The First Shot

[John Tonkovich]

This is the situation, as I understand it. Please correct me on any detail I get wrong as a lot of this is guesswork and assumption.
At the behest of the SS/FBI Robert West surveyed part of Dealey Plaza from which he created a Plat Map (a representation of the information gained from the survey, very often a drawing or series of drawings).  West was then asked to project the impact points of three shots fired during the assassination.
In order to determine the impact points West had to be given at least three pieces of information concerning the shots:
The location from which the shots originated
The direction of each shot
Most importantly, as far as this thread is concerned, the timing of each shot.
None of this information could be magically deduced from a drawing of Dealey Plaza. West was given the information by the SS/FBI.
The only question of any relevance for this thread is - How did the SS/FBI determine the timings of the three shots at z207, z312 and z350?
I have asked you this question a number of times and you clearly don't know, but we can assume, as they were using z-frames, that the Zapruder film played a large part in their deductions.
Without knowing how the SS/FBI came to their conclusions about the timing of the shots you fully accept they are correct.
In this thread I have presented argument after argument leading to the conclusion that the first audible shot of three shots assumed to come from the TSBD occurred at z223.
You have not challenged any argument I've made, you've simply said West Survey, West Survey, West Survey.
You have fully accepted that the SS/FBI are correct and have refused to enter any kind of meaningful dialogue regarding the arguments I've presented.

Very early in this thread Joffrey made the point that z207 was a shot through the oak tree. Why do you accept this as being correct?

The oak tree.
You are getting warm. Not quite hot, but there is hope.
Might want to examine the autopsy report, and note the " irregular " wound to JFK's back.

[John Iacoletti]

Read through the thread John. I present testable arguments concerning my opinions (try it some time)
If you've got a critique of what I'm presenting let me have it.
Don't just snipe from the side-lines.
Get involved.
Let's hear what you have to think about things.
Let's test your arguments.

What's "testable" about "both Connally and JFK were shot through at z223" made as an absolute statement of fact based upon nothing other than "looks that way to me".

This is like you insisting that an ink-blot is an image of two dogs fighting and in order to "contribute", I have to make up a story about it being a squirrel on a fencepost instead of just pointing out that it's an inkblot.

[John Tonkovich]

What's "testable" about "both Connally and JFK were shot through at z223" made as an absolute statement of fact based upon nothing other than "looks that way to me".

This is like you insisting that an ink-blot is an image of two dogs fighting and in order to "contribute", I have to make up a story about it being a squirrel on a fencepost instead of just pointing out that it's an inkblot.

Ha! This reminds of the time, years ago, when one of the folks on a different "channel" opted to bring in a blood spatter expert (sic) who could "prove" there was a shot from the front, merely by examining....the Zfilm. That did not end well.

[Andrew Mason]

In Altgens 6 we see Agents Landis, Ready and Hickey looking over their right shoulders towards the TSBD, presumably in response to the sound of gunfire:


Landis - "I heard what sounded like the report of a high-powered rifle from behind me, over my right shoulder...", "My first glance was at the President, as I was practically looking in his direction anyway...", "I immediately returned my gaze, over my right shoulder."

Ready - "I heard what appeared to be fire crackers going off from my position. I immediately turned to my right rear trying to locate the source but was not able to determine the exact location."

Hickey - "I heard what seemed to me that a firecracker exploded to the right and rear. I stood partially up and turned to the rear to see if I could observe anything. "

Each agent describes their immediate reactions to hearing the first shot, turning to look over their right shoulders looking towards where they felt the sound came from. This is exactly what we see in Altgens 6. However, when we take a closer look at Zapruder we see
no meaningful reaction from them (Hickey looks briefly over the side of the car but then returns to his original position). The partial footage of the Z-film below focuses on the follow-up car. It runs from z133 to z207. At no point do we see any meaningful reaction from the agents mentioned above:



This is clear evidence the first shot did not take place before z207.

What do you make of the evidence of Phillip Willis who said that his z204 photo was taken a fraction of a second after the sound of the first shot?
What do you make of the turning of Rosemary Willis' head from z200-207:


What do you make of Jack Ready removing his right hand from the front hand-hold at z199 and beginning to turn his head to the right?  He said he turned around in response to the first shot: 18 H 749:
"I heard what appeared to be fire-crackers going off from my position. I immediately turned to my right rear trying to locate the source but was not able to determine the exact location."

