The First Shot

[Walt Cakebread]

Seconds before the motorcade enters Dealey Plaza, Roberts and Fischer saw a man in the SN window [who was apparently not Oswald].
Euins and Brennan report a man pointing a rifle from the SN window towards the limo at the time of the shots.
Other witnesses saw what appeared to be a rifle sticking out of the same window.
At this time Hank Norman is directly beneath the SN.
Norman reports hearing the shots coming from directly above him and hears the shells hitting the floor.
The first officers at the SN report seeing three shells on the floor in the SN.
Other than an actual video of the shots being taken, I'm not sure what further evidence could be offered to verify that three shots were fired from the SN.
However, as I've already stated, Mooney and Alyea report that Fritz picked up the shells and may well have pocketed them.
Deputy Sheriff Jack Faulkner, in his initial report, states that when Fritz arrived on the sixth floor he was given the shells.
Fritz also pocketed the round ejected from the MC.
As such, it is impossible to verify that the shells that were allegedly discovered in the SN are the same shells photographed by Studebaker or that they were the shells involved in the three shots taken from the SN.

You state there were originally two shells allegedly fired from the SN window.
WHAT PROOF DO YOU HAVE FOR THAT?

Proof??..... A very strong indicator that there were only two spent shells and one live round in evidence on the evening of 11/22/63 is the FACT that the FBI took photos of the evidence ....and the photos they took show only TWO spent shells...and one live round.   

[Dan O'meara]

Proof??..... A very strong indicator that there were only two spent shells and one live round in evidence on the evening of 11/22/63 is the FACT that the FBI took photos of the evidence ....and the photos they took show only TWO spent shells...and one live round.   

And what has this got to do with how many shells were discovered in the SN?
The answer to this question is that it has nothing to do with how many shells were originally discovered in the SN.
The initial reports of officers who were on the 6th floor when Mooney discovered the SN and the shells, explicitly state that there were three shells.
Tom Alyea, who was with Fritz when he arrived at the SN also reported three shells.
Three shells were originally discovered in the SN.
Your assertion that there were originally two shells is wrong - it's another Walt "fact".

Although none of this is anything to do with when the first shot was fired [the topic of this thread], it is part of the assumption I have based this thread on - that three, clearly audible shots were fired from the SN.
Three shells were originally discovered in the SN. Hank Norman, directly beneath the SN heard three shots being taken directly above him  and shells hittiing the floor.
Witnesses saw a man in the SN window pointing a rifle towards the Presidential limo at the same time Norman reports hears the shots being fired from above him [that is to say, he hears shots being fired from the same position the eye-witnesses see the man with the rifle].
Three shots - three shells.

The assumption I'm making is a sound one.
In this thread I have collected an overwhelming amount of evidence demonstrating the first shot occurred at z222/z223. It was the "throat shot" that caused JFK's hands to fly up towards his throat.
Knowing when the first shot happened doesn't throw any light on who took the shots and why, but I've always felt that such a fundamental piece of information relating to the assassination should be known, and not the subject of multiple, dubious theories.

[Michael T. Griffith]

The HSCA Photographic Evidence Panel (PEP) tore the thin scab of the festering wound of the first hit by admitting that the first hit came while the sixth-floor gunman's view was blocked by the oak tree. The PEP, to their great credit, admitted that the Zapruder film plainly and clearly shows that JFK starts to react to being shot by Z200 and that this shot was fired at or before Z190.

The PEP noted that at around Z200, Kennedy's movements suddenly freeze and his right hand abruptly stops in the middle of a waving motion. JFK's head rapidly moves from the right toward his wife on his left. JFK's hand not only stops suddenly in the middle of a wave, but it also drops to the chin or throat level in a fraction of a second and stays at that level until he disappears behind the freeway sign at Z207. Clearly, he's starting to reach for his throat.

At virtually the same instant, Jackie suddenly and rapidly starts to turn her to the right toward JFK. At Z207, Howard Brennan snaps his head to the right.

We now know that the Secret Service analysis of the Zapruder film, conducted with the aid of a surveyor in Dealey Plaza a few days after the assassination, concluded that Kennedy was first hit at around Z199.

