The Shot That Missed

[Charles Collins]

Here’s a different independent take supporting an early first shot that missed. Bullet trajectory is not part of the analysis (but I would guess it disintegrated in the pavement as a near miss as there was nothing between the rifle and limo at the time).

Background:  Recently there have been two common LN estimates debated for the first shot timing (in the three shot scenario). The more recent one by Holland/DeRonja and an older one by HSCA/Posner/Bugliosi.  Both are influenced heavily on testimony and especially on Win Lawson’s testimony for Holland/DeRonja and John Connally’s testimony for HSCA/Posner/Bugliosi. In addition at times they both have been fueled by theorizing something deflected the bullet (a traffic mast or tree branches). Besides an obstruction, the choice in testimonies that have been chosen to focus on gives two clearly different answers. Is the testimony problem just too much natural variation in witness memories, or the interpretations that researchers try to assign to those memories/testimonies, or both, or some witnesses being misled or even worse lying? (I don’t believe in dishonesty and deceit though)

I wondered what the result would be if no testimony at all was used, but rather a technique using only reactions on film.
The referenced manuscript below did that, and formalizes the work done via a forensic technique based on the science of human reaction times that is applied to the evaluation of surprise gunshot sounds in silent films. It’s an analytical tool that doesn’t rely on any eyewitness testimony, and as such is a good candidate to independently estimate the JFK first shot timing on Elm Street using early reactions identified in the Zapruder film.
https://www.acsr.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2020-Estimating-Occult-Timing-of-Surprise-Gunshot-Sounds-in-Silent-Film-via-Observed-Start-of-Human-Voluntary-Reactions-of-Concern-Roselle.pdf

Applied to the JFK case, the analysis technique indicated that the first shot was triggered half a second before z133. In a 3 shot scenario where shot 2 struck around z222 and shot 3 struck just before z313, this would give approximately three equally spaced shots with the duration of the three shot shooting sequence ~10.2 seconds.

How does this compare to those other two completely different based analysis?  Well, although notably different, interestingly enough it positions the first shot happening at a very specific point in time which occurred in-between the timing estimates of Holland/DeRonja and that of HSCA/Posner/Bugliosi and a point in time where the limo was at least temporarily essentially in the clear.

Wow, well done Brian. A very impressive document. It doesn’t try to answer the question of why the first shot missed the entire limo. But I believe that a study of the ergonomics of the sniper’s nest identifies two potential objects that could have interfered (the conduit closest to the window and the top outer corner of the box on the window sill) and caused the shot to miss.

What can you tell us about yours and Kenneth Scearce’s background and experience in crime scene reconstruction?

Thanks for posting the link to the report. The approach appears to be a good one. And the methods and conclusions based on good science.

[Jack Nessan]

There is no way to misinterpret his meaning.


One of us has, and it is obviously you. You are taking one sentence out of context and trying to twist it to mean something that is doesn’t. If you read the statement in full the true meaning is apparent. Despite your lame attempt to claim otherwise.

There are a number of contradictory statements just like Drain's. Nelly Connally as an example. Her original statement was she did not know about a third shot. You are just focusing on the part you like. The fact you cannot  provide any evidence of a third shot should be a clue.

[Brian Roselle]

Thanks Charles, it took longer than initially envisioned to complete/formalize the research.

I agree that the frustrating part of the methodology is that it does not say anything about the disposition of the bullet or why the shot missed, only the timing of a surprise shot. So those others are separate questions, but the timing is a key start. I have considered the limo apparent angular motion as a possibility for a miss, but it seems there could be other reasons as well and I had never thought about the effect that physical constraints of the snipers nest may have had on an early shot, so I like how you are looking into these other possibilities.
 
I know Ken’s interest in the case goes way back, and as an attorney has experience with cases in a courtroom.  My interest goes back to that day, I was in 4th grade when it happened and I had to be the one to tell my mom when I got home a little early that afternoon. She hadn’t heard the news yet and was upset because she liked Kennedy but that may have been because of more than just politics. She happened to be a war bride from Ireland that came to America. Her maiden name was the same as JFK’s great grandmother who also came to America, and they both came from the same part of Ireland.

I am not a criminologist (or a criminal to my knowledge), but worked in R&D as a scientist/engineer. I suspect having to understand competitors’ products, how they worked, and developing new products and methods for the company I worked for, was instrumental in helping to do this method development work.

[Charles Collins]

Thanks Charles, it took longer than initially envisioned to complete/formalize the research.

I agree that the frustrating part of the methodology is that it does not say anything about the disposition of the bullet or why the shot missed, only the timing of a surprise shot. So those others are separate questions, but the timing is a key start. I have considered the limo apparent angular motion as a possibility for a miss, but it seems there could be other reasons as well and I had never thought about the effect that physical constraints of the snipers nest may have had on an early shot, so I like how you are looking into these other possibilities.
 
I know Ken’s interest in the case goes way back, and as an attorney has experience with cases in a courtroom.  My interest goes back to that day, I was in 4th grade when it happened and I had to be the one to tell my mom when I got home a little early that afternoon. She hadn’t heard the news yet and was upset because she liked Kennedy but that may have been because of more than just politics. She happened to be a war bride from Ireland that came to America. Her maiden name was the same as JFK’s great grandmother who also came to America, and they both came from the same part of Ireland.

I am not a criminologist (or a criminal to my knowledge), but worked in R&D as a scientist/engineer. I suspect having to understand competitors’ products, how they worked, and developing new products and methods for the company I worked for, was instrumental in helping to do this method development work.

