The First Shot

[Dan O'meara]

He was not accurate on when he accelerated.  That is the only thing you have shown him to be inaccurate on.  Why does that discredit the rest of his evidence, particularly evidence that is corroborated by the zfilm? That makes no sense.  What has been not been discredited is the evidence that the last shot was at z313. Perhaps you should take your advice, accept it and move on.....

"That is the only thing you have shown him to be inaccurate on."

This is a blatant falsehood and would encourage anyone reading to go to Reply #245 to grasp the scale of this falsehood.
Just to clarify - when you say he wasn't accurate on when he accelerated you are wrong, what you meant to say was that he lied about not braking during the shooting.

You seem to not understand what you can see in the Secret Service film taken in December 1963 which shows that JFK was visible when he was opposite the lamp post just to the east of where Mary Woodward stood. Mary Woodward was opposite JFK at z195.

The pictures from the re-enactment posted below show that at z195 there is no question that JFK was hidden behind foliage (which was much more dense at the time of the shooting). There is no way a shot was taken at this time.

You should actually read my posts. How does the bullet pass through JBC's abdomen?  The baby picture shows that when the torso is turned sharply as we see in z271, a shot from the rear to the armpit exiting below the right nipple does not pass through the lung.  Besides, there is evidence that corroborates the evidence of a shot at around that time.

Jerry's graphic shows the ridiculous nature of your claim of a shot around z271 hitting JBC. The shot would've hit JFK first. There's no way it would be deflected so radically to exit below his right nipple. It is beyond question that JBC's wrist position is too high (above his right nipple) to have been hit by a bullet exiting his chest below the right nipple.
And why are you always bringing up the lung?



I know there's no point highlighting these insurmountable problems as you have invested way too much time in this model to abandon it now. No matter that it's in tatters.

What I will say is that the model I'm proposing suffers from none of these devastating problems. There is not one argument that has been presented on this thread that has undermined the model I'm proposing in any way. Sure, there are some minor issues but nothing as insurmountable as the issues your own model faces.

[Andrew Mason]

"That is the only thing you have shown him to be inaccurate on."

This is a blatant falsehood and would encourage anyone reading to go to Reply #245 to grasp the scale of this falsehood.
Just to clarify - when you say he wasn't accurate on when he accelerated you are wrong, what you meant to say was that he lied about not braking during the shooting.

I don't know if he lied.  But he was not accurate.  The vehicle slowed. Whether he braked or not is not entirely clear.

The pictures from the re-enactment posted below show that at z195 there is no question that JFK was hidden behind foliage (which was much more dense at the time of the shooting). There is no way a shot was taken at this time.

First of all, there was no time in which JFK and the car was not visible through the leaves.  Just watch the Secret Service film.  If you disagree, show us where the JFK stand-in is not visible.  The car passed on the left side of the middle lane and was partially obscured only by the outer branch. A smart shooter could see where JFK would emerge from under that branch and aim there and fire as soon as JFK came into the sights. JFK is clear well before he passed the Thornton Freeway sign.  He passed that sign at frame 200 of the Zapruder film:

Jerry's graphic shows the ridiculous nature of your claim of a shot around z271 hitting JBC. The shot would've hit JFK first. There's no way it would be deflected so radically to exit below his right nipple. It is beyond question that JBC's wrist position is too high (above his right nipple) to have been hit by a bullet exiting his chest below the right nipple.

Jerry's graphic is wrong. The torso twists and the shoulders turn more than the lower ribs.  All Jerry is doing is using a forward facing chest turned 90 degrees.

The horizontal angle to JBC at frame z271 (210 feet from the point on the ground below the SN which was 60 feet above) was arctan(60/210) - 3 degrees = 13 degrees.  In the close-up of the right side, Jerry has the bullet on a 45 degree downward angle! 

At z271 the car at that point was moving almost directly away from the SN so the angle was maybe 2 degrees right to left.  Since JFK had moved quite a bit to the left, JBC's right armpit was just to the right of JFK's head.  Don't take my word for it. Take George Hickey's observation that the bullet just missed JFK's head because his hair just flew up.

And why are you always bringing up the lung?

Because the lung was not penetrated by the bullet. If you twist to the right, the right nipple and the entry point in the right armpit align without passing through the lung.  If you are facing forward the path goes through the lung.

