The First Shot

[Pat Speer]

You should consider Gov. Connally's other statements.  He made a statement to Life Magazine in 1966 that he said 'Oh no, no, no' before he was hit in the back by the second shot.  He told the HSCA that he said it just before but then changed his mind and said it was after he was hit:
"When I was hit, or shortly before I was hit-no, I guess it was
after I was hit-I said first, just almost in despair, I said, "no, no,
no," just thinking how tragic it was that we had gone through this
24 hours, it had all been so wonderful and so beautifully executed."

This latter statement is interesting because the governor did not say "no, no, no" because he was hit.  He said it because he feared that a beautiful reception for the President in his state was turning into a tragedy.
In the quote you have provide from his WC testimony Gov. Connally said he said it "as I was hit", not after.  The big problem with this is the significant preponderance of evidence that the last two shots were close together.  Listen to Sam Kinney, for example:

Why would so many witnesses - 47 by my count - think that?  5 seconds seemed like 2 seconds?

FWIW, Andrew, I did quite a bit of reading on this very issue, and the fact is that a witness' sense of time almost always slows down considerably during a traumatic event.The expectation would be, then, that if the last two shots were in fact 5 seconds apart, that many of the witnesses would say they were 10 seconds apart, not one or two seconds apart.

That so many witnesses heard the last two shots bang-bang, then, strongly suggests that there was but one shot at this time, and that they heard echoes, or, much more disturbingly, that there were indeed two shots at this time, fired too closely together to have been fired by a bolt-action rifle.

One should note, moreover, that the first police report on the suspected sniper said he may be carrying a Winchester rifle. This was undoubtedly a reference to a popular TV show at the time, The Rifleman, in which the main character famously fired a Winchester lever-action rifle, which fired roughly twice a second, around 5 times as fast as the rifle found in the building.

[Charles Collins]

You should consider Gov. Connally's other statements.  He made a statement to Life Magazine in 1966 that he said 'Oh no, no, no' before he was hit in the back by the second shot.  He told the HSCA that he said it just before but then changed his mind and said it was after he was hit:
"When I was hit, or shortly before I was hit-no, I guess it was
after I was hit-I said first, just almost in despair, I said, "no, no,
no," just thinking how tragic it was that we had gone through this
24 hours, it had all been so wonderful and so beautifully executed."

This latter statement is interesting because the governor did not say "no, no, no" because he was hit.  He said it because he feared that a beautiful reception for the President in his state was turning into a tragedy.
In the quote you have provide from his WC testimony Gov. Connally said he said it "as I was hit", not after.  The big problem with this is the significant preponderance of evidence that the last two shots were close together.  Listen to Sam Kinney, for example:

Why would so many witnesses - 47 by my count - think that?  5 seconds seemed like 2 seconds?

The official wording is "immediately, when I was hit" (not "as I was hit)." I did inadvertently say "after" and will edit the post. Thanks.

However, the wording "immediately, when I was hit..." implies to me that he knew he had been hit when he started yelling. His description of what he did after he was hit fits well with what can be seen in the Zapruder film. I place far more weight on what can be seen in the photographic record than the often ambiguous and conflicting witness accounts.

However here is another part of JBC's testimony that agrees with what appears to me to have happened:

Mr. Specter.  What is your best estimate as to the time span between the first shot which you heard and the shot which you heretofore characterized as the third shot?

Governor Connally. It was a very brief span of time; oh I would have to say a matter of seconds. I don't know, 10, 12 seconds? It was extremely rapid.



So here you have JBC specifying what a very "brief span of time" and "extremely rapid" means to him in this situation (10 to 12 seconds). (Put that amount of time in place of the same or similar words in some of the witness accounts which you hang your hat on). Ten to twelve seconds before Z313 would be in the neighborhood of 1-second before, to about the same time that Zapruder began filming that sequence. It also agrees with Tina Towner's account that the first shot sounded just after she stopped filming. It also agrees with the rapid head turns of the limo passengers which I have previously mentioned and Don Roberdeau has charted on his map.

[Andrew Mason]

You make it sound like their brains were digital recorders. Ever hear tell of estimator variables, memory conformity and perceptual set? You probably used it in court. And I bet you heard of the day-care sex-abuse hysteria ( Link ).

