The Warren Commission essentially concluded that one shot missed but couldn’t say, with any certainty, which shot missed. The HSCA essentially indicated that they thought that it was the first shot that missed. I tend to agree with it being the first shot; but it is still debatable.
Carl Day, DPD said the following in his interview in “No More Silence”:
During the course of the investigation at the School Book Depository, an officer came in and said they’d found a skid mark close to a manhole cover on Elm Street directly in line of the shots. So I went down there maybe 150 or more feet from the window. Then there was a rumor that somebody was supposed to have heard a shell zipping by on that railroad track. In any case, one of the officers found a place by that manhole cover that looked like something might have either hit or bounced. It could have been a skid mark from a slug; it could have been some other kind of mark; it could have been a tool of some sort. Whatever it was we took a little sample of the concrete and sent it to the laboratory to see if there might have been any trace of lead from a slug. If I remember correctly, they found nothing.
I believe that one of the aspects of the other mark on the curb on Main Street nearby where Tague stood is that, when it was tested, they found lead, but no copper. And some people say that the absence of copper indicates that the bullet didn’t still have the copper jacket on it.
I believe that the first shot missed, hit the concrete around the manhole cover and ricocheted to hit the curb near Tague. So it appears to me that the copper jacket was separated from the lead bullet core as a result of it hitting the concrete near the manhole area. This would explain why when Carl Day or his team sent the concrete sample from the manhole area to be tested for lead, they found none.
Anyway, the report from the lab for this test might have been archived with the other records from the DPD. And it would be interesting to see if they tested for or found copper in that sample.