The Shot That Missed

[Charles Collins]

The Warren Commission essentially concluded that one shot missed but couldn’t say, with any certainty, which shot missed. The HSCA essentially indicated that they thought that it was the first shot that missed. I tend to agree with it being the first shot; but it is still debatable.

Carl Day, DPD said the following in his interview in “No More Silence”:


During the course of the investigation at the School Book Depository, an officer came in and said they’d found a skid mark close to a manhole cover on Elm Street directly in line of the shots. So I went down there maybe 150 or more feet from the window. Then there was a rumor that somebody was supposed to have heard a shell zipping by on that railroad track. In any case, one of the officers found a place by that manhole cover that looked like something might have either hit or bounced. It could have been a skid mark from a slug; it could have been some other kind of mark; it could have been a tool of some sort. Whatever it was we took a little sample of the concrete and sent it to the laboratory to see if there might have been any trace of lead from a slug. If I remember correctly, they found nothing.


I believe that one of the aspects of the other mark on the curb on Main Street nearby where Tague stood is that, when it was tested, they found lead, but no copper. And some people say that the absence of copper indicates that the bullet didn’t still have the copper jacket on it.

I believe that the first shot missed, hit the concrete around the manhole cover and ricocheted to hit the curb near Tague. So it appears to me that the copper jacket was separated from the lead bullet core as a result of it hitting the concrete near the manhole area. This would explain why when Carl Day or his team sent the concrete sample from the manhole area to be tested for lead, they found none.

Anyway, the report from the lab for this test might have been archived with the other records from the DPD. And it would be interesting to see if they tested for or found copper in that sample.

[Dan O'meara]

The Warren Commission essentially concluded that one shot missed but couldn’t say, with any certainty, which shot missed. The HSCA essentially indicated that they thought that it was the first shot that missed. I tend to agree with it being the first shot; but it is still debatable.

Carl Day, DPD said the following in his interview in “No More Silence”:


During the course of the investigation at the School Book Depository, an officer came in and said they’d found a skid mark close to a manhole cover on Elm Street directly in line of the shots. So I went down there maybe 150 or more feet from the window. Then there was a rumor that somebody was supposed to have heard a shell zipping by on that railroad track. In any case, one of the officers found a place by that manhole cover that looked like something might have either hit or bounced. It could have been a skid mark from a slug; it could have been some other kind of mark; it could have been a tool of some sort. Whatever it was we took a little sample of the concrete and sent it to the laboratory to see if there might have been any trace of lead from a slug. If I remember correctly, they found nothing.


I believe that one of the aspects of the other mark on the curb on Main Street nearby where Tague stood is that, when it was tested, they found lead, but no copper. And some people say that the absence of copper indicates that the bullet didn’t still have the copper jacket on it.

I believe that the first shot missed, hit the concrete around the manhole cover and ricocheted to hit the curb near Tague. So it appears to me that the copper jacket was separated from the lead bullet core as a result of it hitting the concrete near the manhole area. This would explain why when Carl Day or his team sent the concrete sample from the manhole area to be tested for lead, they found none.

Anyway, the report from the lab for this test might have been archived with the other records from the DPD. And it would be interesting to see if they tested for or found copper in that sample.

I'm aware that you are a proponent of a very early first shot miss.
I assume you have it ricocheting off various tree limbs and traffic signals in order to reach the manhole area.
As you know, my own model proposes a late miss, after the headshot, something much more in line with a strike at the manhole area.

[Charles Collins]

I'm aware that you are a proponent of a very early first shot miss.
I assume you have it ricocheting off various tree limbs and traffic signals in order to reach the manhole area.
As you know, my own model proposes a late miss, after the headshot, something much more in line with a strike at the manhole area.

I assume you have it ricocheting off various tree limbs and traffic signals in order to reach the manhole area.

No, actually I believe that the first shot was inadvertent due to interference from the conduit closest to the window. It appears to me that the shooter’s left elbow would have been very close to it when he brought the rifle up and began his aim. If his left elbow actually struck that conduit while his other finger was on the trigger, this interference and resulting sudden stop of the movement of the rifle could have caused what is termed an accidental discharge by gun safety instructors. Because he likely wouldn’t have wanted to let anyone below see the rifle ahead of time, I believe that he would have waited until the limo was below him and then been in the process of quickly bringing the rifle up into position for an intended first shot as soon as the target emerged from under the tree limbs cover. Since he likely wouldn’t have been able to physically practice this maneuver (with the rifle) ahead of time, without potentially drawing unwanted attention to himself, he likely wouldn’t have anticipated the interference from the conduit. I believe the inadvertent shot happened before the rifle was fully aimed and that the bullet simply traveled to the manhole cover area without hitting anything beforehand.