No. I have never heard of a simple fact that is4 easy to observe where the vast majority of a group of 60+ witnesses got it completely backward.  If the shot pattern was 1......2........3 and there was only a 10% chance of recalling it correctly, of those who recalled it incorrectly one would expect most to have recalled the shots as being about equally spaced. Why would the vast majority recall the opposite pattern  1.......2...3?

Hallucinating? How florid, Mr. Lane. So the witnesses who said the shots were evenly-spaced or the first two were closer together were instead hallucinating.

It is not just that we have 47+ witnesses, many with specific recollections of the shot pattern, that you think got it wrong. You also think that large groups of witnesses who placed the time of the first shot after z186 or the second after z255 such as Betzner, Willis (Linda and Phil), Altgens, Hickey, Kinney, Hughes, motorcade witnesses, etc got their recollections which fit with the 1........2...3 pattern - indeed require it - wrong.  The 10 or so witnesses who thought the shots were evenly spaced and even fewer who gave statements that the pattern was the reverse are likely due to statistically expected error. Not every witness is accurate. Some get it wrong.  But when they get it wrong their recollections are distributed over the range of possible wrong answers.

Just a little bit of Connally's right shoulder, the part that's above the top of jump-seat, is claimed to reach back behind the front surface of the seat-back. The location of the jump-seat doesn't alone determine where the models are positioned for a photo-match, though you seem to think it's the most important thing. Grasping at straws.



If I leave Connally's head where it is in the Croft photo and turn his shoulders, some of the right shoulder has to go towards Kennedy, as the photo shows it doing so.

You have him turned 70 degrees. Myers goes with 50 degrees. I suspect the latter may be too much, but Myers does have the right shoulder tip over the top of the back of the jump-seat.

Right. His right shoulder is above the seat-back.

And the band played on.

You have to have JBC turned as shown in z193.  There is no way that JBC's right shoulder is over the top of the jump seat back.  How far forward of the jump seat back surface is his spine when he is turned 60 degrees like that?  That's the issue.

[Andrew Mason]

FWIW, Andrew, I did quite a bit of reading on this very issue, and the fact is that a witness' sense of time almost always slows down considerably during a traumatic event.The expectation would be, then, that if the last two shots were in fact 5 seconds apart, that many of the witnesses would say they were 10 seconds apart, not one or two seconds apart.

I don't think it applies to everyone the same way. Witnesses who were farther away and did not realize a traumatic event was occurring would not necessarily overestimate the time between the last two shots because of trauma.  Generally, humans are not good at estimating absolute times. They are much better at identifying relative times and patterns: rhythm. 

That so many witnesses heard the last two shots bang-bang, then, strongly suggests that there was but one shot at this time, and that they heard echoes, or, much more disturbingly, that there were indeed two shots at this time, fired too closely together to have been fired by a bolt-action rifle.

Many said that the last two shots were distinct but noticeably close together without estimating the time between shots. That 1........2....3 pattern was common to the vast majority of witnesses who recalled the relative spacing of the shots. Many more simply recalled a shot and then two more shots without commenting on the spacing. While some, like Kellerman, thought that they were almost simultaneous, others did not. Greer, right beside him, said that the second came just before he turned around the first time and the third shot came after he turned a second time to look back.  We can time this in the zfilm and it is at least 2 seconds. Emmett Hudson said they were about as fast as one could fire a bolt action rifle. Bob Jackson who was on Houston St. some distance from the president said they were about 2 seconds apart.

One should note, moreover, that the first police report on the suspected sniper said he may be carrying a Winchester rifle. This was undoubtedly a reference to a popular TV show at the time, The Rifleman, in which the main character famously fired a Winchester lever-action rifle, which fired roughly twice a second, around 5 times as fast as the rifle found in the building.

If the person who wrote that report knew a lot about different rifles and said that "Winchester" comment was based on shot spacing that they heard, it might be probative of the relative spacing of the shots. Do we have any idea what that comment was based on? In the grand scheme of things, that kind of evidence is not as useful as actual witness reports about the relative shot spacing.

[Andrew Mason]

Since Greer first turns his head to look backward about Z250, it's more like 3.4 sec.



Greer's shirt front widens about the late Z-240s as he turns towards the middle of the car.

Tell me, Jerry, can you also see badge man in the shadows of the grassy knoll fence?