And, there is a strong blur episode from Z189-197, indicating that Zapruder involuntarily reacted to the sound of a shot and proving that the shot was fired shortly before Z189.

PEP member William Hartmann noted that since Willis Slide 5 was snapped at Z202, this showed that the shot must have been fired at or shortly before Z190.

Of course, the problem with this Z186-190 first hit for the lone-gunman theory is that the sixth-floor gunman's view of JFK would have been blocked by the oak tree from Z166-Z210. Even the WC admitted that its supposed lone gunman would not have fired during this time, which is why the Commission claimed that the first hit did not occur until after Z210.

Reactions to Six Shots in the Zapruder Film
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nnp3Vch_KMOB_qufAhlQOCLTTS9jqNV0/view

And we can dismiss with a giggle the absurd idea that the alleged lone gunman missed the entire limousine with his first and closest shot. The limo was 6.5 feet wide and 21 feet long. It boggles the mind to think how the same guy who allegedly performed a shooting feat that Master-rated riflemen were unable to duplicate could have missed the entire gigantic limo with his first and easiest shot. Yet, this is exactly what many WC apologists now claim.

[Jack Nessan]

The HSCA Photographic Evidence Panel (PEP) tore the thin scab of the festering wound of the first hit by admitting that the first hit came while the sixth-floor gunman's view was blocked by the oak tree. The PEP, to their great credit, admitted that the Zapruder film plainly and clearly shows that JFK starts to react to being shot by Z200 and that this shot was fired at or before Z190.

The PEP noted that at around Z200, Kennedy's movements suddenly freeze and his right hand abruptly stops in the middle of a waving motion. JFK's head rapidly moves from the right toward his wife on his left. JFK's hand not only stops suddenly in the middle of a wave, but it also drops to the chin or throat level in a fraction of a second and stays at that level until he disappears behind the freeway sign at Z207. Clearly, he's starting to reach for his throat.

At virtually the same instant, Jackie suddenly and rapidly starts to turn her to the right toward JFK. At Z207, Howard Brennan snaps his head to the right.

We now know that the Secret Service analysis of the Zapruder film, conducted with the aid of a surveyor in Dealey Plaza a few days after the assassination, concluded that Kennedy was first hit at around Z199.

And, there is a strong blur episode from Z189-197, indicating that Zapruder involuntarily reacted to the sound of a shot and proving that the shot was fired shortly before Z189.

PEP member William Hartmann noted that since Willis Slide 5 was snapped at Z202, this showed that the shot must have been fired at or shortly before Z190.

Of course, the problem with this Z186-190 first hit for the lone-gunman theory is that the sixth-floor gunman's view of JFK would have been blocked by the oak tree from Z166-Z210. Even the WC admitted that its supposed lone gunman would not have fired during this time, which is why the Commission claimed that the first hit did not occur until after Z210.

Reactions to Six Shots in the Zapruder Film
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nnp3Vch_KMOB_qufAhlQOCLTTS9jqNV0/view

And we can dismiss with a giggle the absurd idea that the alleged lone gunman missed the entire limousine with his first and closest shot. The limo was 6.5 feet wide and 21 feet long. It boggles the mind to think how the same guy who allegedly performed a shooting feat that Master-rated riflemen were unable to duplicate could have missed the entire gigantic limo with his first and easiest shot. Yet, this is exactly what many WC apologists now claim.

All interesting except they should have just asked the people standing along the road. Jean Newman who would be standing near what was Z202, when JFK was directly in front of her, said it happened after her. The Chisms who would be standing near what would be Z217, when JFK was directly in front of them, said it happened before them. Both sets of people could not have been closer.

[Walt Cakebread]

And what has this got to do with how many shells were discovered in the SN?
The answer to this question is that it has nothing to do with how many shells were originally discovered in the SN.
The initial reports of officers who were on the 6th floor when Mooney discovered the SN and the shells, explicitly state that there were three shells.
Tom Alyea, who was with Fritz when he arrived at the SN also reported three shells.
Three shells were originally discovered in the SN.
Your assertion that there were originally two shells is wrong - it's another Walt "fact".

