The First Shot

[Andrew Mason]

The medias influence began at 12:34 with Walter Cronkite reading Merrimans Smith's News flash.

"Three shots were fired at President Kennedy's motorcade today in downtown Dallas."

Yes.  And after that everyone simply repeated what Merriman Smith said, even if they hadn't heard the news reports. They all lost their minds and became unable to recall that number of shots that acctually occurred.

Over 40 eyewitness accounts of just two shots and another 30 to 40 eyewitness accounts of a second shot head shot.

So let's see who you think they are.  Can you not give us a specific number rather than an estimate?

Only two of the three shells were found to have been fired in the rifle. Evidence of just two bullets.

No. The FBI said that all three shells had been fired in the MC. See: Frazier, 3H416:

"Mr. FRAZIER. I am sorry-yes, 543, 544, and 545. These three cartridge
cases were placed one at a time on the comparison microscope, and the surfaces
having the breech-face marks or the bolt marks were compared with those on the
test cartridge cases, Exhibit 557. As a result of comparing the pattern of
microscopic markings on the test cartridge cases and those marks on Exhibits
543, 544, and 545, both of the face of the bolt and the firing pin, I concluded
that these three had been flred in this particular weapon."

How would CE543 and the other shells havet a bolt-face impression if they had not recoiled back against the bolt face from gunpowder exploding and driving a bullet from the chamber and down the barrel?

FBI determined cycle time of the carcano was 2.3 seconds leaving only an even cadence of shots possible.

Or, the first shot occurred more than a second earlier than 225 making the shot spacing 4:2.3

First shot Z220+, second shot Z312, end of story.

The first shot was fired while the limo was between where Jean Newman was standing and the Chisms who were located at the corner of the Stemmons Freeway sign. The first shot occurred directly in front of Calvery, Hicks, Reed, and Westbrook, the secretaries from the TSBD, who were interviewed by the FBI in February and March of 1964.

Calvary, Hicks, Reed and Westbrook were standing opposite JFK between z215-225. Westbrook was opposite JFK at z225.

Both the Chisms and Jean Newman stated there was just two shots. The secretaries never were asked. Woodward places the first shot after Z204 and JBC places the first shot when he is adjacent to the Chisms.

John Chism :  "And just as he got just about in front of me, he turned and waved at the crowd on this side of the street, the right side; at this point I heard what sounded like one shot,"

Yes, he definitely was sure he heard only two shots: "As it passed in front of him he heard at least two shots and possibly three but no more." (FBI statement 18Dec63, 24H525)

Jean Newman : "The motorcade had just passed me when I heard that I thought was a firecracker at first, and the President had just passed me, because after he had just passed, there was a loud report"


Gloria Calvery : "The car he was in was almost directly in front of where I was Standing when I heard the first shot."

 Karan Hicks : "The car he was in was almost directly in front of where I was standing when I heard the first explosion. I did not immediately recognize this sound as a gunshot"

Karen Westbrook :  "The car he was in was almost directly  in front of where I was standing when I heard the first explosion. I did not immediately recognize this sound as a gun shot ."

All said that the first shot occurred just before the car that JFK was in passed by them. So it was sometime before z215 if the car, let alone JFK, was not yet opposite where they were standing.

Woodward said the earsplitting noise happened after JFK turned forward and not before.  JFK does not turn forward until Z204+

Mary Woodward
"After acknowledging our cheers, he [JFK] faced forward again and suddenly there was a horrible, ear-splitting noise coming from behind us and a little to the right.

========================================================

The only children on the right side of the street during the shooting was first the Chisms and then the Newmans.

Mr. SPECTER. When you turned to your right. Governor Connally, immediately after you heard the first shot. what did you see on that occasion?
Governor CONNALLY. Nothing of any significance except just people out on the grass slope. I didn't see anything that was out of the ordinary, just saw men, women, and children.

Gov. Connally said he turned to look at JFK after the first shot and before he was hit in the back. He felt the impact of the second shot and it was enough after the first shot that he had time to recognize it as a rifle shot and realize an assassination was unfolding and to turn around to check on JFK.  So you cannot use Connally as a two shot witness.