We cannot see Greer turned until about z280 and he is in the process of turning his head further right until about z285. He then holds that until he starts turning to the front at z292.  Greer said that when he turned he saw JBC falling back onto his wife. JBC does not begin to do that until z278.

But say your 47 witnesses held up to scrutiny, and furthermore that they really did reflect the actual occurrence of what happened. Any scenario conclusion drawn from that just wouldn't include your first two shots, which are impossible with regard to trajectory and wound strikes.

If you wanted to show they are impossible you could show the range of positions for JFK and JBC that would allow the shot through JFK's neck to strike the left thigh of JBC and then show that these do not begin to fit anything seen in the photographs or zfilm. 

I say that the most conservative estimate for frame z195 allows for the reasonable possibility that JFK's midline is 8-10 inches inside the car and JBC's is 15-18 inches inside the car; that the distance between JFK's neck exit wound and JBC's spine in z195 is 28-32 inches; that the angle to the car from the SN at z195 was 12-14 degrees; that JBC was turned 50-70 degrees right at z195.  So you would have to show that using those ranges of positions, a shot through JFK to JBC's left thigh was impossible. It isn't.  To determine the positions at z195 you can use z193 which is clearer - (unless you see significant movement between z193 and z195).

If you still insist on a wounding shot in the Z190s and another at Z271, then you will have to shift the firing points away from the SN. If you hold on to the first shot being fired from the SN, then your Theory needs to consider:

• Bullet didn't transit Kennedy's neck
• Bullet transited Kennedy's neck, but deflected to strike Connally in the back
• Bullet missed Kennedy and struck Connally directly in the back

The first transited JFK's neck.  There are at least 20 witnesses who saw JFK react to it. There is no evidence that JBC was hit on the left side of his back.  The second shot just missed JFK (Hickey saw his hair fly up on the second shot which, he said appeared to miss him) and struck JBC in the right armpit as he was turned right. Nellie said he was turned right when hit.  The exit wound in the chest below and medial to the right nipple coincides with the end of his right jacket sleeve as seen in z268-271 and it also explains the slight but sudden change in appearance of the shirt sleeve and hat brim that happens between z271 and z272:


The bullet fragmented on hitting the radius and fragments deflect up and forward striking the windshield and Tague.  A fragment or bone shard penetrated the palm side of the wrist.  It all fits the trajectory and wound evidence quite well.   And it fits the first shot hit and first shot location evidence. And it fits the shot pattern, which also fits the times required to aim those shots. And it fits Oswald firing all three shots.  What more do you need?

[Dan O'meara]

We cannot see Greer turned until about z280 and he is in the process of turning his head further right until about z285. He then holds that until he starts turning to the front at z292.  Greer said that when he turned he saw JBC falling back onto his wife. JBC does not begin to do that until z278. If you wanted to show they are impossible you could show the range of positions for JFK and JBC that would allow the shot through JFK's neck to strike the left thigh of JBC and then show that these do not begin to fit anything seen in the photographs or zfilm. 

Can't believe you're still using Greer.
Totally discredited as a witness earlier in this thread.
It seems you are impervious to reasoned argument.
Ride it out and press on.

I say that the most conservative estimate for frame z195 allows for the reasonable possibility that JFK's midline is 8-10 inches inside the car and JBC's is 15-18 inches inside the car; that the distance between JFK's neck exit wound and JBC's spine in z195 is 28-32 inches; that the angle to the car from the SN at z195 was 12-14 degrees; that JBC was turned 50-70 degrees right at z195.  So you would have to show that using those ranges of positions, a shot through JFK to JBC's left thigh was impossible. It isn't.  To determine the positions at z195 you can use z193 which is clearer - (unless you see significant movement between z193 and z195).
The first transited JFK's neck.  There are at least 20 witnesses who saw JFK react to it. There is no evidence that JBC was hit on the left side of his back.  The second shot just missed JFK (Hickey saw his hair fly up on the second shot which, he said appeared to miss him) and struck JBC in the right armpit as he was turned right. Nellie said he was turned right when hit.  The exit wound in the chest below and medial to the right nipple coincides with the end of his right jacket sleeve as seen in z268-271 and it also explains the sudden increase in sleeve that happens between z271 and z272:

Can't believe you're proposing z195
It's been demonstrated JFK is passing behind dense foliage at this time earlier in this thread.
Ride it out and press on

The bullet fragmented on hitting the radius and fragments deflect up and forward striking the windshield and Tague.  A fragment or bone shard penetrated the palm side of the wrist.  It all fits the trajectory and wound evidence quite well.   And it fits the first shot hit and first shot location evidence. And it fits the shot pattern, which also fits the times required to aim those shots. And it fits Oswald firing all three shots.  What more do you need?

