The First Shot

[Andrew Mason]

On the contrary, the model I'm proposing fits JBC's testimony very well. It is your model that has to reject almost every salient point of his testimony.

It does not fit the evidence of the Connallys that JBC was hit on the second shot.  Minor details have to fit with the rest of the evidence and some (how he was facing when hit, and when he said "no, no, no") are unclear even from the JBC's own statements made at various times.

JBC would become aware of being shot approximately 500 milliseconds after impact, this is roughly equivalent to 9 Z-frames.

It does not take 500 ms to feel an impact.  It may take 100-200 ms to respond physically, but there is no perceptible time lag between the impact and feeling the impact.  And it makes no sense that he heard the shot 100 ms after it reached his ears but did not feel the shot until 500 ms after it hit. You are just making that up.

He is also adamant he cries out "Oh, no, no, no" after being hit. This is confirmed by Jackie Kennedy's testimony where she describes JBC screaming it "like a stuck pig".

Hardly "adamant".  He was of the opposite view in 1966 and was very unsure in 1978.  Nellie always maintained that he said it after the first and before the second shot that hit him in the back.  Jackie's evidence is not materially different. 

Again, we are into contradictory eye witness accounts. For every witness you produce who thinks he headshot is the last shot I will produce one who is sure there was a shot after the headshot. Evidence you have to ignore as I have to ignore those who insist the headshot was the last shot. Where does that get us.
As to why the shooter would take another shot after the patently devastating headshot, I can only speculate. The rapidity of the final shot, so close behind the second shot may indicate the shooter had already decided to take the third shot before he even got off the second one. Pure speculation.

There had to be at least 2 seconds between them. Oswald had to use the bolt action to eject the shell and load a new cartridge. He may not have had to reaim if he was holding the rifle tightly to himself and the boxes. But if that was the case, why did it miss the whole car?

Again, missing the shot completely can be explained by the rapidity of the third shot behind the second. It is even possible the shot was pulled as Clint Hill came into sight. Pure speculation.
As for there being no evidence of a third shot - there is clear evidence a manhole cover was struck during the shooting and it is possible a fragment of this caused Tague's injury.

It is perhaps a minor problem, but Tague said the shot that struck him was on the second shot.

"In the 3 shot, 3 hit scenario, there are no fundamental disagreements with the evidence."

This is a pretty wild statement and it most certainly depends on the evidence you have specifically chosen to support your model. To assert it doesn't fundamentally disagree with all the evidence is way out there.

When I say "fundamentally" I am referring to important material facts that can be established by and are consistent with the preponderance of the evidence. 

You agree that the first shot passed through JFK's neck, that the shot pattern was 1......2...3 and that there were three shots.  But you disagree that the second shot struck JBC and offer all sorts of reasons why JBC's and Nellie's clear evidence that he was struck on the second shot was wrong, along with Greer, Powers, Newman, and Hickey. But your excuses for why they may have been wrong is not evidence that he was hit by the first shot. You need evidence that JBC was struck in the back on the first shot.   There is no such evidence at all. None.

Similarly, with the "missing shot" required by the SBT, there would have to be evidence of a missed shot.  There is none.  The witnesses who gave evidence that some use to support a missed shot are not consistent with each other let alone consistent with a missed shot.

At its most elementary level, the evidence as to the shots establishes at least the following:

1. that the shot pattern was 1.......2...3
2. that the second shot struck JBC.
3. that there were three shots.

Only the three shot, three hit scenario fits that evidence and is consistent with the zfilm.

Your main problems are -

The shot at z195 occurs while JFK is hidden by the foliage of the oak tree.

He was never hidden by the foliage and, besides, by z195 he was clear of the tree as the Secret Service film from December 1963 shows. I suggest that this is where it occurred because Jack Ready starts doing what he said he did after the first shot at z199; that Phil Willis said he took his z202 photo immediately after the first shot; that Linda Willis put the first shot when JFK was between her and the Stemmons sign which is between z195 and z205; that TE Moore and D. Hooker said the president was at or almost at the Thornton Freeway sign when the first shot sounded (z200); Rosemary Willis turns her head sharply rearward toward the TSBD at z204 - she said she did immediately after the first shot and saw pigeons flying from the TSBD; etc.

I know you like to do some sketchy calculation using a video of the re-enactment. But the evidence of the re-enactment itself - the synchronising of photos from the SN with photos of "JFK" from Zapruders' position demonstrate, beyond a shadow of doubt, JFK is obscured by the foliage at z195 (foliage that was much denser at the time of the assassination). To have the assassin shooting through the tree is a non-starter. My model has no such problem.

