The First Shot

[Andrew Mason]

The Tyler/Speer evidence is not consistent with a first shot at z195.
This has been comprehensively demonstrated.
Your attempts to deny this fact have ranged from humorous to disturbing.
At z195 the VP security car is still in the process of making the turn off Houston onto Elm.
The occupants of the VP security car make it clear the vehicle has completed the turn and is now travelling on the incline down Elm Street.

Dan, I am just quoting the z190-z224 range from the Pat Speers excerpt that you quoted in your reply post on November 02, 2020, 12:39:46 PM (#152).  The author stated that the witness evidence was consistent with a shot as early as z195.  Are you not relying on the same witnesses?  Or did you find some that Speers missed?

[Dan O'meara]

Dan, I am just quoting the z190-z224 range from the Pat Speers excerpt that you quoted in your reply post on November 02, 2020, 12:39:46 PM (#152).  The author stated that the witness evidence was consistent with a shot as early as z195.  Are you not relying on the same witnesses?  Or did you find some that Speers missed?

The majority of the witness statements regarding the shots fall within the z190-z224 range.
However, the first shot occurred at a specific frame within the z190-z224 range.
The beauty of the Tyler/Speer evidence is that it relates to a very specific moment - just after both the VP and VP security cars have completed the turn off Houston onto Elm St - and that this moment can be compared to Z-frames.
At z195 the VP security car is still the process of turning and, as such, z195 can be ruled out as the moment of the first shot.
It comes as no surprise to me, after the multitude of arguments I have presented in this thread for a first shot at z223, that mine is the only theory supported by the Tyler/Speer evidence.

   And no, I didn't come up with any witnesses Pat Speer had missed. I don't think anyone has.

[Andrew Mason]

The majority of the witness statements regarding the shots fall within the z190-z224 range.
However, the first shot occurred at a specific frame within the z190-z224 range.
The beauty of the Tyler/Speer evidence is that it relates to a very specific moment - just after both the VP and VP security cars have completed the turn off Houston onto Elm St - and that this moment can be compared to Z-frames.
At z195 the VP security car is still the process of turning and, as such, z195 can be ruled out as the moment of the first shot.
It comes as no surprise to me, after the multitude of arguments I have presented in this thread for a first shot at z223, that mine is the only theory supported by the Tyler/Speer evidence.

   And no, I didn't come up with any witnesses Pat Speer had missed. I don't think anyone has.

I understand all that.  But included in those 159 witnesses are people like Linda Willis, Phil Willis, Jack Ready, TE Moore who put the first shot at least a second earlier, one of whom, Phil Willis, gave a definitive statement that the first shot was just an instant before he pressed the shutter on his z202 photo.  You say Phil Willis is only one witness, but he isn't. Linda Willis supports him. She was standing between her mother and Croft.  When you plot the sightlines from her to the edges of the Stemmons sign on the Roberdeau map, it covers a region from just after z192 to just before z207.  TE Moore also corroborates Phil Willis.  He said that by the time the President had reached the Thornton Freeway sign the first shot sounded. JFK was opposite that sign at z200. There are others along Elm who provide similar corroboration.

You are choosing to ignore those witnesses in favour of your interpretation of the statements of the occupants of the VP Security car. In my view, these occupants are not saying anything more than their car had turned off Houston onto Elm and that is consistent with a first shot where Phil Willis, Linda Willis and TE Moore describe it.

[Dan O'meara]

I understand all that.

My work here is done 

 

[Andrew Mason]

My work here is done 

It is interesting that in his animation of the motorcade, Mark Tyler has the first shot sound at about z185.  He also shows that at z201 the President's car is where Karen Westbrook and Gloria Calvery placed it just after the time of the first shot. (Calvery, 22H638: "The car he was in was almost directly in front of where I was standing when I heard the first shot.").


Tyler's analysis does not exclude a first shot at z195. He says (MC63 Handbook, p. 21):

"As we can see from the Zapruder film there are two obvious signs
of the victims being struck by bullets during these times:
• Z225-Z230
• Z313-Z318
These two events are unambiguously the result of gunshot wounds.
Due to the Stemmons Freeway sign, the Zapruder film doesn’t reveal
the exact moment that the two victims were hit so the shot
could have been fired from any point during Z185-Z220. If the movements
we see at Z225-Z230 are the initial reactions then the gunshot
was probably fired during Z210-Z220. However if this is a reaction
to a second shot, then the first shot could have been fired
earlier, such as Z185-Z200 (which may have missed the victims in
the car)."

What he does not address is the time of the first shot if the movements seen at z225-230 are not the initial reactions: ie.the initial reactions to the first shot began while JFK is behind the Stemmons sign.  He is also assuming that the reaction of JBC to the shot that JFK is obviously reacting to is to being hit in the back by it and not, as JBC himself said, to the recognition of it as a rifle shot, thinking an assassination was unfolding and fearing for the President.

[John Iacoletti]

I don't know how you could possibly know that he is "gasping for breath" here.