At z271 JBC is more or "less shoulder on" to a shot from the TSBD.
The shot you propose somehow hits him around the back right armpit area
Even though the bullet is travelling away from JBC at the time of impact it suddenly makes a 50-60 degree right turn, passes through his abdomen, exits the front of his chest, which is facing towards Zapruder, smashes through his wrist bone, then goes on to hit Tague!!
Bring back the Magic Bullet, it all seems so reasonable now 

[Andrew Mason]

Can't believe you're still using Greer.
Totally discredited as a witness earlier in this thread.
It seems you are impervious to reasoned argument.
Ride it out and press on.

He was not accurate on when he accelerated.  That is the only thing you have shown him to be inaccurate on.  Why does that discredit the rest of his evidence, particularly evidence that is corroborated by the zfilm? That makes no sense.  What has been not been discredited is the evidence that the last shot was at z313. Perhaps you should take your advice, accept it and move on.....

Can't believe you're proposing z195
It's been demonstrated JFK is passing behind dense foliage at this time earlier in this thread.
Ride it out and press on

You seem to not understand what you can see in the Secret Service film taken in December 1963 which shows that JFK was visible when he was opposite the lamp post just to the east of where Mary Woodward stood. Mary Woodward was opposite JFK at z195.

At z271 JBC is more or "less shoulder on" to a shot from the TSBD.
The shot you propose somehow hits him around the back right armpit area
Even though the bullet is travelling away from JBC at the time of impact it suddenly makes a 50-60 degree right turn, passes through his abdomen, exits the front of his chest, which is facing towards Zapruder, smashes through his wrist bone, then goes on to hit Tague!!
Bring back the Magic Bullet, it all seems so reasonable now 

You should actually read my posts. How does the bullet pass through JBC's abdomen?  The baby picture shows that when the torso is turned sharply as we see in z271, a shot from the rear to the armpit exiting below the right nipple does not pass through the lung.  Besides, there is evidence that corroborates the evidence of a shot at around that time. 

[Zeon Mason]

I think I agree somewhat with points made by everyone:)

I agree with Jerry that there is a quick turn of Jackie’s head in approx 1/2 a sec between z160-170. However, this may be some other noise than a rifle shot. It could have been an actual motorcycle backfire.

I agree with Mr. Collins opinion that a shooter in the SE window could possibly have taken shots from a seated position on the box nearest the pipes and was able to lean back and remain out of sight during the Hughes film segment of the JFK limo approaching TSBD (including turning on Elm st.) If he did so, however, then the WC theory for the box on the window ledge being used as rifle test is improbable. And what about the shell ejections? Do they fly over top of those stacked boxes if shooter fires from seated position near the pipes?

I agree with some of Andrew Masons reasons for his theory of the shots fired in a very brief few seconds,  in the 1....2..3 pattern and the 1st shot actually IS hitting JFK  Imo, however,  That 1st shot is at Z223 rather than earlier because of the tree, although the Willis girl head turn after full stop, may indicate slightly earlier at z205 perhaps in coincidence with Willis photo taken and just after Betzner photo at z186 approx. This spacing coincides fairly close to Harold Norman’s impressions of the shot spacing and his stated observation of hearing 1 shot, then saw JFK “slump” then heard 2 more shots after that.

I agree with the general SBT being plausible But only IF BOTH Connallys legs are turned towards the limo door in effect approx 45 degrees as with his apparent turned shoulders and face turned also rightward. In this position, the hat is held upside down with the right hand on top of the outer rim of the hat keeping it pressed down on top of his left leg. The well of the hat is thus hanging off the Left side of his left leg at the time of the Z223 shot that (Imo) DID penetrate thru JFK and still had enough momentum to penetrate thru Gov. Connolly also. The projectile, however, was probably NOT CE 399 as no bullet experiment except for perhaps the one  with 36” length array of sideways glued 1” pine boards , produces an MC bullet with such minimal deformation as CE 399 .