Why would the foliage be denser on May 24 than on Nov. 22?  You can see in the SS film that JFK is clear of the foliage before he reaches the Thornton sign.

You also have no clear, unambiguous reaction to a shot at z195 anywhere in the Z-film. This can hardly be said about my own model.

You are assuming there is no reaction behind the sign AND that there would necessarily be a demonstrative reaction immediately.

The physical unlikelihood (bordering on impossibility) of the shot at z271 passing through JBC.

I will leave it to experts to opine on that. To my knowledge such a scenario was never presented to any medical expert. 

JBC is turned 'shoulder on' to the SN making a strike to the top of his right armpit almost impossible but let's say it does strike him there - the bullet is moving away from JBC's body yet you are proposing the bullet, through some completely unknown mechanism, does a turn between 45 and 90 degrees to exit his chest.

It deflects very little. If you turn JBC to the right his right armpit and right nipple align pretty well with a shot to the rear (at that point, the angle of the car to Oswald was essentially 0 - a straight line) without passing through the right lung.

It then strikes his wrist but the Z-film unequivocally shows there is no reaction to a shot that shattered his large wrist bone at the moment you propose. Another borderline impossibility.

I have to strongly disagree.  Dr. Shires indicated that the wrist would likely have been pressed against his chest in order for the bullet to drag jacket fibres deeply into the wrist wound. He also said that for the bullet to have struck the dorsal side of the wrist as it did, the wrist would have to be turned (pronated) which would occur naturally if he was turned right.   The only time he has the wrist in that position and is turned right is from about z240-280.

We've already looked at how you have to dismiss nearly all of JBC's testimony.

I don't attribute much weight to his recollections of minor details unless they are consistent with the rest of the evidence.  The evidence that he was struck on the second shot is reliable because it does fit the rest of the evidence.  He was not sure of how was facing and when he was hit or when he said "no, no, no" in relation to when he was hit.  His opinion as to which zframe he was hit does not fit with the rest of his evidence, let alone other bodies of reliable evidence, particularly the 1.......2...3 shot pattern.

[Dan O'meara]

It does not fit the evidence of the Connallys that JBC was hit on the second shot.  Minor details have to fit with the rest of the evidence and some (how he was facing when hit, and when he said "no, no, no") are unclear even from the JBC's own statements made at various times.
It does not take 500 ms to feel an impact.  It may take 100-200 ms to respond physically, but there is no perceptible time lag between the impact and feeling the impact.  And it makes no sense that he heard the shot 100 ms after it reached his ears but did not feel the shot until 500 ms after it hit. You are just making that up.Hardly "adamant".  He was of the opposite view in 1966 and was very unsure in 1978.  Nellie always maintained that he said it after the first and before the second shot that hit him in the back.  Jackie's evidence is not materially different. 
There had to be at least 2 seconds between them. Oswald had to use the bolt action to eject the shell and load a new cartridge. He may not have had to reaim if he was holding the rifle tightly to himself and the boxes. But if that was the case, why did it miss the whole car?
It is perhaps a minor problem, but Tague said the shot that struck him was on the second shot.
When I say "fundamentally" I am referring to important material facts that can be established by and are consistent with the preponderance of the evidence. 

You agree that the first shot passed through JFK's neck, that the shot pattern was 1......2...3 and that there were three shots.  But you disagree that the second shot struck JBC and offer all sorts of reasons why JBC's and Nellie's clear evidence that he was struck on the second shot was wrong, along with Greer, Powers, Newman, and Hickey. But your excuses for why they may have been wrong is not evidence that he was hit by the first shot. You need evidence that JBC was struck in the back on the first shot.   There is no such evidence at all. None.

Similarly, with the "missing shot" required by the SBT, there would have to be evidence of a missed shot.  There is none.  The witnesses who gave evidence that some use to support a missed shot are not consistent with each other let alone consistent with a missed shot.

At its most elementary level, the evidence as to the shots establishes at least the following:

1. that the shot pattern was 1.......2...3
2. that the second shot struck JBC.
3. that there were three shots.