Although none of this is anything to do with when the first shot was fired [the topic of this thread], it is part of the assumption I have based this thread on - that three, clearly audible shots were fired from the SN.
Three shells were originally discovered in the SN. Hank Norman, directly beneath the SN heard three shots being taken directly above him  and shells hittiing the floor.
Witnesses saw a man in the SN window pointing a rifle towards the Presidential limo at the same time Norman reports hears the shots being fired from above him [that is to say, he hears shots being fired from the same position the eye-witnesses see the man with the rifle].
Three shots - three shells.

The assumption I'm making is a sound one.
In this thread I have collected an overwhelming amount of evidence demonstrating the first shot occurred at z222/z223. It was the "throat shot" that caused JFK's hands to fly up towards his throat.
Knowing when the first shot happened doesn't throw any light on who took the shots and why, but I've always felt that such a fundamental piece of information relating to the assassination should be known, and not the subject of multiple, dubious theories.

Why would the investigators take photos of only 2/3 ( 66% )of the evidence?

[Andrew Mason]

No – this is presenting an opinion.

I am not presenting an opinion.
The witness statements regarding whether or not JFK had passed them at the time of the first shot is not my opinion.
The irony is that, as we shall see, all you do is offer your own hugely biased opinion without a scrap of evidence to back it up.



The statements of the witnesses pictured show, unanimously, that JFK had passed their position at the time of the first shot [as usual, statements lifted from Pat Speer's website]:

JUNE DISHONG: [taken from a letter written on the day of the assassination]
                        "His arm in the air waving… He drops his arm as they go by, possibly 20 feet. Suddenly--a sound. Gun shots? So hard to tell above the clamor of the crowd. The president bent forward into his wife’s lap as his arm slipped off the side of the car. Jackie circled him with her arm. Another shot. Panic among the people. Woman with children. Parents pushing them to the ground. No one knows where the shots are coming from. A cry. The President has been shot. A third shot, people scatter. I can't believe what I have seen.

First of all, one has to get the locations of the witnesses correct.   You have identified Dishong correctly as the fourth person to the left of the Stemmons sign in the zfilm.  You are showing Burney standing immediately to the left of June Dishong.  However, Roberdeau shows her farther left, two persons left of Templin.  So I would be interested to know how you have determined that Burney was beside Dishong.

We do know that Karen Westbrook was the woman in the blue scarf just under the left edge of the Stemmons sign in the Zfilm:


So let's look at the person who was standing 3 persons to the right of Dishong: Karen Westbrook who also gave a statement (22 H 679). Westbrook said "The car he was in was almost directly in front of where I was standing when I heard the first shot.  So not only was the President not yet directly in front of her, the car he was in was not yet quite directly in front of her.   She identified frame z202 as about the time of the first shot in her Youtube Six Floor Museum interview at about 20:55:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJghyNiPOoU&t=19s

Dishong specifically states that JFK had passed her position at the time of the first shot - this is not my opinion.

Yes. It is your opinion. She said the first shot occurred "as they go by". That does not necessarily mean it was after JFK had passed her position.  And your opinion seems to be at odds with Karen Westbrook's statements.

PEGGY BURNEY: [A first person account  published in the Dallas Times-Heraldthe day after the assassination]
                         "When the President's car made the curve around the corner, he was smiling and waving...he was happy and Jackie was happy and smiling as they passed. The car had passed about 15 feet beyond me when I heard the first shot. I did not realize it was a shot; I thought it was a backfire. The President ducked; instinctively I told myself 'something is happening,' but nobody knew what."
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Again, this is an equivocal statement. If the car was in the process of passing, does she mean the front of the car or the back or the middle? And what is the 15 feet in reference to?  She was about 15 feet from the car as it passed (12' right lane + 4' of the middle lane).  Did she mean the car side was about 15 feet beyond me when it passed?  And all of this is critical because if Burney was opposite JFK at about z202 (as per Roberdeau),  the car had started to pass her 15' before z202 or at about z187 (12 mph=18/sec or 1'/frame).