What do you make of the statement and photograph of Hugh Betzner who said that his z186 photo was taken just before the first shot?

What do you make of the statement of Hughes that he stopped filming before the first shot? (that section of the film ends at about z180 at the latest)

[John Tonkovich]

Phil Willis was a car salesman who was promoting the commercial set of slides he took in Dealey Plaza that day, so he could have said the sound of the shot made him click the shutter, when there was truthfully some time between hearing the shot and snapping the shutter. Thus he could claim he had a slide at the moment Kennedy was shot. Willis said the shot caused Mrs. Kennedy to turn from her left to her right:

    "Then when the first shot was fired, she turned to the right
      toward him and he more or less slumped forward."

In Willis' Z202 slide, Mrs. Kennedy has already performed the reaction to the first shot (she appears in the slide turned towards the President). Willis himself seemed to think the President had grab his throat in his slide (though hidden from his vantage point):

     Mr. LIEBELER. Can you tell us when that picture was made?

     Mr. WILLIS. That picture was made at the very instant that the
          first shot was fired. As a matter of fact, the fellow standing
          on the ledge under the right-hand corner of the Stemmons
          Highway sign is a gentleman who took the last pictures that
          appeared in Life, and his pictures showed that this instant
          with this sign in between the photographer and the President,
          shows that at this instant he had already grabbed his throat.

Rosemary said she stopped after hearing the first shot. She does that before Z200.

Nothing burger. His head first turns to his right earlier. He's balanced on the running board and couldn't instantaneously turn to his rear.

Betzner recalls only two shots, one after he took his photo on Elm and the head shot:

    "I started to wind my film again and I heard a loud noise."

As Betzner goes out of the Zapruder film in frame 207, he continues to lower his camera and is not looking down. So Betzner winding his camera as he hears a shot isn't proof of your first shot at ca.Z200.

Assuming he winds his camera shortly thereafter (post-Z207), it might be that the shot he heard while winding the camera was the proposed shot in the early-Z220s.

That doesn't work well with your first shot occurring about one-second later because Hughes says he stopped filming about five seconds before the shots were heard. Now in my scenario, he might not have been alarmed at a first shot in the Z150s, and instead took the hypothetical Z220s second shot for the first shot. That's about 2.25 seconds after Z180.

Odd then, that the first two West surveys pinpoint a first hit at Z207, a second hit  at z312, and the third hit at "stationing point 4+95". Care to explain exhibit WC exhibit ce 875?
Arlen and friends let the cat out of the bag.

[Dan O'meara]

What's "testable" about "both Connally and JFK were shot through at z223" made as an absolute statement of fact based upon nothing other than "looks that way to me".

This is like you insisting that an ink-blot is an image of two dogs fighting and in order to "contribute", I have to make up a story about it being a squirrel on a fencepost instead of just pointing out that it's an inkblot.

More misrepresentation from the man who never misrepresents my work.
You lack the courage to take on the work and all the arguments I present on this thread.
Instead you misrepresent the whole thread with some asinine, meaningless lie.
Then complain about how you can't contribute.
You seem to forget that the forum is a record of the ideas presented here. Anyone can go to the beginning of this thread and read through it. Whether they agree or not they will see the work I've put in and the spineless, childish little 'contributions' by yourself.

[Andrew Mason]

Phil Willis was a car salesman who was promoting the commercial set of slides he took in Dealey Plaza that day,...


.....Rosemary said she stopped after hearing the first shot. She does that before Z200.

....Betzner recalls only two shots, one after he took his photo on Elm and the head shot:

    "I started to wind my film again and I heard a loud noise."

As Betzner goes out of the Zapruder film in frame 207, he continues to lower his camera and is not looking down. So Betzner winding his camera as he hears a shot isn't proof of your first shot at ca.Z200.

...[Hughes]..
That doesn't work well with your first shot occurring about one-second later because Hughes says he stopped filming about five seconds before the shots were heard. Now in my scenario, he might not have been alarmed at a first shot in the Z150s, and instead took the hypothetical Z220s second shot for the first shot. That's about 2.25 seconds after Z180.