Only the three shot, three hit scenario fits that evidence and is consistent with the zfilm.
He was never hidden by the foliage and, besides, by z195 he was clear of the tree as the Secret Service film from December 1963 shows. I suggest that this is where it occurred because Jack Ready starts doing what he said he did after the first shot at z199; that Phil Willis said he took his z202 photo immediately after the first shot; that Linda Willis put the first shot when JFK was between her and the Stemmons sign which is between z195 and z205; that TE Moore and D. Hooker said the president was at or almost at the Thornton Freeway sign when the first shot sounded (z200); Rosemary Willis turns her head sharply rearward toward the TSBD at z204 - she said she did immediately after the first shot and saw pigeons flying from the TSBD; etc.
Why would the foliage be denser on May 24 than on Nov. 22?  You can see in the SS film that JFK is clear of the foliage before he reaches the Thornton sign.
You are assuming there is no reaction behind the sign AND that there would necessarily be a demonstrative reaction immediately.
I will leave it to experts to opine on that. To my knowledge such a scenario was never presented to any medical expert.  It deflects very little. If you turn JBC to the right his right armpit and right nipple align pretty well with a shot to the rear (at that point, the angle of the car to Oswald was essentially 0 - a straight line) without passing through the right lung.
I have to strongly disagree.  Dr. Shires indicated that the wrist would likely have been pressed against his chest in order for the bullet to drag jacket fibres deeply into the wrist wound. He also said that for the bullet to have struck the dorsal side of the wrist as it did, the wrist would have to be turned (pronated) which would occur naturally if he was turned right.   The only time he has the wrist in that position and is turned right is from about z240-280.
I don't attribute much weight to his recollections of minor details unless they are consistent with the rest of the evidence.  The evidence that he was struck on the second shot is reliable because it does fit the rest of the evidence.  He was not sure of how was facing and when he was hit or when he said "no, no, no" in relation to when he was hit.  His opinion as to which zframe he was hit does not fit with the rest of his evidence, let alone other bodies of reliable evidence, particularly the 1.......2...3 shot pattern.

There is so much I disagree with in your post but I would like to focus on one thing regarding your proposed shot at z271.
The bullet exits JBC's chest and strikes his wrist shattering the large radius bone. It is a serious blow to his wrist but in the Z-film there is absolutely no instantaneous, mechanical reaction to this proposed shot at z271.
In the clip below we see JBC with his wrist in front of his chest, The clip runs from z268 to z280. At z271/272 JBC's wrist should be blown apart by a bullet exiting his chest but we see no such thing:



Here is a close up of the same clip:



This must be considered irrefutable proof that there is no shot that shatters JBC's wrist when you propose. To imagine he could sustain such a high impact injury without any kind of movement is a non-starter.

[Andrew Mason]

There is so much I disagree with in your post but I would like to focus on one thing regarding your proposed shot at z271.
The bullet exits JBC's chest and strikes his wrist shattering the large radius bone. It is a serious blow to his wrist but in the Z-film there is absolutely no instantaneous, mechanical reaction to this proposed shot at z271.
In the clip below we see JBC with his wrist in front of his chest, The clip runs from z268 to z280. At z271/272 JBC's wrist should be blown apart by a bullet exiting his chest but we see no such thing:



Here is a close up of the same clip:



This must be considered irrefutable proof that there is no shot that shatters JBC's wrist when you propose. To imagine he could sustain such a high impact injury without any kind of movement is a non-starter.

First of all, if it struck at z271 with his wrist and arm pinned between the chest and the seat back, a bullet striking the back of the radius is not going to move the wrist away from the chest, which is the direction that the bullet was travelling.   What it is more likely to do is change the clothing slightly and/or change the position of the hand slightly.  That is the kind of change we see from z271 to z272.

Second, JBC did not become aware of the wrist wound until he woke up with a bandage on his wrist after surgery.  That is easy to understand if he had it pressed against his chest and kept it pressed there.  That is more difficult to understand if his wrist was flying around and hanging on to his hat, which is what the SBT at z223 requires.

[Dan O'meara]

First of all, if it struck at z271 with his wrist and arm pinned between the chest and the seat back, a bullet striking the back of the radius is not going to move the wrist away from the chest, which is the direction that the bullet was travelling. 

Really Andrew?
When unequivocal and irrefutable evidence is put forward it's time to review and reassess your position.
In my opinion this would be the reaction of someone who genuinely wanted to get to the truth of what happened during the assassination.
I can say, with pride, it is something I've done myself on a couple of occasions when confronted with evidence that clearly demonstrated the way I was looking at things was incorrect and I hope it's something that happens again as it brings me closer to fully understanding these events. I know when I've been confronted with these things I've experienced something I've referred to elsewhere as "unseeing". - an almost conscious determination not to see what is before my eyes because it contradicts my previously held beliefs.