Your placement of Burney is not without controversy.  Gloria Calvery is identified by Karen Westbrook as the person immediately to Westbrook's left (grey dress, light hair). Calvery gave an FBI statement similar to that of Westbrook ("almost directly in front of where I was standing when I heard the first shot"). Karan Hicks was identified (with some uncertainty) by Westbrook as the woman to the left of Gloria Calvery.  She gave a statement very similar to that of Westbrook and Calvery.

Betty Thornton was standing opposite JFK about z201 according to Roberdeau. Betty Thornton gave a statement to the FBI on 22Nov63 (22 H 677). She said "As the car in which the President was riding passed by, I heard what I thought were firecrackers being discharged".  That is consistent with a first shot occurring as some part of the car was opposite her (z186 to z207) and inconsistent with a shot occurring after the entire car had traveled 15 feet past where she was standing, which is what you are suggesting.

Jane Berry was standing to the left of Thornton, opposite JFK at z200 if Roberdeau is correct.  Jane Berry gave a statement (CD5 in which she said "Just as the car was passing by her, she heard a rifle shot".  This is consistent with some part of the car being opposite her when the first shot was heard (ie. the first shot between z185 and z206). It is inconsistent with a first shot at z222.

Burney could not be any more specific - the Presidential limo was 15ft beyond her position when she heard the first shot - this is not my opinion.

Yes. It is your opinion and it is based on a position for Burney that is at odds with Roberdeau.  And your opinion seems to be at odds with Betty Thornton's and Jane Berry's statements.

JEAN NEWMAN: [ From a statement to the Dallas Sheriff’s Department on the day of the assassination]
                       "I was standing right on this side of the Stemmons Freeway sign, about halfway between the sign and the edge of the building on the corner… The motorcade had just passed me when I heard something that I thought was a firecracker at first, and the President had just passed me, because after he had just passed, there was a loud report, it just scared me, and I noticed that the President jumped, he sort of ducked his head down, and I thought at the time that it probably scared him too."

Jean Newman appears to have been standing opposite the President at z204 as she was to the immediate right of Brandt.  She stated that the President had just passed her at the time of the first shot.  I don't know what "just" means, but it is not clear that this means he had traveled 18' past the point when he was directly in front of her.

Newman is certain JFK had passed her position at the time of the first shot - this is not my opinion.

Newman's statement is not completely inconsistent with a first shot as late as z222 but it is at odds with the statements of people to her left (Thornton, Berry and, maybe, Burney).

ERNEST BRANDT: [Oral History interview performed for the Sixth Floor Museum, 5-12-94]
                          "He was kind of casually smiling…acknowledging the crowd and waving casually. Nothing had happened by the time the limo was exactly opposite us, from the curb straight out to the street. Nothing had happened. But I was still watching Kennedy from the back...And of course, all I could see above the back seat was his shoulders, his neck, and head…I think the limousine was probably about 60 or 70 feet past us, three or four seconds I guess from the time. It wasn't moving real slow but yet not real fast either, y'know. And--60 or 70 feet past us, then BAM! the first shot was fired and boy it just reverberated around Dealey Plaza something terrible."

[11-22-95 article in the Dallas Morning News]
"Ernest Brandt, a salesman, watched from the curb as President John F Kennedy's motorcade turned down the Elm Street slope toward Stemmons Freeway... "Kennedy's limo was about 15 to 20 feet past us when the first shot was fired. I was still looking at him and I saw his arms come up."

[July 2000 hand-written, 3-page letter from Brandt to researcher Don Roberdeau published in part on Roberdeau's Men of Courage website and posted in total on the alt.assassination.JFK newsgroup in 2009]
 "President Kennedy was about 15 feet from me when the FIRST SHOT WAS FIRED!!! He was SLIGHTLY PAST ME at a "ONE O'CLOCK POSITION" in relation to my location on the NORTH SIDE of the Elm street curb.

I am not sure why you place much weight on such specific details from a witness whose first statements were made 30+ years after the events and whose statements put the first shot in a range of 75 feet.  The first statement in 1994 puts the first shot as 60 or 70 frames after z210!  Besides, he was farther down the street from Berry, Thornton and, possibly, Burney who said that the car was passing them at the time of the first shot.