Others have theorized the interference from either tree limbs or the traffic signal as reasons for the first shot missing the limo entirely. But the evidence for those scenarios is slim. The theory I believe in explains why the shot missed (it was inadvertent and thus not fully aimed).

Your theory would also work for the manhole cover strike scenario if the third shot was the one that missed. However, if that were the case, I believe that more witnesses would have described a shot after the headshot in their accounts. Most witnesses seem to believe that the headshot was the last one.

[Steve M. Galbraith]

The Warren Commission essentially concluded that one shot missed but couldn’t say, with any certainty, which shot missed. The HSCA essentially indicated that they thought that it was the first shot that missed. I tend to agree with it being the first shot; but it is still debatable.

Carl Day, DPD said the following in his interview in “No More Silence”:


During the course of the investigation at the School Book Depository, an officer came in and said they’d found a skid mark close to a manhole cover on Elm Street directly in line of the shots. So I went down there maybe 150 or more feet from the window. Then there was a rumor that somebody was supposed to have heard a shell zipping by on that railroad track. In any case, one of the officers found a place by that manhole cover that looked like something might have either hit or bounced. It could have been a skid mark from a slug; it could have been some other kind of mark; it could have been a tool of some sort. Whatever it was we took a little sample of the concrete and sent it to the laboratory to see if there might have been any trace of lead from a slug. If I remember correctly, they found nothing.


I believe that one of the aspects of the other mark on the curb on Main Street nearby where Tague stood is that, when it was tested, they found lead, but no copper. And some people say that the absence of copper indicates that the bullet didn’t still have the copper jacket on it.

I believe that the first shot missed, hit the concrete around the manhole cover and ricocheted to hit the curb near Tague. So it appears to me that the copper jacket was separated from the lead bullet core as a result of it hitting the concrete near the manhole area. This would explain why when Carl Day or his team sent the concrete sample from the manhole area to be tested for lead, they found none.

Anyway, the report from the lab for this test might have been archived with the other records from the DPD. And it would be interesting to see if they tested for or found copper in that sample.

The ballistic experts the Haags (father and son) tested carcano ammunition by firing it at asphalt blocks to see how it would respond. They discovered that the bullets simply disintegrated and didn't fragment. And no sparks were generated.

Perhaps the bullet was deflected first - slowed down, had its jacket torn off - and then hit the concrete? Or hit it indirectly and not, as shown below, almost directly? It's all way beyond my meager understanding of the matter.

Scroll/go to the 2:00 mark for the test.

[Charles Collins]

The ballistic experts the Haags (father and son) tested carcano ammunition by firing it at asphalt blocks to see how it would respond. They discovered that the bullets simply disintegrated and didn't fragment. And no sparks were generated.

Perhaps the bullet was deflected first - slowed down, had its jacket torn off - and then hit the concrete? Or hit it indirectly and not, as shown below, almost directly? It's all way beyond my meager understanding of the matter.

Scroll/go to the 2:00 mark for the test.

Thanks, I have seen the Haag demonstration before. And it is at a steep angle (directly as you stated). The angle from the sniper’s nest window to the manhole cover is very shallow. I believe that a ricochet is the most likely result of a bullet hitting concrete at that type of angle. And I believe Tague’s scratch just might be evidence of that.

[Joe Elliott]

The only ‘Shot that Missed’ that I am concerned about is the shot I was supposed to have gotten last month. When can I expect to receive my “Trump” shot in the arm? And I’m not talking about the $ 2,000.

[Charles Collins]

Here’s what FBI agent Vince Drain had to say about it in “No More Silence” by Larry Sneed:


Of course, time dims your memory a bit, but as I understand it, Oswald was sitting there looking through the scope with the target moving away at 10–12 M.P.H. It was a very easy target. He had one cartridge in the chamber ready, so he only had two more to put in to fire. The best we could tell when we reenacted it, and we went over this thing from all angles with the finest ballistics’ experts in the country, the first shot went wild which was found down close to a water outlet in the curb. The second shot hit the President in the fatty part of the neck and went through completely hitting Connally in the rib cage driving the bone ahead of it, came out, and part of it hit him in the wrist. The third shot is what caught the President in the back of the head. Now that’s the best that all the scientific people could come up with that happened.

[Jerry Freeman]

The only ‘Shot that Missed’ that I am concerned about is the shot I was supposed to have gotten last month. When can I expect to receive my “Trump” shot in the arm? And I’m not talking about the $ 2,000.

Write your congressional representative...meanwhile please try and stay on topic.