[Jack Nessan]

Yes.  And after that everyone simply repeated what Merriman Smith said, even if they hadn't heard the news reports. They all lost their minds and became unable to recall that number of shots that acctually occurred.
So let's see who you think they are.  Can you not give us a specific number rather than an estimate?
No. The FBI said that all three shells had been fired in the MC. See: Frazier, 3H416:

"Mr. FRAZIER. I am sorry-yes, 543, 544, and 545. These three cartridge
cases were placed one at a time on the comparison microscope, and the surfaces
having the breech-face marks or the bolt marks were compared with those on the
test cartridge cases, Exhibit 557. As a result of comparing the pattern of
microscopic markings on the test cartridge cases and those marks on Exhibits
543, 544, and 545, both of the face of the bolt and the firing pin, I concluded
that these three had been flred in this particular weapon."

How would CE543 and the other shells havet a bolt-face impression if they had not recoiled back against the bolt face from gunpowder exploding and driving a bullet from the chamber and down the barrel?
Or, the first shot occurred more than a second earlier than 225 making the shot spacing 4:2.3
Calvary, Hicks, Reed and Westbrook were standing opposite JFK between z215-225. Westbrook was opposite JFK at z225.
Yes, he definitely was sure he heard only two shots: "As it passed in front of him he heard at least two shots and possibly three but no more." (FBI statement 18Dec63, 24H525)
 All said that the first shot occurred just before the car that JFK was in passed by them. So it was sometime before z215 if the car, let alone JFK, was not yet opposite where they were standing.Gov. Connally said he turned to look at JFK after the first shot and before he was hit in the back. He felt the impact of the second shot and it was enough after the first shot that he had time to recognize it as a rifle shot and realize an assassination was unfolding and to turn around to check on JFK.  So you cannot use Connally as a two shot witness.

This is actually pathetic.

Chism. ---Great example of a witness being influenced by the media reporting. The amazing part is time and time again with these witnesses changing their statements and adding a shot and you still don't get it at all.

11/22 two shots. 12/18 a possible third shot added.

 Do you not understand what the WC and HSCA committees meant by media influence? Do you actually think they included the language in their conclusions, about the media influencing the witnesses into inflating the number of shots, for grins and giggles?

---------------------------------

Frazier. First Nicol was your go to guy. Now it is Frazier?  A little bit phony?

It did not take you long to give up on Nicol. It probably was the part where Nicol was testifying about the exact same thing only Eisenberg asked Nicol about dryfiring and he agreed. Nobody took the time to ask Frazier about dryfiring or it would have been the same result.

-----------------------------

JBC, one more time to rehash what JBC thought as compared to what everyone around him thought. Maybe it is time for you to figure it out.

You ignore the fact that the five people around him all state there was two shots. His own recollection of there being only two shots and his reaction to being shot indicate he was hit by the first shot. Ignore Jackie and Nellie stating he was hit by the same shot as hit JFK.

You completely ignore the part where JBC thought he was wounded by a second shot he never heard at Z235. A direct contradiction to this oddball theory you are constantly promoting. That would put the first shot at Z190 or earlier. That would be a direct contradiction to your assessment that JFK would not continue to smile and wave after having been struck in the throat by a bullet.

The biggest contradiction to your bizarre theory would be that JBC being wounded at Z235 would be the shot pattern you are always promoting of the last two shots being closer together is now no longer possible. The first two would now be closer together. A complete reversal of your theory because you are certain JBC was wounded by a separate shot and JBC believed it was at Z235. Maybe it would be better to believe the other five witnesses, in or on the car, that there was only two shots.

If you are not able to figure it out is very obvious there is nothing I can do to help you. Good luck with it.

[Andrew Mason]

This is actually pathetic.

Chism. ---Great example of a witness being influenced by the media reporting. The amazing part is time and time again with these witnesses changing their statements and adding a shot and you still don't get it at all.

11/22 two shots. 12/18 a possible third shot added.

 Do you not understand what the WC and HSCA committees meant by media influence? Do you actually think they included the language in their conclusions, about the media influencing the witnesses into inflating the number of shots, for grins and giggles?

The best you can say about Chism is that he was not sure whether there were two or three shots.

It is a bit of a stretch to assume that all 132 witnesses who said there were exactly three shots, many describing the shot pattern, were all influenced by the media reports of three shots.  First of all, the witnesses who were deposed on 22Nov63 at the Dallas Police headquarters would not have had an opportunity to receive detailed media reports.  Second, there were no media reports that I am aware of that provided any details of the shot pattern.