Brandt could not be more explicit - he was looking at JFK from behind at the time of the first shot - this is not my opinion.

That does appear to be his recollection 30+ years after the fact - he explicitly recalled the President being 15' to 60' to 70' feet past him. Not very precise.

JOHN TEMPLIN: [7-28-95 Oral History interview for the Sixth Floor Museum]
"Well, as the limo drew even with us, well, the president was waving and, of course, grinning. He had just a great big smile on his face...And just about, I would say, thirty feet past us, we heard what I personally thought was a motorcycle backfire, and I... the president kind of threw his shoulders up a little bit and kind of laid his head back on the back of the seat, and I thought, well, he’s just playing and playing the crowd and acting silly, you know.

Templin is certain JFK had passed his position at the time of the first shot - this is not my opinion.

I agree.  But this statement is at odds with statements of witnesses to his left on Elm St.

All your witnesses except Brandt and Templin (who gave their first statements over 30 years after the event) are equivocal as to whether JFK had passed their position at the time of the first shot.

The best representation of where these witnesses were stood in relation to where the limo was at specific Z-frames is Don Roberdeau's map.
As I have already posted, when we map their positions in Dealey Plaza compared to the limo position at various Z-frames it becomes apparent that the first shot cannot have taken place any earlier than z222/z223.

There are obvious problems with the Roberdeau positions a(eg. Wesbrook, Jacob, Simmons).  Your position for Burney shows that.  You seem to disagree with Roberdeau's position for her.  And even Roberdeau's positions have changed in different versions. What version are you using?

Mary Woodward gave a statement on 6Dec63  (24 H 520).  Her position is identified from photos (Altgens 6) and the zfilm - she is two people right of "hard hat" AJ Millican (Millican is the guy standing beside the lamp post) wearing a light grey dress.  She was directly opposite JFK at about z192. 

Woodward stated that she and others in her group cheered the President and that both he and Jackie turned and waved to them as they went by.  That turn and wave starts at z172 and is complete by z180.  She then said that one or two seconds after they turned and waved, the first "horrible, ear-shattering noise" sounded.  One second would put the first shot from z190 to z198.  Two seconds puts the shot from z208 to z216.  Since we can pinpoint to within 8 frames of where the President turned and waved to them (z172-180), we can see that the car (21 feet long with 6 feet of car behind JFK) traveling at 1 foot per frame is starting to pass in front of where she was standing (opposite JFK at z192) at around z177.  It continues to pass her for 21 frames ie. until z198, so the impression that they turned and waved as the car passed by is consistent with the zfilm. 

[Dan O'meara]

The HSCA Photographic Evidence Panel (PEP) tore the thin scab of the festering wound of the first hit by admitting that the first hit came while the sixth-floor gunman's view was blocked by the oak tree. The PEP, to their great credit, admitted that the Zapruder film plainly and clearly shows that JFK starts to react to being shot by Z200 and that this shot was fired at or before Z190.

The PEP noted that at around Z200, Kennedy's movements suddenly freeze and his right hand abruptly stops in the middle of a waving motion. JFK's head rapidly moves from the right toward his wife on his left. JFK's hand not only stops suddenly in the middle of a wave, but it also drops to the chin or throat level in a fraction of a second and stays at that level until he disappears behind the freeway sign at Z207. Clearly, he's starting to reach for his throat.

The PEP's analysis involving JFK's sharp head turn to the left has been completely debunked in this thread - Reply#60, page 8
JFK makes no sharp head turn and is, in fact, still looking to his right as he passes behind the Stemmons sign.
There is no hand freeze, he simply starts waving and then begins to lower his right hand to it's original position.
The notion that he is reaching for his throat before he passes behind the Stemmons sign has also been debunked in this thread. In the graphic below it can be seen that between z224 and z225 JFK's hand is lowering. That is to say, his hand is moving away from his throat:



So, far from reaching for his throat before he passes behind the Stemmons sign, JFK's right hand is still lowering after finishing waving. The reason his hand is still lowering must be because he is not yet reacting to being shot.
It is between z225 and z226 that his right hand suddenly moves towards his throat. At the same time, his left arm, which you will notice is still down by his side in z224 [the same position as when he passes behind the Stemmons sign], suddenly begins the unbelievably quick movement that ends up with his elbows extended high in the air. This really extreme physical position is achieved in a fraction of a second. It is clearly an extreme reflex reaction and it is all caught on the Z-film.

