The First Shot

[Dan O'meara]

JFK was in the clear at this point as shown in the Secret Service film from early December 1963:


If one looks at the position of the car in Willis #5:

it is about 1-1.5 feet right of the left lane marker.  A 1961 Lincoln Continental was 78.6 inches wide and the lanes were 12' or 144" wide. That leaves about 4-4.5 feet of lane to the right side.  I would suggest that the above photo from the Secret Service film has an accurate position of the car in the lane at that point. 
There are two big differences between the May 1964 and the December 1963 re-enactments.  The main difference is the tree foliage.  The other difference is the car height and the vertical position of JFK.  Both were more accurately depicted in the earlier reenactment.  The foliage is fuller and denser in 1964 than it was at the time of the assassination.  The photographers" (Betzner and Willis) provide z186 and z202 brackets for the time of the first shot.  The SS reenactment shows that the first shot at about z195 is consistent with those brackets. 

But even the May 1964 reenactment shows JFK to be clear of the tree (despite the longer and denser foliage) at z207:

In fact, the entire trunk of the car behind the JFK stand-in is visible.The first shot JFK neck to JBC thigh "fantasy" is a much better fit to the trajectory, witness evidence, shot spacing evidence and the condition of CE399 than is the CE399 second shot SBT fantasy.

The photographers" (Betzner and Willis) provide z186 and z202 brackets for the time of the first shot.

Willis does not provide a bracket for the first shot.
He was financially incentivised to convince people he had captured the moment of the first shot. He set up Phil Willis Enterprises with the express purpose of financially gaining from the assassination. He concocted a story about reacting to the first shot as a way to validate his photo and make it more valuable. His testimony regarding reacting to a first shot is undermined by his ulterior motive. As such, your main evidence for a shot before z202 disappears.

The first shot JFK neck to JBC thigh "fantasy" is a much better fit to the trajectory, witness evidence, shot spacing evidence and the condition of CE399 than is the CE399 second shot SBT fantasy.

As they are both fantasies it doesn't really matter which is the "much better fit".

[Andrew Mason]

The photographers" (Betzner and Willis) provide z186 and z202 brackets for the time of the first shot.

Willis does not provide a bracket for the first shot.
He was financially incentivised to convince people he had captured the moment of the first shot. He set up Phil Willis Enterprises with the express purpose of financially gaining from the assassination. He concocted a story about reacting to the first shot as a way to validate his photo and make it more valuable. His testimony regarding reacting to a first shot is undermined by his ulterior motive. As such, your main evidence for a shot before z202 disappears.

The first shot JFK neck to JBC thigh "fantasy" is a much better fit to the trajectory, witness evidence, shot spacing evidence and the condition of CE399 than is the CE399 second shot SBT fantasy.

As they are both fantasies it doesn't really matter which is the "much better fit".

Willis provided the after-bracket. You just don't accept his evidence. That's fine.  I do.  The reason I accept it is that it fits with the rest of the evidence and there is no evidence-based reason to reject it.  In particular it fits with Linda Willis' recollection and Rosemary Willis' head turn at z204-207:


Do you think that he paid Rosemary to do that? or that he paid Linda to say that? Or TE Moore to say that it occurred by the time JFK had reached the Thornton sign?  etc....

[Zeon Mason]

Ok, if a shot at z205-207 is plausible because it’s ALMOST clear of any significant foliage of the tree that would obstruct/ deflect the shot,  then what’s the reason for the complete miss that did not even strike any part of the JFK limo let alone hit JFK or anyone else in the limo?

If the theoretically 1st shot at Z207 DID hit JFK, then did  it go thru and also hit Connally? Or did ALL shots hit,  2 hitting JFK and 1 hitting Connally?

The shot spread time from Z205-Z313 is approx 5.8 secs which is still a bit too close to be probable for an MC bolt action rifle to be the ONLY weapon used.