[Andrew Mason]

LOL!

Thank-you for making my point.  One can easily see the JFK stand-in through those leaves.  There would have been no difficulty tracking JFK while under the tree.

I wouldn't trust that map as printed in the Trask book. Cutler always placed Kennedy out from the Thornton sign Z206-or-so. A lot is riding on how accurate he placed the Thornton sign.

That's fair. But I get the same result in Roberdeau's map.  And using the aerial view photo from the WC I get the same thing:

I did apply twist to the Connally model. Would you like me to put more in the upper area? You want the right nipple to move to the left?

I would like you to show what happens when you turn around while keeping your hips facing forward and your shoulders turned right with your right hand and elbow elevated with the right hand placed against the chest just as JBC is doing at z271. The right nipple moves right but the right armpit doesn't so that the right nipple and right armpit entry point align with a shot from the rear without passing through the lung.  It looks something like this only with the right side:

It's well-established that Hickey (let alone Kinney) could not see to where Kennedy's hair fluttered in the Z270s. And that both were referring to seeing scalp material fly away from the head at the moment of the head shot.

You bringing this up is trolling. You presenting some new 3D analysis proving me wrong or science showing some people can see through solid objects would not be trolling.

Ok. We know where you stand.  Hickey said he saw something that can be seen in the zfilm at exactly the time he said he saw it but didn't. You are forgetting that Hickey described the third shot as a separate shot that struck JFK in the head.

[Dan O'meara]

Thank-you for making my point.  One can easily see the JFK stand-in through those leaves.  There would have been no difficulty tracking JFK while under the tree.

 

This is moving beyond unreasonable into embarrassing.
Remember, the foliage was much more dense at the time of the assassination.
The shot did not happen at this time.
To suggest the assassin began shooting whilst trying to track his target through dense foliage is ridiculous.
A first shot at z223 avoids all this nonsense as the limo is well clear of the tree and the shooter has had time to aquire his target.

It is also noteworthy that in your last reply to my post you avoided mentioning the very uncomfortable fact that JBC's wrist position is clearly above the right nipple. In your scenario it is impossible for the bullet to exit JBC's chest and strike his wrist.
How do you account for this glaring error in your model?

I would like you to show what happens when you turn around while keeping your hips facing forward and your shoulders turned right with your right hand and elbow elevated with the right hand placed against the chest just as JBC is doing at z271. The right nipple moves right but the right armpit doesn't so that the right nipple and right armpit entry point align with a shot from the rear without passing through the lung.  It looks something like this only with the right side:

Using this image of a baby to represent the same movement of a large middle-aged man is embarrassing.
Jerry's graphic amply demonstrates the impossibility of the bullet path you are proposing, a radical deflection occurring against the momentum of the bullet (not to mention the impossible wrist-strike)

Ok. We know where you stand.  Hickey said he saw something that can be seen in the zfilm at exactly the time he said he saw it but didn't. You are forgetting that Hickey described the third shot as a separate shot that struck JFK in the head.

You are being shown that Hickey could not see the 'hair flutter' that you are proposing he did.
He could not see it.
The only reasonable conclusion is that Hickey is mistaken in the way he describes the head shot and that the hair flying up is the head strike itself.
Hickey is a single unsupported witness who could not have seen what you attribute to him.

It's time to let go

[Andrew Mason]

This is moving beyond unreasonable into embarrassing.

Why are you embarrassed?  The only thing that we do not agree on is whether the head shot was the third and last shot.   I say that the evidence is rather persuasive that it was and you think there was a shot after Oswald had obviously hit his target.  If I am right, then you would have to agree that there was a second shot around z270.

Remember, the foliage was much more dense at the time of the assassination.

On what basis do you suggest that the leaves were more dense on November 22, 1963 than on December 3, 1963?

The shot did not happen at this time.
To suggest the assassin began shooting whilst trying to track his target through dense foliage is ridiculous.

I disagree. To suggest that he didn't, without evidence, would be the odd thing.

A first shot at z223 avoids all this nonsense as the limo is well clear of the tree and the shooter has had time to acquire his target.

Bugliosi and the WC thought he was hit around z210 and the HSCA thought he was reacting to an external stimulus before disappearing behind the Stemmons sign.  It is only relatively recently that the z223 SBT has become fashionable. 