At virtually the same instant, Jackie suddenly and rapidly starts to turn her to the right toward JFK. At Z207, Howard Brennan snaps his head to the right.

This is completely untrue. Jackie had turned to her right well before this. Around the z170's JFK, Jackie and JBC all turn to their right in reaction to Mary Woodward and her colleagues shouting out to the President. Something both Woodward and Vickie Adams describe in detail.

We now know that the Secret Service analysis of the Zapruder film, conducted with the aid of a surveyor in Dealey Plaza a few days after the assassination, concluded that Kennedy was first hit at around Z199.

And, there is a strong blur episode from Z189-197, indicating that Zapruder involuntarily reacted to the sound of a shot and proving that the shot was fired shortly before Z189.

PEP member William Hartmann noted that since Willis Slide 5 was snapped at Z202, this showed that the shot must have been fired at or shortly before Z190.

Of course, the problem with this Z186-190 first hit for the lone-gunman theory is that the sixth-floor gunman's view of JFK would have been blocked by the oak tree from Z166-Z210. Even the WC admitted that its supposed lone gunman would not have fired during this time, which is why the Commission claimed that the first hit did not occur until after Z210.

Reactions to Six Shots in the Zapruder Film
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nnp3Vch_KMOB_qufAhlQOCLTTS9jqNV0/view

And we can dismiss with a giggle the absurd idea that the alleged lone gunman missed the entire limousine with his first and closest shot. The limo was 6.5 feet wide and 21 feet long. It boggles the mind to think how the same guy who allegedly performed a shooting feat that Master-rated riflemen were unable to duplicate could have missed the entire gigantic limo with his first and easiest shot. Yet, this is exactly what many WC apologists now claim.

And we can dismiss with a giggle the absurd idea that the alleged lone gunman missed the entire limousine with his first and closest shot.

We can also dismiss with a giggle the notion of the assassin firing through the oak tree. It's an absolutely absurd notion. Particularly as Fischer reports that, in the moments just before the motorcade entered Dealey Plaza, he watches the man in the SN staring "transfixed" towards the triple underpass. The assassin must surely be visualising the kill zone, the empty stretch of road once the limo has passed from underneath the foliage of the oak tree.

[Dan O'meara]

First of all, one has to get the locations of the witnesses correct.   You have identified Dishong correctly as the fourth person to the left of the Stemmons sign in the zfilm.  You are showing Burney standing immediately to the left of June Dishong.  However, Roberdeau shows her farther left, two persons left of Templin.  So I would be interested to know how you have determined that Burney was beside Dishong.

We do know that Karen Westbrook was the woman in the blue scarf just under the left edge of the Stemmons sign in the Zfilm:


So let's look at the person who was standing 3 persons to the right of Dishong: Karen Westbrook who also gave a statement (22 H 679). Westbrook said "The car he was in was almost directly in front of where I was standing when I heard the first shot.  So not only was the President not yet directly in front of her, the car he was in was not yet quite directly in front of her.   She identified frame z202 as about the time of the first shot in her Youtube Six Floor Museum interview at about 20:55:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJghyNiPOoU&t=19s
Yes. It is your opinion. She said the first shot occurred "as they go by". That does not necessarily mean it was after JFK had passed her position.  And your opinion seems to be at odds with Karen Westbrook's statements.

Again, this is an equivocal statement. If the car was in the process of passing, does she mean the front of the car or the back or the middle? And what is the 15 feet in reference to?  She was about 15 feet from the car as it passed (12' right lane + 4' of the middle lane).  Did she mean the car side was about 15 feet beyond me when it passed?  And all of this is critical because if Burney was opposite JFK at about z202 (as per Roberdeau),  the car had started to pass her 15' before z202 or at about z187 (12 mph=18/sec or 1'/frame).

