Firstly Andrew I'd just like to say you've written a fantastic paper, really well presented and not something to be taken lightly.
I appreciate that. But we hold a small minority view on this board as both CTers and LNers don't like this evidence.
The problem for most LNers is that the evidence does not fit with the first shot miss and second shot SBT which seems to be the current SBT scenario preference (it has changed over the years from a first shot SBT at around z207 preferred by the WC to a second shot SBT al la Dr. Lattimer/Gerald Posner at z223 or so). The 3 shot, 3 hit scenario (which was the original assumption by the FBI) is the only scenario that fits all of the evidence. But the evidence is being discarded because it does not fit with what both LNers and CTers imagine that they can see happening to JBC by z230. Both camps believe they can tell he is hit in the torso by z230. CTers say he was hit around z230 on the second shot, the first being around z207 so there must have been 2 shooters. The LNers say that JFK and JBC are both hit by the SBT second shot at z223 with the first phantom shot missing the entire limo and disappearing without a trace at about z150-160.
I'm in total agreement with your analysis of the shot pattern and, I assume, you have the first shot as the one that causes JFK to raise his hands to his throat (that is to say the first audible shot of the three assumed to be fired from the TSBD was a hit)
All the witnesses who recalled what JFK did immediately after the first shot, with the possible exception of SA Bennett, said that he reacted in a way consistent only with the way JFK is reacting when he emerges from behind the Stemmons sign in the zfilm. No one said he continued to smile and wave, let alone for 2-3 seconds afterward. Not even Bennett.
SA Glen Bennett said in his initial notes written shortly after the events (CE 2112, 24 H 542):
"At this point I heard a noise that immediately reminded me of a firecracker. I immediately, upon hearing the supposed fire cracker, looked at the Boss's car. At this exact time I saw a shot that hit the Boss about 4 inches down from the right shoulder; a second shot followed immediately and hit the right rear high of the Boss's head."
That very much looks to me like two shots. It could be that he was saying he heard the "supposed fire cracker" noise and immediately looked at the President and saw where a shot had hit - about 4 inches down from the right shoulder. Or, as most LNers interpret it, he heard the loud fire cracker noise and then immediately saw the second shot hit Gov. Connally (without mentioning a second shot sound). That is is an odd way to say it.. It is further complicated by the fact that the day after the events he gave a statement saying that there were three shots:
""At this point I heard what sounded like a fire-cracker. I immediately looked from the right/crowd/physical area/ and looked towards the President who was seated in the right rear seat of his limosine open convertible. At the moment I looked at the back of the President I heard another fire-cracker noise and saw the shot hit the President about four inches down from the right shoulder. A second shot followed immediately and hit the right rear high of the President's head."
Bennett does say that the third shot followed immediately after the shot that hit the president four inches down from the right shoulder. So unless he thinks that 5 seconds (the time from z223 to z313) is "immediately" the second shot hitting JFK does not fit what is apparent in the zfilm.
In this thread I am proposing a first shot at z223 that passes through both JFK and JBC, a second shot that is the headshot and a third missed shot. I would like to take some time to construct a worthy case for my position but I'd like to start off with an assertion you make in your post - that there is overwhelming timing evidence that the head shot was the last shot.
In your paper you seem to just accept Posner's claim for the last shot being at z312/313 but don't present the evidence for it.
I am simply assuming a third shot miss as I can't find any evidence for it from the video/photographic evidence but I need to make it fit the shot pattern. I believe there is plenty of witness evidence for a shot after the fatal headshot or the fatal headshot as the second shot but I would like the time to compile it rather than just insist it exists.
You also make a good point about JFK's reaction time to being shot. In the model I'm presenting the reflex reaction to JFK being hit is extremely rapid.
Here are just some of the witnesses who said the last shot hit JFK in the head:
[SA Glen Bennett (quoted above)Photographer Ike Altgens (7 H 517): "There was not another shot fired after the President was struck in the head. That was the last shot-that much I will say with a great degree of certainty."
SA George Hickey (CE 1024 18 H 762): "The last shot seemed to hit his head and cause a noise at the point of impact which made him fall forward and to his left again."
Governor Connally: (3 H 133): the third shot sounded, and I heard the shot very clearly. I heard it hit him. I heard the shot hit something, and I assumed again-it never entered my mind that it ever hit anybody but the President. I heard it hit. It was a very loud noise, just that audible, very clear.
Immediately I could see on my clothes, my clothing, I could see on the interior of the car which, as I recall, was a pale blue, brain tissue,
Nelly Connally (3 H 147): The third shot that I heard I felt, it felt like spent buckshot falling all over us, and then, of course, I too could see that it was the matter, brain tissue, or whatever, just human matter, all over the car and both of us.
David Powers (7 H 473: "I noticed then that the President moved quite far to his left after the shot from the extreme right hand side where he had been sitting. There was a second shot and Governor Connally disappeared from sight and then there was a third shot which took off the top of the President’s head")
SA Wm. Greer (2 H 119): Mr. SPECTER. Was it at about that time that you heard the third shot?
Mr. GREER. Yes, sir; just as soon as I turned my head. [he is seen turning his head for the last time at about z305 just before the head shot]
While one can theorize that these witnesses are wrong and that there was a shot after the head shot, I prefer to stick with evidence. Why the shooter would fire again after such an obvious hit also does not make much sense either.