It is also noteworthy that in your last reply to my post you avoided mentioning the very uncomfortable fact that JBC's wrist position is clearly above the right nipple. In your scenario it is impossible for the bullet to exit JBC's chest and strike his wrist.
How do you account for this glaring error in your model?

I don't like to repeat myself (we have gone over this before) but since you insist: Where do you think the bullet exited?  Where do you think his right nipple is? It struck the jacket sleeve a good half an inch from the end of his jacket cuff which is pressed against his chest at the level of his right nipple in z271:

Using this image of a baby to represent the same movement of a large middle-aged man is embarrassing.

Embarrassing to whom?  The baby? 

Jerry's graphic amply demonstrates the impossibility of the bullet path you are proposing, a radical deflection occurring against the momentum of the bullet (not to mention the impossible wrist-strike)

The bullet would not deflect much but it definitely would have deflected some because it depressed the rib enough to cause a fracture near the spine. But the path from the armpit to the right nipple did not require much deflection.  Since it occurred when he was turned to the right (as Nellie told Dr. Shaw and Dr. Shires) his right nipple moved to the right.  Just sit in a chair and keeping your hips facing forward twist your torso around to the right and you will see what I mean.  The right nipple moves right so that it is practically on the side. The path from the rear along the fifth rib from the entry point to the right nipple is practically a straight line.

You are being shown that Hickey could not see the 'hair flutter' that you are proposing he did.

I did not propose that he saw the hair flutter. Hickey did - he said he saw it (Hickey CE1024 statement 30Nov63 18H762):

• "At the moment he was almost sitting erect I heard two reports which I thought were shots and that appeared to me completely different in sound than the first report and were in such rapid succession that there seemed to be practically no time element between them. It looked to me as if the President was struck in the right upper rear of his head. The first shot of the second two seemed as if it missed because the hair on the right side of his head flew forward and there didn't seem to be any impact against his head. The last shot seemed to hit his head and cause a noise at the point of impact which made him fall forward and to his left again."

He could not see it.
The only reasonable conclusion is that Hickey is mistaken in the way he describes the head shot and that the hair flying up is the head strike itself.
Hickey is a single unsupported witness who could not have seen what you attribute to him.

Hickey is supported by the zfilm.   Hickey was turned around to the rear still at z255 (Altgens #6) but he said he turned forward and heard the last two shots while looking at the President.  So that means the last two shots occurred after z255.  The only time that JFK's hair lifts up during the period z255-z312 is from z273-z276.  I don't like to use terms like "ridiculous" but if it is to be used, I would say that would be better used to describe your suggestion that Hickey imagined but did not see JFK's hair fly up in those 3 seconds between z255 and z312 and then by some miracle coincidence JFK's hair actually did fly up then just as he described. 

It's time to let go

Maybe it is time to let go thinking that the head shot was the second shot. 

[Andrew Mason]

The HSCA thought Kennedy suddenly turned towards his wife approx.-Z200 as he went behind the sign. But whoever suggested that didn't have a very clear set of Zapruder frames, because later analysis showed the President's remained facing forward in that interval.

That is not only what the HSCA based its conclusion on.  At 6 HSCA 17 the Photographic panel concluded:

• "(70) At approximately Zapruder frame 200, Kennedy's movements
  suddenly freeze ; his right hand abruptly stops in the midst of a waving
  motion and his head moves rapidly from right to his left in the
  direction of his wife. Based on these movements, it appears that by the
  time the President goes behind the sign at frame 207 he is evidencing
  some kind of reaction to a severe external stimulus. By the time he
  emerges from behind the sign at Zapruder frame 225, the President
  makes a clutching motion with his hands toward his neck, indicating
  clearly that he has been shot."

They did not say he was not facing forward.  His head was turned sharply to the right in z193. Turning to his left is to face forward.

How can the right arm be "pressed" again the jacket? The crown of the hat would be several inches into his chest. You kidder.

Really Jerry? Let me guess - you don't own a stetson do you?

Connally is leaning into the seatback of his seat, so his right nipple is lower than his left. On the line-of-sight to Zapruder, the right nipple would be seen visible just above the car rail (though some distance from the car rail itself if shown in other views).

Your right nipple is that low?  Mine is 7 inches below the top of my tie knot.