[Dan O'meara]

It is interesting that in his animation of the motorcade, Mark Tyler has the first shot sound at about z185.  He also shows that at z201 the President's car is where Karen Westbrook and Gloria Calvery placed it just after the time of the first shot. (Calvery, 22H638: "The car he was in was almost directly in front of where I was standing when I heard the first shot.").


Tyler's analysis does not exclude a first shot at z195. He says (MC63 Handbook, p. 21):

"As we can see from the Zapruder film there are two obvious signs
of the victims being struck by bullets during these times:
• Z225-Z230
• Z313-Z318
These two events are unambiguously the result of gunshot wounds.
Due to the Stemmons Freeway sign, the Zapruder film doesn’t reveal
the exact moment that the two victims were hit so the shot
could have been fired from any point during Z185-Z220. If the movements
we see at Z225-Z230 are the initial reactions then the gunshot
was probably fired during Z210-Z220. However if this is a reaction
to a second shot, then the first shot could have been fired
earlier, such as Z185-Z200 (which may have missed the victims in
the car)."

What he does not address is the time of the first shot if the movements seen at z225-230 are not the initial reactions: ie.the initial reactions to the first shot began while JFK is behind the Stemmons sign.  He is also assuming that the reaction of JBC to the shot that JFK is obviously reacting to is to being hit in the back by it and not, as JBC himself said, to the recognition of it as a rifle shot, thinking an assassination was unfolding and fearing for the President.

Oh, why did you have to come back?
My last post would've been a great way to end this thread.
But here you are, back for yet another lesson in basic English.

"He also shows that at z201 the President's car is where Karen Westbrook and Gloria Calvery placed it just after the time of the first shot."

When Calvery says the car was almost directly in front of her, there are two key components to the description - "directly in front of her" and "almost".
In English, this is the equivalent of saying "not quite directly in front" OR, to be super-precise, it is the same as saying "The President's car was not directly in front of her".
When we look at Tyler's mapping program, we can see that the limo is directly in front of Calvery from, roughly speaking, z190 to z214.
Unfortunately for you, z195 falls within this range and, as we can see from the graphic, at z195 the limo was directly in front of Calvery.
So, even on this tiniest of details, your model is refuted. Yet again. For about the 12th time.

"Tyler's analysis does not exclude a first shot at z195."

This isn't about Tyler's analysis, or Speer's analysis or even my own analysis.
The Tyler/Speer evidence I have presented speaks for itself.
It cannot realistically be denied, which is why you have provided no credible argument against it.
Every turn and twist you have tried you have been thwarted because this evidence speaks for itself.
It is very strong evidence and should be embraced as such but you would rather deny it because it doesn't fit with what you've decided. This, in my opinion, is a disgraceful way to approach the evidence.

But keep coming back.
It's a pleasure to continually serve you up in front of the rest of the forum.

[Andrew Mason]

Oh, why did you have to come back?
My last post would've been a great way to end this thread.
But here you are, back for yet another lesson in basic English.

"He also shows that at z201 the President's car is where Karen Westbrook and Gloria Calvery placed it just after the time of the first shot."

When Calvery says the car was almost directly in front of her, there are two key components to the description - "directly in front of her" and "almost".
In English, this is the equivalent of saying "not quite directly in front" OR, to be super-precise, it is the same as saying "The President's car was not directly in front of her".
When we look at Tyler's mapping program, we can see that the limo is directly in front of Calvery from, roughly speaking, z190 to z214.
Unfortunately for you, z195 falls within this range and, as we can see from the graphic, at z195 the limo was directly in front of Calvery.
So, even on this tiniest of details, your model is refuted. Yet again. For about the 12th time.

"Tyler's analysis does not exclude a first shot at z195."

This isn't about Tyler's analysis, or Speer's analysis or even my own analysis.
The Tyler/Speer evidence I have presented speaks for itself.
It cannot realistically be denied, which is why you have provided no credible argument against it.
Every turn and twist you have tried you have been thwarted because this evidence speaks for itself.
It is very strong evidence and should be embraced as such but you would rather deny it because it doesn't fit with what you've decided. This, in my opinion, is a disgraceful way to approach the evidence.

But keep coming back.
It's a pleasure to continually serve you up in front of the rest of the forum.

Again, you are relying completely on your interpretation that the occupants of the VP security car, in saying that they had made the turn onto Elm, could not possibly have been referring to the position of their car as shown in the Tyler animation at z201.  Particularly when Carter said that their car was along-side the TSBD - which is exactly the position seen in Tyler's animation at z201.  For some reason, you want to belittle others for disagreeing with your interpretation.

Mark Tyler was very aware of all these statements and states that the first shot could have been as early as z195.  So, in your view, has Tyler taken a disgraceful way to approach the evidence? 

The credible argument against the first shot being as late as z223 is based on evidence: Phil Willis, Linda Willis, the shot pattern (with the last shot being the head shot), SA Jack Ready, Rosemary Willis, as well as Croft and Betzner.   So you can't say I haven't presented an argument against a first shot at z223 based on credible evidence.  I can't help it if you don't find it credible and somehow think that no one could possibly have an honest belief that this evidence is credible and reliable.