Here is a clip of Jay Watson of WFAA TV interviewing William Newman. Mr. Newman recalled hearing only two shots.  He was asked by Jay Watson about hearing a third shot at about 1:00 of this clip:

Newman: I didn't hear a third... I don't recall a third shot.  There may have been. We, my family hit the ground and I don't recall a third shot.
Watson:  I heard three. I know that.
Newman: Well.... I don't recall a third shot, there may have been."

Even when Watson stated that he was there and he heard three shots, Newman does not change his recollection.

William Newman was not even influenced by his wife, Gayle's, clear recollection of 3 shots - the first causing JFK to react, the second causing Gov. Connally to grab his stomach and fall back on his wife and the third striking JFK in the head.  See this clip beginning at 2:30:

Frazier. First Nicol was your go to guy. Now it is Frazier?  A little bit phony?

It did not take you long to give up on Nicol. It probably was the part where Nicol was testifying about the exact same thing only Eisenberg asked Nicol about dryfiring and he agreed. Nobody took the time to ask Frazier about dryfiring or it would have been the same result.

Nicol was clear that his conclusion that all three shells had been fired in the MC was based not only on the firing pin impressions but also on the breech-block markings as well as the ejector and extractor marks (3H505):

Mr. EISENBERG. And what was your conclusion?
Mr. NICOL. Based upon the similarity of the firing-pin impressions and the
breech-block markings, as well as ejector and extractor marks, it is my opinion
that all three of the exhibits, 545, 543, and 544, were fired in the same weapon
as fired Exhibit 557.

Nicol also provided the microscope views of the breech-face impressions (CE619-621). The breech-face impressions are not possible from dry-firing.  Nicol also said that CE543 had been put through the load/unload sequence 3 times because of the ejector and extractor marks on it (3H509):

"Mr. NICOL. ...  Associated with this is another mark that occurs on all three of the positions, however not in any particular relationship to the group of lines, and perhaps not as definitive. And it was on the basis of the match of these patterns that I would conclude that this cartridge had been introduced into a chamber at least three times prior to its final firing. So that this would represent, you might say, a practice or dry-run loading the gun and unloading it for purpose of either determining its-how it functions, or whether it was in proper function, or just for practice."

You ignore the fact that the five people around him all state there was two shots. His own recollection of there being only two shots and his reaction to being shot indicate he was hit by the first shot. Ignore Jackie and Nellie stating he was hit by the same shot as hit JFK.

I don't know who you are referring to.  The people closest were Jackie, Gov. Connally, Nellie Connally, SA Greer and SAIC Kellerman.

Jackie Kennedy.  This from her WC testimony (5H180):
  Mr. RANKIN. Do you have any recollection of whether there were one or more shots?
Mrs. KENNEDY. Well, there must have been two because the one that made me turn around was Governor Connally yelling. And it used to confuse me because first I remembered there were three and I used to think my husband didn’t make any sound when he was shot. And Governor Connally screamed.

Gov. Connally:  3 shots.  He heard the first and did not feel it in his back.  He recognized it as a shot, realized that an assassination was unfolding and turned to see how JFK was before he felt the impact of the second shot.  He heard and felt the effects of the third.

Nellie Connally: 3 shots. First hit JFK and he reacted. Second hit her Husband. She heard and felt the effect of the third.

William Greer: 3 shots.  He turned immediately after the second and saw JBC falling back.  He turned around to the front and then back again when the third shot hit.

Roy Kellerman:  (18H724-5): "I turned around to find out what happened when two additional shots rang out, and the President slumped into Mrs. Kennedy's lap and Governor Connally fell into Mrs. Connally's lap."   It was also reported in this FBI report of 22Nov63 that Kellerman said as follows: "He stated he distinctly heard three shots. He advised he did not see the Governor get hit, nor did he observe the second bullet hit the President."
 
Those are the five witnesses.  All five reported (only initially, in the case of Jackie) observing 3 shots. At least two (Connallys) reported that all three struck in the car and no one said the three did not all strike in the car.

You completely ignore the part where JBC thought he was wounded by a second shot he never heard at Z235. A direct contradiction to this oddball theory you are constantly promoting. That would put the first shot at Z190 or earlier. That would be a direct contradiction to your assessment that JFK would not continue to smile and wave after having been struck in the throat by a bullet.