How do you know Hickey hadn't looked back earlier? Or that he was too ashamed to say he continued looking back until after hearing a second shot?

Because he said so.   He said he looked rearward and then looked forward and was looking at JFK at the time he heard the second and third shots.

Your Theory requires Hickey to turn his head around between Z55 and Z271 (just shy of one sec), locate where the President is, observe him  "slumped forward and to his left, and was straightening up to an almost erect sitting position" and then witness "the hair on the right side of his head flew forward". All in one second.

Can you not turn your head in much less than a second? I can. Greer turned his head from looking rearward to looking forward between z289 and z294. That is a bit more than a quarter of a second.

[Dan O'meara]

That is not what the HSCA based its conclusion on.  At 6 HSCA 17 the Photographic panel concluded:

• "(70) At approximately Zapruder frame 200, Kennedy's movements
  suddenly freeze ; his right hand abruptly stops in the midst of a waving
  motion and his head moves rapidly from right to his left in the
  direction of his wife. Based on these movements, it appears that by the
  time the President goes behind the sign at frame 207 he is evidencing
  some kind of reaction to a severe external stimulus. By the time he
  emerges from behind the sign at Zapruder frame 225, the President
  makes a clutching motion with his hands toward his neck, indicating
  clearly that he has been shot."

This has been completely debunked elsewhere in this thread.
Yet another pillar supporting your model topples.

Because he said so.   He said he looked rearward and then looked forward and was looking at JFK at the time he heard the second and third shots.
Can you not turn your head in much less than a second? I can. Greer turned his head from looking rearward to looking forward between z289 and z294. That is a bit more than a quarter of a second.

The point about Hickey (other than being the sole witness to the 'pre-headshot hair ruffle) is that he describes the second and third shot as follows -  "there seemed to be practically no time element between them".
Think about that - practically no time element.
He is describing JFK's hair flying up due to his head exploding and the subsequent movement of his body as two separate incidents that have "no time element between them".

Hickey is not describing the 'hair ruffle' seen in Zapruder, Jerry has ably demonstrated he is not in a position to see it but, also, there is at least two seconds between the z-film 'hair ruffle' and the headshot. In no way can this be described as having 'practically no time element between them'.
You have put too much stock in this single, unsupported witness who is clearly describing something other than you would have us believe.
Another pillar crumbles.

[Andrew Mason]

This has been completely debunked elsewhere in this thread.
Yet another pillar supporting your model topples.

I was just pointing out that others have opined that JFK appeared to be struck before z223.  You agree that JFK was struck on the first shot. Phil Willis said his z202 photo was taken just after the first shot.  So I am not alone in thinking the first shot was earlier than z223.  You agree with the 1..........2......3 shot pattern.  If the head shot was the last shot, as many witnesses said and which makes sense, then the first shot had to be earlier than z223. 

The point about Hickey (other than being the sole witness to the 'pre-headshot hair ruffle) is that he describes the second and third shot as follows -  "there seemed to be practically no time element between them".
Think about that - practically no time element.

He is describing JFK's hair flying up due to his head exploding and the subsequent movement of his body as two separate incidents that have "no time element between them".

I can't tell what he meant by "practically".  Obviously, he did not mean there was no discernible period of time between them. Perhaps he meant that there was no period of silence between them.  Mary Woodward observed that the sound of the second shot had not died out before the third was heard:

• "The second two shots were immediate --- it was almost as if one were an echo of the other -- they came so quickly. The sound of one did not cease until the second shot.” … “and then the third shot came very, very quickly, on top of the second one”.

Hickey is not describing the 'hair ruffle' seen in Zapruder, Jerry has ably demonstrated he is not in a position to see it but, also, there is at least two seconds between the z-film 'hair ruffle' and the headshot. In no way can this be described as having 'practically no time element between them'.
You have put too much stock in this single, unsupported witness who is clearly describing something other than you would have us believe.

So how do you account for the fact that 1) he reported seeing JFK's hair fly up at the moment he heard the second shot as if it just missed his head on the right side and 2) JFK's hair actually flies up from z273 to z276 just as he said he observed?  How is that even possible unless he actually saw what he said he saw?  Jerry was not there.  Hickey was. He was standing up in the QM. How can you be so sure he could not see JFK?  Are you suggesting he did not see the head shot?