A 3 shots hit scenario, including 1 of them striking the head,  within a 5.8 sec time frame, is a feat which to date has NOT been demonstrated by any trial reenactment by any person using an MC 6.5mm bolt action rifle

[Dan O'meara]

Willis provided the after-bracket. You just don't accept his evidence. That's fine.  I do.  The reason I accept it is that it fits with the rest of the evidence and there is no evidence-based reason to reject it.  In particular it fits with Linda Willis' recollection and Rosemary Willis' head turn at z204-207:

Without Willis you have almost zero evidence for a shot before z200. You accept it because you have to.
Because you have the last shot as the headshot and the first shot as the one that causes JFK's hands to move towards his throat you have no option but to believe the first shot must have been somewhere between z190-z200. As Zeon pointed out, you simply don't have enough time for the three shots otherwise.
It's the worst kind of research - you have to make the evidence fit, so you grab on to the few crumbs you can find in the copious testimonial record and ignore everything else.
Willis had a financial incentive to have people believe he had taken a photo of the first shot. The truth is the camera was probably still held up in front of his face when the first shot happened one second later. Just one second after his picture was taken the actual shot happened!
His evidence should be treated with the utmost caution as he had an ulterior motive for claiming he took the pic as a reaction to the first shot - it made his picture more valuable.
But you grab on to him with both hands because you have almost nothing else.

I have presented a wealth of evidence that refutes a shot before z222/223. Unlike you I don't need to grab onto anything I can find.
You have the assassin firing through the oak tree - you will never get around that.

Do you think that he paid Rosemary to do that? or that he paid Linda to say that? Or TE Moore to say that it occurred by the time JFK had reached the Thornton sign?  etc....

Did Daddy Willis pay his daughters to go along with his money-making scheme? I doubt it.
 
"In particular it fits with Linda Willis' recollection..."

In another post you wrote:

"Linda Willis said that JFK was between her and the Stemmons sign when the first shot occurred.  She was standing behind and just to the left of Phil Willis who took this photo at z202 when JFK had just passed between him and the Stemmons sign:"

Linda's got a really good memory of the moment of the first shot, she had the presence of mind to note where her father was and where she was in relation to him, and where JFK was in relation herself and a recognisable stationary object.
It's a really impressive recall. It's almost as if she had a picture of it.....hold on a second:



She did have a picture of it!
And little Rosemary...come on, Andrew. That's been dealt with about a dozen times on this thread. Are you really that desperate?
Of course you are.

And good old T E Moore, stood hundreds of feet away directly behind the motorcade as it drove down Elm, with all those cars in between himself and the limo and no way of accurately gauging where the limo was in respect to the Thornton sign. Weak sauce indeed.
Why not use eyewitness testimony from someone who was really close up to the limo at the time of the first shot. Mary Woodward, perhaps, and her multiple statements that the first shot occurred after the President had turned forward after waving at her and her friends.
Yet more evidence refuting a shot before z200.

I know by now you will simply plow on with your tatty collection of dubious eyewitness accounts because you have no choice.
It is clear that you have presented all the arguments you have and they have all been dealt with in this thread.
If you have something new, let's hear it.

[Jack Nessan]

Without Willis you have almost zero evidence for a shot before z200. You accept it because you have to.
Because you have the last shot as the headshot and the first shot as the one that causes JFK's hands to move towards his throat you have no option but to believe the first shot must have been somewhere between z190-z200. As Zeon pointed out, you simply don't have enough time for the three shots otherwise.
It's the worst kind of research - you have to make the evidence fit, so you grab on to the few crumbs you can find in the copious testimonial record and ignore everything else.
Willis had a financial incentive to have people believe he had taken a photo of the first shot. The truth is the camera was probably still held up in front of his face when the first shot happened one second later. Just one second after his picture was taken the actual shot happened!
His evidence should be treated with the utmost caution as he had an ulterior motive for claiming he took the pic as a reaction to the first shot - it made his picture more valuable.
But you grab on to him with both hands because you have almost nothing else.