That is true.  Both Connallys thought that the second shot struck JBC around z235 after looking at the frames of the zfilm.  However, Nellie told Dr. Shires a few hours after the events that JBC was turned around to the right when hit.  All the Connallys were doing is looking at the frames and trying to figure out when it looked like he had been hit in the chest. 

The biggest contradiction to your bizarre theory would be that JBC being wounded at Z235 would be the shot pattern you are always promoting of the last two shots being closer together is now no longer possible. The first two would now be closer together. A complete reversal of your theory because you are certain JBC was wounded by a separate shot and JBC believed it was at Z235. Maybe it would be better to believe the other five witnesses, in or on the car, that there was only two shots.

If you are not able to figure it out is very obvious there is nothing I can do to help you. Good luck with it.

When did I ever suggest that JBC was hit in the chest at z235.  I have always maintained he was shot just after z270, likely between z271 and z272.

[Jack Nessan]

The best you can say about Chism is that he was not sure whether there were two or three shots.

It is a bit of a stretch to assume that all 132 witnesses who said there were exactly three shots, many describing the shot pattern, were all influenced by the media reports of three shots.  First of all, the witnesses who were deposed on 22Nov63 at the Dallas Police headquarters would not have had an opportunity to receive detailed media reports.  Second, there were no media reports that I am aware of that provided any details of the shot pattern.

Here is a clip of Jay Watson of WFAA TV interviewing William Newman. Mr. Newman recalled hearing only two shots.  He was asked by Jay Watson about hearing a third shot at about 1:00 of this clip:

Newman: I didn't hear a third... I don't recall a third shot.  There may have been. We, my family hit the ground and I don't recall a third shot.
Watson:  I heard three. I know that.
Newman: Well.... I don't recall a third shot, there may have been."

Even when Watson stated that he was there and he heard three shots, Newman does not change his recollection.

William Newman was not even influenced by his wife, Gayle's, clear recollection of 3 shots - the first causing JFK to react, the second causing Gov. Connally to grab his stomach and fall back on his wife and the third striking JFK in the head.  See this clip beginning at 2:30:

Nicol was clear that his conclusion that all three shells had been fired in the MC was based not only on the firing pin impressions but also on the breech-block markings as well as the ejector and extractor marks (3H505):

Mr. EISENBERG. And what was your conclusion?
Mr. NICOL. Based upon the similarity of the firing-pin impressions and the
breech-block markings, as well as ejector and extractor marks, it is my opinion
that all three of the exhibits, 545, 543, and 544, were fired in the same weapon
as fired Exhibit 557.

Nicol also provided the microscope views of the breech-face impressions (CE619-621). The breech-face impressions are not possible from dry-firing.  Nicol also said that CE543 had been put through the load/unload sequence 3 times because of the ejector and extractor marks on it (3H509):

"Mr. NICOL. ...  Associated with this is another mark that occurs on all three of the positions, however not in any particular relationship to the group of lines, and perhaps not as definitive. And it was on the basis of the match of these patterns that I would conclude that this cartridge had been introduced into a chamber at least three times prior to its final firing. So that this would represent, you might say, a practice or dry-run loading the gun and unloading it for purpose of either determining its-how it functions, or whether it was in proper function, or just for practice."
I don't know who you are referring to.  The people closest were Jackie, Gov. Connally, Nellie Connally, SA Greer and SAIC Kellerman.

Jackie Kennedy.  This from her WC testimony (5H180):
  Mr. RANKIN. Do you have any recollection of whether there were one or more shots?
Mrs. KENNEDY. Well, there must have been two because the one that made me turn around was Governor Connally yelling. And it used to confuse me because first I remembered there were three and I used to think my husband didn’t make any sound when he was shot. And Governor Connally screamed.

Gov. Connally:  3 shots.  He heard the first and did not feel it in his back.  He recognized it as a shot, realized that an assassination was unfolding and turned to see how JFK was before he felt the impact of the second shot.  He heard and felt the effects of the third.

Nellie Connally: 3 shots. First hit JFK and he reacted. Second hit her Husband. She heard and felt the effect of the third.

William Greer: 3 shots.  He turned immediately after the second and saw JBC falling back.  He turned around to the front and then back again when the third shot hit.

