The next morning Oswald shows up with a long package that, in retrospect, is really obviously a rifle but Oswald palms it off as curtain rods and Frazier swallows it (not the sharpest tool in the shed.)
At this point you've lost me. There is nothing "really obvious" about it. A 34.8" long bag would not have fitted between the palm of Oswald's hand and underneath his shoulder nor would Oswald been able to carry the package, as described by Randle, without hitting the ground.
From this point onwards most of what you have written is pure speculation and conjecture.
I have met Frazier and he is absolutely 100% convinced that the bag he saw wasn't big enough to conceal a 34.8" broken down rifle. I have no reason to assume that he has been lying about this all his life.
You've missed the point Martin.
I was putting forward a made-up scenario to try to account for various aspects of the curtain rods.
In the scenario WBF and LMR concoct the story about the curtain rods to conceal that Oswald carried a rifle to work that day and Frazier would've been up s"^t creek for bringing the assassin of JFK and his rifle to work that morning.
One of the aspects this scenario covers is that Ruth Paine testified there was just 2 curtain rods in her garage which she had wrapped herself and that the curtain rods were still in the garage after the assassination. This means Oswald never took the curtain rods to work that morning.
Mr. JENNER - Now, that morning--if I may, Mr. Chairman, because of the entry of the police, that is a good cutoff point, I would like to go back to the morning for the moment, or the evening before. Mrs. Paine, did you then have what might be called some curtain rods in your garage?
Mrs. PAINE - I believe there were.
Mr. JENNER - Do you have a recollection?
Mrs. PAINE - Yes; they were stored in the garage, wrapped in loose brown paper.
Mr. JENNER - Is it the brown paper of the nature and character you described yesterday that you get at the market and have in a roll?
Mrs. PAINE - Yes.
Mr. JENNER - Had you wrapped that package yourself?
Mrs. PAINE - Yes.
Mr. JENNER - Now, how many of them were there?
Mrs. PAINE - Two.
Mr. JENNER - Let us return to the curtain rods first. Do you still have those curtain rods?
Mrs. PAINE - I believe so.
The curtain rods were collected from the Paine's garage, there was only two of them and both were there.