I see.  So these witnesses:

• Betzner taking his photo at z186 and recalling that it was before the first shot;
• Rosemary Willis suddenly turning her head from z200-207 toward the TSBD, which she said she did on hearing the first shot (her feet stop at z198, by the way).
  
• Phil Willis recalling that his photo was taken an instant after the first shot
• Hughes recalling a pause after stopping filming and the sound of the first shot (this sequence ends with the rear wheel of the president's limo passing where JFK passed at z160 so that looks like about z168 to me).
• And Jack Ready removing his right hand from the front hand-hold as he begins to turn and as he said he did in response to the first shot

were all wrong because their recollections do not fit with the early first shot miss at z150-160 that you hypothesize.

What about all the witnesses who said that JFK reacted to the first shot (20+) by moving left, changing expression, clutching his chest/neck?  Where are the witnesses who recalled JFK smiling and waving for 2-3 seconds after the first shot? (z150-z207)  Where are they Jerry?[/list]

[Dan O'meara]

I see.  So these witnesses:


• Betzner taking his photo at z186 and recalling that it was before the first shot;
• Rosemary Willis suddenly turning her head from z200-207 toward the TSBD, which she said she did on hearing the first shot (her feet stop at z198, by the way).
  
• Phil Willis recalling that his photo was taken an instant after the first shot
• Hughes recalling a pause after stopping filming and the sound of the first shot (this sequence ends with the rear wheel of the president's limo passing where JFK passed at z160 so that looks like about z168 to me).
• And Jack Ready removing his right hand from the front hand-hold as he begins to turn and as he said he did in response to the first shot
were all wrong because their recollections do not fit with the early first shot miss at z150-160 that you hypothesize.

What about all the witnesses who said that JFK reacted to the first shot (20+) by moving left, changing expression, clutching his chest/neck?  Where are the witnesses who recalled JFK smiling and waving for 2-3 seconds after the first shot? (z150-z207)  Where are they Jerry?

Hi Andrew, I certainly have to agree that the available evidence rules out a shot as early as z150-160.
The opening post of this thread focusses on the SS follow-up car behind the Presidential limo and compares it to the clear reactions of the SS agents in Altgens 6. Rufus Youngblood describes the first shot as an 'explosive noise', agents Ready and  Landis describe reacting 'immediately' but in the Z-film, which shows these agents up to z207 no such reaction can be seen. For me this certainly rules out a shot as early as z150-160.
The same clip also shows Rosemary Willis 'reacting' to the sound of a shot while a carload of SS agents show no reaction. I find this highly unlikely.
You make a point about Jack Ready but the Z-film, as I see it, doesn't show Ready distinctly turning to his right. He looks to his left then slowly moves his head right but we certainly don't see him turning to his "right rear". To me it looks like a perfectly normal head turn as he scans the crowd.
I'm not 100% sure about the points you're making about Betzner and Hughes (I'm possibly being a bit slow here)
Phil Willis comes across as a credible witness who seems to 'timestamp' the moment of the first shot but I personally would like more evidence that backs up his statement as it's not enough to rely on a single witness.
The problem with this issue is that there are so many contradictory 'ear-witness' statements. On his website, Pat Speers analyses a comprehensive list of witnesses relating to the assassination:

"...we’ve looked at the words of 293 witnesses to see if they add up to something. Of this 293, 88 failed to tell us much that would indicate when and how the shots were fired. Of the remaining 205, 102 made statements suggesting there were three shots fired, with the first shot being heard between Z-190 and Z-224 and the last 2 shots being heard in rapid succession after a short pause. Another 57 made statements suggesting that the first shot was heard between Z-190 and Z-224, but made no statements indicating the last two shots were bunched together. Another 13 heard the last two shots fired closely together, and yet another could only swear to hearing two shots, but thought there may have been a third, which was wholly consistent with the last two being fired closely together. This means that 173 of the 205 witnesses described the shots in a relatively consistent manner. Of the remaining 32, 18 heard four or more shots, and another 3 made statements indicating there was a shot after the head shot."


My challenge is to get, what I believe to be, the best fit between the ear-witness statements and any evidence that can be gleaned from photographic/video evidence.