I have presented a wealth of evidence that refutes a shot before z222/223. Unlike you I don't need to grab onto anything I can find.
You have the assassin firing through the oak tree - you will never get around that.

Did Daddy Willis pay his daughters to go along with his money-making scheme? I doubt it.
 
"In particular it fits with Linda Willis' recollection..."

In another post you wrote:

"Linda Willis said that JFK was between her and the Stemmons sign when the first shot occurred.  She was standing behind and just to the left of Phil Willis who took this photo at z202 when JFK had just passed between him and the Stemmons sign:"

Linda's got a really good memory of the moment of the first shot, she had the presence of mind to note where her father was and where she was in relation to him, and where JFK was in relation herself and a recognisable stationary object.
It's a really impressive recall. It's almost as if she had a picture of it.....hold on a second:



She did have a picture of it!
And little Rosemary...come on, Andrew. That's been dealt with about a dozen times on this thread. Are you really that desperate?
Of course you are.

And good old T E Moore, stood hundreds of feet away directly behind the motorcade as it drove down Elm, with all those cars in between himself and the limo and no way of accurately gauging where the limo was in respect to the Thornton sign. Weak sauce indeed.
Why not use eyewitness testimony from someone who was really close up to the limo at the time of the first shot. Mary Woodward, perhaps, and her multiple statements that the first shot occurred after the President had turned forward after waving at her and her friends.
Yet more evidence refuting a shot before z200.

I know by now you will simply plow on with your tatty collection of dubious eyewitness accounts because you have no choice.
It is clear that you have presented all the arguments you have and they have all been dealt with in this thread.
If you have something new, let's hear it.

Did Daddy Willis pay his daughters to go along with his money-making scheme? I doubt it.

The "Willis Family Testimony" was a discussed consensus of the group. Unfortunately for Andrew's theory, the mother Marilyn places the headshot as the second shot. Andrew always neglects to post this information.

From Pat Speer's website:

Marilyn Willis was the mother of the Willis girls and the wife of Phil Willis. She watched the shooting from the wall back behind the witnesses in the image above. (6-19-64 FBI report, CD1245 p. 44-45) “Mrs. Willis advised when the motorcade passed on Elm Street in front of where she was standing she heard a noise that sounded like a firecracker or a backfire. A few seconds following this she stated she heard another report and saw the top of President Kennedy’s head “blow off and ringed by a red halo.” She stated she believes she heard another shot following this.” (11-29-66 Interview with Josiah Thompson, as recounted in Six Seconds in Dallas, 1967) (When asked if she felt Kennedy was hit by the first shot, Connally the second, and Kennedy the third) "Yes, that's right." (When asked if she'd felt this right away) "Oh, yes, from the very first thing." (When asked if it seemed clear) "That's right. The Warren Commission didn't seek us out and finally Linda and I were interviewed a long time later. But at home we all agreed. We stayed home there for a week just glued to the television. And we agreed all along as to how and what happened." (When asked again about when they all agreed) "The night that it happened."

[Andrew Mason]

Ok, if a shot at z205-207 is plausible because it’s ALMOST clear of any significant foliage of the tree that would obstruct/ deflect the shot,  then what’s the reason for the complete miss that did not even strike any part of the JFK limo let alone hit JFK or anyone else in the limo?

My point is that on November 22, 1963 JFK was visible from the SN well before z205.  I put the first shot around z195 based on evidence, some of which is: 

