From the first dose, it takes 10 days to get a good deal of immunity. 21 days after the first vaccine, a person should receive the second. So, by about 31 days after the first vaccine, a person should be pretty safe.
Prediction. By the end of January, we should have roughly 25 million people immunized. In theory, this should make a big difference. I suspect that in reality, it won’t.
The vaccines are not by given out randomly, but to a large extend to the people who tend to need hospitals, people living in convalescent hospitals. So, when 1,000 people out of every 1,000,000 get the virus, that is enough to strain the hospitals to the max. California is approaching that. But most of the people with COVID-19 in the hospital came from convalescent hospitals. So, once they are vaccinated, we should be out of the woods, right?
I don’t think so. With the very elderly not vaccinated, 1,000 people out of every 1,000,000 getting COVID-19 a day, is enough to fill the hospitals. But with just that small group vaccinated, it will probably take 5,000 people out of every 1,000,000 getting sick a day to fill the hospitals, now mostly with patients between 40 to 70, who were not vaccinated. The problem is, we can easily reach a point where 5,000 people out of every 1,000,000 come down with COVID-19 every day.
And Americans shows a pattern, that when we think they are out of the woods, we let down our guard. When people let down their guard, the virus can easily double every two weeks, or even faster, as has had happened in California during the last month. I think the big problem we are having now was mostly caused by people hearing the vaccines are almost here and so they let down their guard and got together with others for Thanksgiving and other get togethers.
When we get the good news that the number of people in the hospitals have gone down a lot, the rate of transmission is going to shoot up. And likely will shoot up in anticipation of that news.
Don’t let down your guard. We won’t be out of the woods until, perhaps, 70% have been vaccinated. Maybe your next get together should be for the Fourth of July.
Finally, if you come down with COVID-19 while the hospitals are maxed out, your odds of dying are multiplied by 5, maybe 10.
And don’t delay getting the vaccine. A wait of an extra month can be fatal. It may push you into a period when the hospitals are maxed out. As things get better, things are going to get worse. You can bank on it.