Look at this clip with open and honest eyes and you will see the near-impossibility of what you are suggesting - that a bullet exploding out of JBC's chest, shatters his wrist bone - the large part of the radius - and that this substantial force does not blow his hand out of the way:



There is not even the slightest hint that anything like this happens.
The reason for this is that JBC's wrist has already been shattered - at z223 - which is why his hand is being held at such an unnatural angle.

[Andrew Mason]

Really Andrew?
When unequivocal and irrefutable evidence is put forward it's time to review and reassess your position.
In my opinion this would be the reaction of someone who genuinely wanted to get to the truth of what happened during the assassination.

The problem is that you have not provided unequivocal and irrefutable evidence. The shot around z270 is a conclusion that necessarily follows from the clear and unrefuted evidence of three facts:

• there were 3 shots
• JBC was hit in the back on the second shot, and
• the last two shots were closer together with the shot pattern being 1.........2...3

Look at this clip with open and honest eyes and you will see the near-impossibility of what you are suggesting - that a bullet exploding out of JBC's chest, shatters his wrist bone - the large part of the radius - and that this substantial force does not blow his hand out of the way:

How bullet impacts manifest themselves requires an analysis of details we do not have.  If, as it appears, JBC's right arm was pinned against his chest at z271 between the seat back and his side, it doesn't surprise me that the glancing impact of a partially spent and deformed bullet that fragmented on striking the radius if not sooner did not cause his forearm to move much. It does move there, but not much.  You can see that the position of the hand and particularly the hat relative to the hand changes between z271 and 272.  I am surprised you cannot see JBC sail forward from z272-278 before he gets pulled down onto Nellie.  I am surprised that you cannot relate the hair on JFK's head that flies up from z273-276 to the hair movement that Hickey described on the second shot which appeared to just miss JFK. I am surprised that you are unable to accept Greer's recollection of his turn immediately after the second shot and of the concussion sound on the second shot (consistent with the damage to the windshield frame just above his head).  I am surprised that you ignore Tague's recollection that he was hit in the face on the second shot. 

The fact is that all of this evidence fits a shot around z271-272, which is what the above 3 enumerated facts tell you must have occurred.  You don't need to argue about a shot at z271-272.  You need to provide evidence that JBC was hit in the back on the first shot.  If he was not, then there had to have been a shot 40 frames or so before the head shot and it had to have hit JBC in the back.

[Dan O'meara]

The problem is that you have not provided unequivocal and irrefutable evidence. The shot around z270 is a conclusion that necessarily follows from the clear and unrefuted evidence of three facts:

• there were 3 shots
• JBC was hit in the back on the second shot, and
• the last two shots were closer together with the shot pattern being 1.........2...3

The Z-film is unequivocal and irrefutable proof that Connally is not shot through the wrist at z271.
If we assume the bullet that shatters JBC's wrist first explodes out of JBC's chest, what you are proposing is a physical impossibility for a combination of two issues:
!) To suggest such a shot, passing through JBC's wrist, shattering the radius bone would not cause any kind of significant movement is truly preposterous which is confirmed by..
2) The position of JBC's wrist at the moment you claim it is hit. Look at this close-up from z272, the moment after the bullet has exited JBC's chest. The 'back' of JBC's wrist, where the bullet entered on its way through his wrist is facing upwards, towards JBC's face.
It is physically impossible that a bullet exiting JBC's chest on a downward trajectory could enter the back of his wrist given the position we see it in this pic:



I have gathered already that you cannot face up to such unequivocal evidence so it is going to be interesting to see how you circumnavigate this particular issue.

[Andrew Mason]

The Z-film is unequivocal and irrefutable proof that Connally is not shot through the wrist at z271.

If the zfilm was unequivocal and irrefutable there would not be evidence that he was hit on the second shot. There is. So you have to deal with the evidence of the Connallys that he was not hit in the back on the first shot.  Suggesting that the Connally evidence is flawed does not constitute evidence that he was hit on the first shot.  There is zero evidence that he was hit in the back on the first shot. There are are multiple independent sources that support the Connallys that he was hit on the second shot.

If we assume the bullet that shatters JBC's wrist first explodes out of JBC's chest, what you are proposing is a physical impossibility for a combination of two issues:
1) To suggest such a shot, passing through JBC's wrist, shattering the radius bone would not cause any kind of significant movement is truly preposterous which is confirmed by..

But his forearm is pressed against his chest. The bullet strikes the back of the radius that is pressed against the chest.  The bullet or fragments pass through the last half inch of his jacket sleeve, penetrate the french cuff of his shirt in the middle about an inch and a half from the end of the french cuff and deflect back off the wrist causing a large and very irregular hole in the shirt cuff:

It is apparent that the holes in the jacket and shirt are in the same location at z271.

