assuming the car occupants would be staring directly out the vehicle's front window and only be aware of what's in the immediate front of the car. Instead, I believe they were more likely to be anticipating where their car was headed or be looking towards the Presidential limousine and how the crowd was receiving the President.

The recent evidence I've presented, based on the work of Speer and Tyler, is solid. Rather than allow it to inform your opinion about when the first shot occurred you have chosen, instead, to carry on with your own, utterly refuted theory.

The problem, for you, is that this leads to creating bizarre and disingenuous points that you will then try to argue.
For instance - you have me imagining the occupants are like mannequins, staring directly ahead as they pass through the streets of Dallas, aware of nothing else except "what's in the immediate front of the car."
Are you not embarrassed to invent such a desperate point?

Even though all 10 occupants of both vehicles make it absolutely clear they have turned off Houston St. and are travelling down Elm St, you would have us believe this is because they are "anticipating where their car was headed".
Just think about how ridiculous the point is you're making.
They are still on Houston but they think they're travelling down Elm due to 'anticipation'??

Lady Bird Johnson says her car was "rounding a curve" at the moment of the first shot. By Z223 the VP car is well pass the curve.

So much for making bizarre points.
Now we move on to being disingenuous.
You are indeed correct, the VP car is well past the curve by z223, but what Lady Bird actually says is:

“we were rounding a curve, going down a hill and suddenly there was a sharp loud report..."
"...suddenly in that brilliant sunshine there was a sharp rifle shot. It came, I thought, from over my right shoulder."

She is saying they were on Elm, travelling down the incline on Elm St, when the first shot occurred.
Conversely, around z160, the VP car is about halfway round the curve and nowhere near the incline going down Elm.

Clifton C. Carter said his car was "right along side of the Texas School Book Depository" when he heard the first shot. Since his statement was made in May 1964, and he morphed events, it may have been the second shot (not the first) that he heard when his car was alongside the Depository.

    "At approximately 12:30 p.m., our car had just made the lefthand turn off
     Houston onto Elm Street and was right along side of the Texas School
     Book Depository Building when I heard a noise which sounded like a
     firecracker. Special Agent Youngblood, who was seated on the righthand
     side of the front seat of Vice President Johnson's car immediately turned
     and pushed Vice President Johnson down and in the same motion vaulted
     over the seat and covered the Vice President with his body. At that instant
     Mrs. Johnson and Senator Yarborough, who were riding in the back seat
     along with the Vice President, bent forward. Special Agent Youngblood's
     action came immediately after the first shot and before the succeeding shots.

         I distinctly remember three shots. There was an interval of approximately
     5 to 6 seconds from the first to the last shot, and the three shots were
     evenly spaced."

I don't think Youngblood got over the front seat between shots 1 and 2. I think Carter filled in some of what he saw with regards to Youngblood from news reports that exaggerated Youngblood's reactions.

Why you think Carter is lying about when Youngblood got over the front seat (even though LBJ confirmed this) is bizarre and irrelevant. Instead you provide a quote stating the VP follow-up car "had just made the lefthand turn off
Houston onto Elm Street", clearly not the case at z160.

Agents Johns heard "two shots" -- so his "first" shot could have been the Z220s SBT shot (the 2nd of most LN scenarios). Agent Jacks' vehicle isn't absolutely "straightened up from making the left turn" at Z160, but he said he was looking "looking directly at the President's car at that time". So his line-of-sight was down Elm; at Z160, the vehicle Jacks was in was perpendicular to Houston and more on Elm than Houston.

The VP car is nowhere near being "straightened up from making the left turn" at z160.



Note, Jacks stated they had already made the turn, then straightened out.
This is clearly not the case at z160.
The rest of your post has no bearing on the Speer/Tyler evidence.

[Andrew Mason]

I have presented a multitude of arguments in this thread demonstrating the first shot occurred at z223. The radical bulging of the right side of JBC's jacket caused by the bullet exiting his chest is just one piece of evidence confirming my "belief".
The latest argument, based on the work of Pat Speer and Mark Tyler, refutes all other theories regarding when the first shot occurred, including your own (unless you've changed it again).

I prefer basing conclusions on the evidence.

This has been explained at length in this thread and has nothing to do with pre-cognition.

Yes.  The assumption is that he just happened to move his hands into that position immediately before being shot.  Big assumption.

"The evidence you have provided is equally consistent with a first shot about a second earlier."

So you're now changing your theory to a first shot around z205?

What are you basing that on?

I said that the evidence you provided (the motorcade witnesses) is consistent with a shot about a second earlier.  Other witnesses such as Phil Willis (just before z202), Mary Woodward (just after z192), Linda Willis (z195-z205), Rosemary Willis (the head turn to the TSBD at z204), Jack Ready (rearward turn begins z200), together with the fact that JFK was never completely obscured by the tree and was completely clear of the tree well before z200 indicate that that the shot occurred around z195 give or take a few frames.

I note that in your post #152 on this thread, you quoted from Pat Speer's analysis:
"...we’ve looked at the words of 293 witnesses to see if they add up to something. Of this 293, 88 failed to tell us much that would indicate when and how the shots were fired. Of the remaining 205, 102 made statements suggesting there were three shots fired, with the first shot being heard between Z-190 and Z-224 and the last 2 shots being heard in rapid succession after a short pause. Another 57 made statements suggesting that the first shot was heard between Z-190 and Z-224, but made no statements indicating the last two shots were bunched together. Another 13 heard the last two shots fired closely together, and yet another could only swear to hearing two shots, but thought there may have been a third, which was wholly consistent with the last two being fired closely together. This means that 173 of the 205 witnesses described the shots in a relatively consistent manner. Of the remaining 32, 18 heard four or more shots, and another 3 made statements indicating there was a shot after the head shot."

At that point, based on Pat Speer's analysis, you had considered that the evidence was consistent with a first shot as early as z195.  What has changed?