I have considered the limo apparent angular motion as a possibility for a miss, but it seems there could be other reasons as well and I had never thought about the effect that physical constraints of the snipers nest may have had on an early shot, so I like how you are looking into these other possibilities.


Yes, there are several possibilities for why the shot apparently missed so badly. LHO used to hunt rabbits with a .22 rifle and was reportedly pretty good at it. So the angular motion possibility seems to me to be less likely (I can believe him missing the head, but not the entire limo). I created a 3-D virtual model of the sniper’s nest and located the target (limo with JFK in right rear seat) at the three different locations. If the sniper was seated on the box on the floor, it appears that the corner of the top box on the window sill would likely interfere with the aiming of the rifle very near the Z133 timeframe target location. So this is one potential possibility. And the conduit nearest to the window would be very close to his left elbow as he raised the rifle up to begin aiming it (even more so if he were attempting an early shot before the tree limb cover came into play). A couple of others here have their own 3-D computer models (which are more elaborate than mine; and all of them are based on actual measurements of Dealey Plaza) and have verified my findings regarding the interference objects. So it all makes sense to me. And your article reinforces the ideas that some of us have regarding the first shot timing. Thanks again for sharing it with us.

[Brian Roselle]

Maybe this is relevant to your thoughts.

Awhile back, for an early shot limo position, I looked at how much of an error in aim would it take to entirely miss the limo. I don’t recall if I shared that here.

What surprised me was that for a minimum limo miss, the rifle aim (measured at the gun holding/aiming support point on the barrel located around the midpoint of the gun) would appear to only need to be off by around 0.5 inch.
That’s less than I expected and seems like that might not be inconsistent with an error in tracking, or an unexpectedly bumping of the rifle on something (box?) at a point just before triggering, or a combination of both.

The diagram for this is at the link. The sniper nest and boxes, and the Zapruder frame are to help in visualization and do not necessarily imply the exact positioning or time.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hZEgKoRdXBBpzrLArLUZh9JsNA3oIE_E/view?usp=sharing

[Steve M. Galbraith]

Maybe this is relevant to your thoughts.

Awhile back, for an early shot limo position, I looked at how much of an error in aim would it take to entirely miss the limo. I don’t recall if I shared that here.

What surprised me was that for a minimum limo miss, the rifle aim (measured at the gun holding/aiming support point on the barrel located around the midpoint of the gun) would appear to only need to be off by around 0.5 inch.
That’s less than I expected and seems like that might not be inconsistent with an error in tracking, or an unexpectedly bumping of the rifle on something (box?) at a point just before triggering, or a combination of both.

The diagram for this is at the link. The sniper nest and boxes, and the Zapruder frame are to help in visualization and do not necessarily imply the exact positioning or time.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hZEgKoRdXBBpzrLArLUZh9JsNA3oIE_E/view?usp=sharing

Does the issue of some earwitnesses saying the first shot sounded different than the others mean anything re the angle/time?

And many of the witnesses further down, along the Grassy Knoll, said they didn't hear a first shot. Zapruder, Sitzman, Brehm, the Newmans.....all basically said they heard two shots. Mrs. Newman said there may have been a third.

I find it very odd that many of the spectators further down Elm at the time of the supposed first shot said they only heard two shots.

[Charles Collins]

Does the issue of some earwitnesses saying the first shot sounded different than the others mean anything re the angle/time?

And many of the witnesses further down, along the Grassy Knoll, said they didn't hear a first shot. Zapruder, Sitzman, Brehm, the Newmans.....all basically said they heard two shots. Mrs. Newman said there may have been a third.

I find it very odd that many of the spectators further down Elm at the time of the supposed first shot said they only heard two shots.

I find it very odd that many of the spectators further down Elm at the time of the supposed first shot said they only heard two shots.


Some potential reasons for that that I have considered are:

The ambient noise level increases as one moves towards the triple underpass due to the train moving over the underpass at the time of the shots. Also there is the significant noise created by the four Harley Davidson motorcycles which would either be very close to those witnesses and/or between them and the TSBD (source of the rifle shot). The crowd noise is also a factor and would tend to be loudest nearer to the limo. (The crowds which the limo had already passed would most likely have slowed or stopped yelling and clapping after the limo went by.) And also, since there were no overtly obvious indications (like the reactions after both JFK and JBC were hit) the sound of a missed first shot might have blended in with the other noises and just not been recognized as a rifle shot noise.

[Charles Collins]

Maybe this is relevant to your thoughts.

Awhile back, for an early shot limo position, I looked at how much of an error in aim would it take to entirely miss the limo. I don’t recall if I shared that here.

What surprised me was that for a minimum limo miss, the rifle aim (measured at the gun holding/aiming support point on the barrel located around the midpoint of the gun) would appear to only need to be off by around 0.5 inch.
That’s less than I expected and seems like that might not be inconsistent with an error in tracking, or an unexpectedly bumping of the rifle on something (box?) at a point just before triggering, or a combination of both.

The diagram for this is at the link. The sniper nest and boxes, and the Zapruder frame are to help in visualization and do not necessarily imply the exact positioning or time.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hZEgKoRdXBBpzrLArLUZh9JsNA3oIE_E/view?usp=sharing

Thanks, that is interesting. I think that someone with the shooting abilities that LHO had is unlikely to miss his target by that much unless there was some interference of some sort. An inadvertent bump on a box corner or elbow to the conduit would seem to be enough.