The hole in the french cuff can be compared to the relatively small exit hole in the jacket pocket just below the right nipple where the bullet exited the chest. There is no hole on the volar or palm side of the cuff. 


The bullet or fragments would have deflected away from the point of contact, which is up.  So the fragments fracture the wrist and deflect upward. Where is the wrist going to move?  It is not going to move away from the chest.   
 

2) The position of JBC's wrist at the moment you claim it is hit. Look at this close-up from z272, the moment after the bullet has exited JBC's chest. The 'back' of JBC's wrist, where the bullet entered on its way through his wrist is facing upwards, towards JBC's face.

No. It is facing the chest. The wrist is pronated so the dorsal side is pressed against the chest.

It is physically impossible that a bullet exiting JBC's chest on a downward trajectory could enter the back of his wrist given the position we see it in this pic:
I have gathered already that you cannot face up to such unequivocal evidence so it is going to be interesting to see how you circumnavigate this particular issue.

It is easier to understand the wrist position by assuming JBC's position.  The back of the wrist is pressing against his chest.  The bullet does not penetrate the wrist. The fragments deflect off the back of the wrist.  This may be why the shirt sleeve has a much larger and more irregular hole in the back of the cuff: the long irregular hole is partly an entrance hole and partly an exit hole made by the bullet/fragments  There is no damage to the other side of the cuff. This is consistent with the bulk of the bullet deflecting up off the impact point on the radius and not penetrating the wrist or other side of the cuff.

[Jerry Organ]

If the zfilm was unequivocal and irrefutable there would not be evidence that he was hit on the second shot. There is.

But it's the Z220s double-hit and corresponding simultaneous reactions. Not Z271; that's "Greer shot Kennedy" territory.

So you have to deal with the evidence of the Connallys that he was not hit in the back on the first shot. 

No less demanding is the fact that Connally was not hit in the thigh on the first shot. That's how silly your Theory is. Furthermore, 3D analysis shows a bullet transiting Kennedy's neck in the Z190s (your Theory's first shot: Z195) will arrive at a point to the right of Connally's mid-line, not pass by the outside of his left torso (per your failed Theory). That is, if one doesn't use Gumby as a model.

Suggesting that the Connally evidence is flawed does not constitute evidence that he was hit on the first shot.  There is zero evidence that he was hit in the back on the first shot. There are are multiple independent sources that support the Connallys that he was hit on the second shot.

Which rules out his thigh stopping cold a bullet that slowed only a bit after passing through the President's neck.

But his forearm is pressed against his chest. The bullet strikes the back of the radius that is pressed against the chest.

3D shows he held the Stetson and that part of the hat was between his wrist and the chest. It also indicates that the Governor's head moved about one foot towards Nellie between Z255 and Z271.



Now here's your Daliesque version showing the torso transit ...

The bullet or fragments pass through the last half inch of his jacket sleeve, penetrate the french cuff of his shirt in the middle about an inch and a half from the end of the french cuff and deflect back off the wrist causing a large and very irregular hole in the shirt cuff:

It is apparent that the holes in the jacket and shirt are in the same location at z271.

A bullet emerging from below the nipple in Z271 travels substantially downward and away from the wrist.

The hole in the french cuff can be compared to the relatively small exit hole in the jacket pocket just below the right nipple where the bullet exited the chest. There is no hole on the volar or palm side of the cuff.

The bullet or fragments would have deflected away from the point of contact, which is up.  So the fragments fracture the wrist and deflect upward. Where is the wrist going to move?  It is not going to move away from the chest.   
 
No. It is facing the chest. The wrist is pronated so the dorsal side is pressed against the chest.It is easier to understand the wrist position by assuming JBC's position.  The back of the wrist is pressing against his chest.  The bullet does not penetrate the wrist. The fragments deflect off the back of the wrist.  This may be why the shirt sleeve has a much larger and more irregular hole in the back of the cuff: the long irregular hole is partly an entrance hole and partly an exit hole made by the bullet/fragments  There is no damage to the other side of the cuff. This is consistent with the bulk of the bullet deflecting up off the impact point on the radius and not penetrating the wrist or other side of the cuff.

Same scenario would work for the wrist injury occurring in the Z220s. The slowed whole bullet would deflect off the wrist and, slowed even more, into the thigh.

Sorry your Theory's first two shots have failed the BS Test. Concede the election.