Roy Kellerman:  (18H724-5): "I turned around to find out what happened when two additional shots rang out, and the President slumped into Mrs. Kennedy's lap and Governor Connally fell into Mrs. Connally's lap."   It was also reported in this FBI report of 22Nov63 that Kellerman said as follows: "He stated he distinctly heard three shots. He advised he did not see the Governor get hit, nor did he observe the second bullet hit the President."
 
Those are the five witnesses.  All five reported (only initially, in the case of Jackie) observing 3 shots. At least two (Connallys) reported that all three struck in the car and no one said the three did not all strike in the car.
 That is true.  Both Connallys thought that the second shot struck JBC around z235 after looking at the frames of the zfilm.  However, Nellie told Dr. Shires a few hours after the events that JBC was turned around to the right when hit.  All the Connallys were doing is looking at the frames and trying to figure out when it looked like he had been hit in the chest. 
When did I ever suggest that JBC was hit in the chest at z235.  I have always maintained he was shot just after z270, likely between z271 and z272.

All that is required by you is a little actual research. These witnesses are all great examples of the medias influence. All these witnesses are two shot witnesses. Maybe do not edit their statements to get your desired result and quote what they actually stated.

JBC and Nellie now are considered reliable witnesses right up until they completely contradict this bizarre fantasy theory. The reason there is not any supporting witness statements or evidence of any kind to a shot at Z272 is because there wasn't one. Don't let that stop you though.

Actually this is unbelievable, about 10 years after having this very issue of JBC stating he was shot at Z235 pointed out to you, and you stating he really was wrong and he was shot at Z272, and you haven't been able to come up with a better conclusion than to keep repeating JBC and Nellie knew exactly what was going on except when he was shot?

 How about believe the other people in and around the car, he was struck by the first shot and there was a total of only two shots fired. You have already proven there was never three shots fired.

[Dan O'meara]

All that is required by you is a little actual research. These witnesses are all great examples of the medias influence. All these witnesses are two shot witnesses. Maybe do not edit their statements to get your desired result and quote what they actually stated.

JBC and Nellie now are considered reliable witnesses right up until they completely contradict this bizarre fantasy theory. The reason there is not any supporting witness statements or evidence of any kind to a shot at Z272 is because there wasn't one. Don't let that stop you though.

Actually this is unbelievable, about 10 years after having this very issue of JBC stating he was shot at Z235 pointed out to you, and you stating he really was wrong and he was shot at Z272, and you haven't been able to come up with a better conclusion than to keep repeating JBC and Nellie knew exactly what was going on except when he was shot?

 How about believe the other people in and around the car, he was struck by the first shot and there was a total of only two shots fired. You have already proven there was never three shots fired.

What makes you think the Connally's are two shot witnesses?

[Jack Nessan]

What makes you think the Connally's are two shot witnesses?

Gov Connally's own words about as to what he stated when he was shot as referenced by Nellie and Jackie. Nellie's own statement, made through Julian Read, immediately after the assassination. Leaves no doubt about what occurred.


Amazing how 11 and 12 year old children can be taught in hunter safety about being careful about selecting a shot because one bullet can pass through two animals, but grown men cannot accept the reality of SBT on a forum about the JFK assassination. Especially given the bullet passing through JFK had no where else to go but into JBC.

Greer is a two shot witness right up until his testimony to the WC. Kellerman states the car accelerates after the second shot and before a third.

[Andrew Mason]

All that is required by you is a little actual research. These witnesses are all great examples of the medias influence. All these witnesses are two shot witnesses. Maybe do not edit their statements to get your desired result and quote what they actually stated.

I have given you Jackie and Kellerman's quotes. If you think I have edited them or selected something out of context, feel free to provide your comments.  Here is what Greer testified before the WC (2H118):

Mr. GREER I know there was three that I heard-three. But I cannot remember any more than probably three. I know there was three anyway that I heard.
Mr. SPECTER. Do you have an independent recollection at this moment of having heard three shots at that time?
Mr. GREER I knew that after I heard the second one, that is when I looked over my shoulder, and I was conscious that there was something wrong, because that is when I saw Governor Connally. And when I turned around again, to the best of my recollection there was another one, right immediately after.

And Greer's recollection fits the zfilm exactly.  He turns around for the first time at z278-282 to z292 during which time JBC is starting to fall back onto Nellie.  He turns the second time from z304-318 during which the head shot occurs.