Your placement of Burney is not without controversy.  Gloria Calvery is identified by Karen Westbrook as the person immediately to Westbrook's left (grey dress, light hair). Calvery gave an FBI statement similar to that of Westbrook ("almost directly in front of where I was standing when I heard the first shot"). Karan Hicks was identified (with some uncertainty) by Westbrook as the woman to the left of Gloria Calvery.  She gave a statement very similar to that of Westbrook and Calvery.

Betty Thornton was standing opposite JFK about z201 according to Roberdeau. Betty Thornton gave a statement to the FBI on 22Nov63 (22 H 677). She said "As the car in which the President was riding passed by, I heard what I thought were firecrackers being discharged".  That is consistent with a first shot occurring as some part of the car was opposite her (z186 to z207) and inconsistent with a shot occurring after the entire car had traveled 15 feet past where she was standing, which is what you are suggesting.

Jane Berry was standing to the left of Thornton, opposite JFK at z200 if Roberdeau is correct.  Jane Berry gave a statement (CD5 in which she said "Just as the car was passing by her, she heard a rifle shot".  This is consistent with some part of the car being opposite her when the first shot was heard (ie. the first shot between z185 and z206). It is inconsistent with a first shot at z222.
Yes. It is your opinion and it is based on a position for Burney that is at odds with Roberdeau.  And your opinion seems to be at odds with Betty Thornton's and Jane Berry's statements.
Jean Newman appears to have been standing opposite the President at z204 as she was to the immediate right of Brandt.  She stated that the President had just passed her at the time of the first shot.  I don't know what "just" means, but it is not clear that this means he had traveled 18' past the point when he was directly in front of her.
Newman's statement is not completely inconsistent with a first shot as late as z222 but it is at odds with the statements of people to her left (Thornton, Berry and, maybe, Burney).
I am not sure why you place much weight on such specific details from a witness whose first statements were made 30+ years after the events and whose statements put the first shot in a range of 75 feet.  The first statement in 1994 puts the first shot as 60 or 70 frames after z210!  Besides, he was farther down the street from Berry, Thornton and, possibly, Burney who said that the car was passing them at the time of the first shot.
That does appear to be his recollection 30+ years after the fact - he explicitly recalled the President being 15' to 60' to 70' feet past him. Not very precise.
I agree.  But this statement is at odds with statements of witnesses to his left on Elm St.

All your witnesses except Brandt and Templin (who gave their first statements over 30 years after the event) are equivocal as to whether JFK had passed their position at the time of the first shot.
There are obvious problems with the Roberdeau positions a(eg. Wesbrook, Jacob, Simmons).  Your position for Burney shows that.  You seem to disagree with Roberdeau's position for her.  And even Roberdeau's positions have changed in different versions. What version are you using?

Mary Woodward gave a statement on 6Dec63  (24 H 520).  Her position is identified from photos (Altgens 6) and the zfilm - she is two people right of "hard hat" AJ Millican (Millican is the guy standing beside the lamp post) wearing a light grey dress.  She was directly opposite JFK at about z192. 

Woodward stated that she and others in her group cheered the President and that both he and Jackie turned and waved to them as they went by.  That turn and wave starts at z172 and is complete by z180.  She then said that one or two seconds after they turned and waved, the first "horrible, ear-shattering noise" sounded.  One second would put the first shot from z190 to z198.  Two seconds puts the shot from z208 to z216.  Since we can pinpoint to within 8 frames of where the President turned and waved to them (z172-180), we can see that the car (21 feet long with 6 feet of car behind JFK) traveling at 1 foot per frame is starting to pass in front of where she was standing (opposite JFK at z192) at around z177.  It continues to pass her for 21 frames ie. until z198, so the impression that they turned and waved as the car passed by is consistent with the zfilm.

The woman wearing the blue scarf is Sharon Simmons, not Karen Westbrook.
The various identifications are summed up in Pat Speer's website in the Chapter 7b "More Pieces in the Plaza".