• Hugh Betzner said the first was just after he took his z186 photo
• Occupants of the VP car said they had just completed the turn when the first shot occurred. It has not quite completed the turn at z180 when last seen in the zfilm
• Jack Ready begins his right turn at z199 when he removes his hand from the hand hold. He said he immediately turned around to the right toward the source of the sound.
• Phil Willis said he took his #5 photo immediately after the first shot; that he pressed the shutter as a reflex to hearing the sound. It was taken at z202.
• Linda Willis said that JFK was between her and the Stemmons sign when the first shot occurred.  JFK was just past the left edge of the Stemmons sign in Phil Willis' #5 photo (at z202) and Linda was behind and a bit to his left.
• Rosemary Willis turns her head sharply toward the TSBD at z204-207.  She said she turned to look back at the TSBD when she heard the first shot and saw birds flying from the TSBD roof.
• 40+ witnesses said that there was a longer pause between the first and second than between the second and third.
• SA Greer said he turned immediately after the second shot and saw JBC falling. His first turn is at z280.
• The Connallys said he was hit on the second shot and Nellie never looked to the back afterward.  She is looking back until z270.
• The last shot was at z313.

Put that all together and it is a reasonable conclusion that the first shot was just before z202, the second between z270 and z280, and the third at z312-313.

If the theoretically 1st shot at Z207 DID hit JFK, then did  it go thru and also hit Connally? Or did ALL shots hit,  2 hitting JFK and 1 hitting Connally?

According to the evidence, all shots hit either JFK, JBC or both.  Since the first bullet passed through JFK without hitting any bone and was travelling right to left, and since all the evidence indicates that JBC was hit in the back on the second shot, and since there is no evidence of the bullet striking the car, it is not unreasonable to conclude that the bullet struck JBC somewhere left of his right armpit.  He was turned to the right at z190-200.  The trajectory appears to be consistent with the bullet through JFK striking JBC in the left thigh:

The shot spread time from Z205-Z313 is approx 5.8 secs which is still a bit too close to be probable for an MC bolt action rifle to be the ONLY weapon used.

A 3 shots hit scenario, including 1 of them striking the head,  within a 5.8 sec time frame, is a feat which to date has NOT been demonstrated by any trial reenactment by any person using an MC 6.5mm bolt action rifle

I suggest the best fit with all the evidence is that the shots were very likely at: z195, z271, z313.  That spacing is: 4.18 seconds and 2.31 seconds for a total of 6.5 seconds to reload, aim, shoot, reload aim, shoot. after pressing the trigger for the first shot. The FBI tests with the MC showed that this was certainly possible with that rifle.  The shortest overall time (using the scope to sight) was 4.6 seconds with 2.3 seconds between shots. They said it might be a bit less if one had practiced with operating the bolt-action for that rifle as Oswald had.(Robert Frazier, 3H446).

[Andrew Mason]

Phew!
You had me worried there for a second.

You thought I had a stroke and you were worried. I appreciate the thought...

The mass of evidence I have presented in this thread confirm my original observation. That's it.
If the preponderance of evidence would have pointed elsewhere, then I would have a different point of view.
Unlike you, the evidence forms my opinion.

But you don't acknowledge the contrary evidence.  The only "evidence" that supports your view is that you think JFK and JBC are beginning their reactions to the first shot at about the same time. 

For you to suggest I have ignored any of these points is either profound memory loss or a downright lie.

Since the evidence from JBC is that he was NOT hit in the back by the first shot but recognized it as a rifle shot and turned around to check on JFK's condition, you seem to be awfully confident that his reaction and his right turn from z228-270 is to being hit in the back. What is the evidence that says he is wrong about that? Where have you acknowledged and dealt with this contrary evidence?

The Connally's evidence has been dealt with in minute detail in this thread in discussions that you yourself took part in.
The reliability of the Willis evidence has also been dealt with in this thread (and not just in the post you were responding to).
You really have no shame.

Reliability is not determined by pointing to a possible (I use that term lightly) motive.  You need evidence that he acted on that motive. 

As far as shame is concerned: you are the one suggesting, without a shred of evidence, that a World War II U.S. veteran and former member of the Texas legislature deliberately sacrificed his sterling reputation by lying under oath to the Warren Commission for an opportunity to make a few extra tourist dollars to try to enhance the value of his (already very important and valuable) photo.  And you think I am the one who should feel shame?