Nellie Connally heard and experienced three distinct shots: (4H149):
Mr. SPECTER. How many did you hear in all?
Mrs. CONNALLY. I heard three.

Governor Connally heard two and felt the impact another distinct shot (4H136):
"It is not conceivable to me that I could hare been hit by the first bullet, and then I felt the blow from something which was obviously a bullet, which I assumed was a bullet, and I never heard the second shot, didn’t hear it. I didn’t hear but two shots. I think I heard the first shot and the third shot. " 

JBC and Nellie now are considered reliable witnesses right up until they completely contradict this bizarre fantasy theory. The reason there is not any supporting witness statements or evidence of any kind to a shot at Z272 is because there wasn't one. Don't let that stop you though.

Witnesses may be reliable on some things and not reliable on other things.  Recollection of event that they observed is easier to get correct than trying to reconstruct something they did not observe ie. what JBC looked like from Zapruder's position when he was hit.

Actually this is unbelievable, about 10 years after having this very issue of JBC stating he was shot at Z235 pointed out to you, and you stating he really was wrong and he was shot at Z272, and you haven't been able to come up with a better conclusion than to keep repeating JBC and Nellie knew exactly what was going on except when he was shot?

The conclusion that there was a shot around z272 is based on evidence that is independent of the Connallys. It is based on the evidence that:

1. the first shot struck JFK in the neck.
2. the second shot struck JBC in the back/armpit.
3. the third shot struck JFK in the head
4. the shot pattern was 1........2...3

If one accepts that evidence, and there is abundant independent evidence to support each point, then a shot after the midpoint between the first and last shots is the only conclusion that one can reach.  It is not a theory. It is simply a conclusion that has to be reached if the evidence is accepted.  You just don't accept all the evidence.  That's fine. So criticize my acceptance of the evidence if you wish. But you can't criticize the conclusion that inevitably follows from that evidence.

[Dan O'meara]

I have given you Jackie and Kellerman's quotes. If you think I have edited them or selected something out of context, feel free to provide your comments.  Here is what Greer testified before the WC (2H118):

Mr. GREER I know there was three that I heard-three. But I cannot remember any more than probably three. I know there was three anyway that I heard.
Mr. SPECTER. Do you have an independent recollection at this moment of having heard three shots at that time?
Mr. GREER I knew that after I heard the second one, that is when I looked over my shoulder, and I was conscious that there was something wrong, because that is when I saw Governor Connally. And when I turned around again, to the best of my recollection there was another one, right immediately after.

And Greer's recollection fits the zfilm exactly.  He turns around for the first time at z278-282 to z292 during which time JBC is starting to fall back onto Nellie.  He turns the second time from z304-318 during which the head shot occurs.

Nellie Connally heard and experienced three distinct shots: (4H149):
Mr. SPECTER. How many did you hear in all?
Mrs. CONNALLY. I heard three.

Governor Connally heard two and felt the impact another distinct shot (4H136):
"It is not conceivable to me that I could hare been hit by the first bullet, and then I felt the blow from something which was obviously a bullet, which I assumed was a bullet, and I never heard the second shot, didn’t hear it. I didn’t hear but two shots. I think I heard the first shot and the third shot. " 
Witnesses may be reliable on some things and not reliable on other things.  Recollection of event that they observed is easier to get correct than trying to reconstruct something they did not observe ie. what JBC looked like from Zapruder's position when he was hit.
The conclusion that there was a shot around z272 is based on evidence that is independent of the Connallys. It is based on the evidence that:

1. the first shot struck JFK in the neck.
2. the second shot struck JBC in the back/armpit.
3. the third shot struck JFK in the head
4. the shot pattern was 1........2...3

If one accepts that evidence, and there is abundant independent evidence to support each point, then a shot after the midpoint between the first and last shots is the only conclusion that one can reach.  It is not a theory. It is simply a conclusion that has to be reached if the evidence is accepted.  You just don't accept all the evidence.  That's fine. So criticize my acceptance of the evidence if you wish. But you can't criticize the conclusion that inevitably follows from that evidence.

"...there is abundant independent evidence to support each point..."

Apart from a couple of sketchy interpretations of cherry-picked witnesses there is no evidence for point 2 and an overwhelming abundance of evidence against a shot at z272.

There is conflicting evidence for point 3.