As I am convinced the bullet fragmented on contact with Connally's wrist, it can only have been a bullet fragment (or fragments) that caused Connally's thigh wound.

You may be convinced, but Dr. Gregory who examined the wound said it appeared to be made by the butt end of an intact missile (4 H 128).  Dr. Shires debrided the wound down to the region of the femur. (CE392 at 17 H 20) The direction of the wound was along the femur not across the thigh as a fragment from the right wrist would have travelled.

The windshield damage was caused by fragments from the headshot.
The unreliability of Greer's testimony has been demonstrated in Technicolor in this thread.

The unreliability of his testimony relates to when he said he slowed down and sped up. We can see in the zfilm that he did not speed up before he head shot. 

But we can see in the zfilm that he turned around to see JBC twice before the head shot, just as he said he did before the third and last shot. And that fits exactly with what Hickey and Powers said they observed. It also fits with Nellie's recollection that she looked at JFK and saw him clutching at his upper body before the second shot and did not look back after the second shot.  I am struggling to find any evidence at all that conflicts with a second shot at that time.

Tague was unsure whether it was the second or third shot. It was most likely caused by a bullet that missed it's target.

You seem to be ignoring Tague's testimony after that statement (7 H 555):

Mr. LIEBELER Do you have any idea which bullet might have made that mark?
Mr. TAGUE. I would guess it was either the second or third. I wouldn’t say definitely on which one.
Mr. LIEBELER . Did you hear any more shots after you felt yourself get hit in the face?
Mr. TAGUE. I believe I did.
Mr. LIEBELER. You think you did?
Mr. TAGUE. I believe I did.
Mr. LIEBELER. How many?
Mr. TAGUE. I believe that it was the second shot, so I heard the third shot afterwards.
Mr. LIEBELER. Did you hear three shots?
Mr. TAGUE. I heard three shots; yes sir. And I did notice the time on the
Hertz clock. It was 12:29.

Also, Tague was hit by a lead fragment of a bullet that deflected off the concrete curb.  The undamaged curb showed presence of lead and antimony but no copper (FBI report 21 H 476). 

Also, Greer said he sensed a "concussion" effect on the second shot but not on any other shot.  That dent in the windshield frame must have produced some kind of impact sound a few inches above his right ear:

[Andrew Mason]

The "Willis Family Testimony" was a discussed consensus of the group. Unfortunately for Andrew's theory, the mother Marilyn places the headshot as the second shot. Andrew always neglects to post this information.

From Pat Speer's website:

Marilyn Willis was the mother of the Willis girls and the wife of Phil Willis. She watched the shooting from the wall back behind the witnesses in the image above. (6-19-64 FBI report, CD1245 p. 44-45) “Mrs. Willis advised when the motorcade passed on Elm Street in front of where she was standing she heard a noise that sounded like a firecracker or a backfire. A few seconds following this she stated she heard another report and saw the top of President Kennedy’s head “blow off and ringed by a red halo.” She stated she believes she heard another shot following this.” (11-29-66 Interview with Josiah Thompson, as recounted in Six Seconds in Dallas, 1967) (When asked if she felt Kennedy was hit by the first shot, Connally the second, and Kennedy the third) "Yes, that's right." (When asked if she'd felt this right away) "Oh, yes, from the very first thing." (When asked if it seemed clear) "That's right. The Warren Commission didn't seek us out and finally Linda and I were interviewed a long time later. But at home we all agreed. We stayed home there for a week just glued to the television. And we agreed all along as to how and what happened." (When asked again about when they all agreed) "The night that it happened."

Some of those answers are attributed incorrectly to Mrs. Willis.  Here is a copy of the note from Thompson's book:


But your point is well taken.  For what it is worth, it appears that all members of the Willis family were convinced - either from what they had observed, or from being convinced by each other, or both - that all three shots struck in the car, that JFK was hit by the first and third and that JBC was hit by the second shot.