Oswald's shot-1 ricochet was at Z113 or Z105.

[Andrew Mason]

Moore saw that shot-1 was when JFK was just past the signals, not when near the Thornton sign (the FBI wrongly mentioned the Thornton sign).
Hence in fact Moore confirms that Oswald's shot-1 was at say Z113 (or even earlier as per Holland).

But it is not just Moore who put the first shot when JFK was opposite the Thornton Freeway sign, which was about z200. Linda Willis put the first shot when JFK was on her sight line to the Stemmons sign, which puts it between z195 and z205. The occupants of the VP car said the car had just finished the turn onto Elm.  It is still turning when last seen at z180. Betzner said his z186 photo was before the first shot - he was turning the film to take another when it sounded. Occupants of the VP follow up car said they were just finishing the turn and about parallel to the TSBD when the first shot sounded.  It is still turning and pointing toward the TSBD when last seen at z191.  Other witnesses along Elm described where JFK was in relation to where they were standing when the first shot sounded.  They all converge around z200. Not a single witness said JFK continued to smile and wave after the first shot.  Over 20 said he reacted immediately.

But, perhaps more to the point, there are too many witnesses who said that the last two shots were close together - in rapid succession - e.g Sheriff Roger Craig: "Not more than 2 seconds. It was—they were real rapid." 6H263.  Unless you think that 5 seconds is "real rapid" or "rapid succession" or "just about as fast as you could expect a man to operate a bolt action rifle" (Hudson, 26Nov63 WCD CD5 HSCA Ex. RG233), that does not fit a first shot miss.

[Andrew Mason]

Moore said the car was on this side of the Thornton sign, meaning it hadn't reached it. You really think Moore could calculate the President was exactly perpendicular to the Thornton sign when Moore was almost directly behind the President?

According to his statement, he said "By the time President Kennedy had reached the Thornton Freeway sign a shot was fired and Mr. MOORE observed the President slumping forward in the Presidential car."  I wasn't there.  I don't see why he would not be able to see that.

BUT we don't have to rely on just him.  There are at least 20 other witnesses who said that JFK moved left or slumped or assumed a blank look or clutched at his neck etc. (different vantage points) immediately after the first shot. He did that just after z200.  Not a single witness said he smiled and waved for 2-3 seconds as you insist he did.  Also, the shot pattern with the last two shots close together in rapid succession means that JFK was hit by the first shot.  I know you think all that evidence is mistaken but I don't think that many witnesses can possibly be independently mistaken in exactly the same way (let alone that they were).

The Willis girl apparently got her signs mixed up. Perhaps influenced by her father's slide that featured the Stemmons sign. Her father, BTW, said the first shot occurred between his slide at Z133 and Z202. It made, he said, Mrs. Kennedy look from his side of the street to the opposite side.

Right. Another witness whose evidence must be wrong in order to cling to the SBT.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

Hickey in rear of Queen Mary begins to lean & look near the rear tyre at Z144 -- which supports shot-1 being at Z113.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/scearce.htm
HIDDEN IN PLAIN VIEW: The Zapruder Film and the Shot that Missed
By Kenneth R. Scearce
November 27th, 2007
Returning now to the actions in the early Zapruder frames, we can draw the following inferences:

•   The leftward head turns of JFK, Mrs. Kennedy, Hickey and Connally visible in the earliest Zapruder frames were almost exactly simultaneous. JFK begins to turn his head left at Z140. Mrs. Kennedy begins to turn her head left at Z142. Hickey begins to look left and downwards, starting at Z143/144. At Z149, Connally begins to turn his head left. JFK, Mrs. Kennedy, Hickey and Connally begin their leftward head movements within ½ second of each other. This simultaneity suggests that the leftward head turns of these four people were probably due to the same cause.

•   The Zapruder film shows that JFK, Connally and Mrs. Kennedy first turned their heads left before turning their heads right. When viewed dynamically, it is clear that the leftward and then rightward head turns of JFK, Connally and Mrs. Kennedy are related to each other. Their rightward head turns are a continuation of their leftward head turns a moment before. Looking only at their later rightwards head turns while ignoring their earlier, related leftward head turns—as the Myers/consensus timing does—results in misinterpretation of the evidence.

•   The 1st shot was fired from the right rear. The movements discussed herein were towards the left first, then towards the right. The sound dynamics in the assassination environment may explain this, or the explanation may be simply that the people in question were confused. If the 1st shot ricocheted off the metal traffic light arm and hit the pavement, it could have produced a smacking sound to the left of the limousine. Or, the explanation could be a multiplicity of these and other factors.

•   Viewed individually, each of these leftward head turns might by explainable for reasons other than gunshot reactions—for instance, as reactions to the crowd. But when considered collectively, the odds greatly diminish that these abrupt actions—occurring well before the consensus Z155–Z157 timing—are explainable innocuously. Hickey looks left and downwards at the pavement or at the tires the vehicles, not at the crowd. Connally’s left/right head swing is much too fast too have been a reaction to the crowd—it is obviously a reaction to severe stress.

•   The dramatic nature of the reactions (especially Connally’s) necessitates a threatening stimulus. The simultaneity of the reactions suggests a common cause. The timing of the beginning of these reactions in frames Z140–Z149 indicates, if we allow for naturalistic reaction time of 1–2 seconds, that the threatening stimulus occurred before Z133.

We have seen that Connally’s sudden left-then-right head turns refute the notion that the 1st first shot was fired at around Z155–Z157. It must have been fired earlier. The farther back in time and space the 1st shot was fired, the less chance there was that the tree could explain the fact that the shot missed. At some point farther back from the Z155–Z157 consensus timing, the tree simply cannot be the explanation. We can see this by extrapolating JFK’s position from the following Secret Service re-enactment photograph:

At this moment (Z140), which would allow for a ½ second head-turning reaction by Connally (much faster than natural, but about as generous as possible to Myers), the tree is not yet a plausible cause of a ricochet. The more naturalistic 1–2 second reaction time likewise rules out the tree as a cause.

Prior to the tree, only one other possible cause for a ricochet existed: the traffic light’s extension arm.

A 1st shot occurring just before Z133 not only fits with the film’s images and the physical evidence at the crime scene, it also corresponds well with the Holland/Rush metal traffic light arm ricochet theory—a theory that explains the missed shot, and some of the other thorniest issues about the assassination in general such as whether Oswald could have accomplished the feat alone, better than any other theory heretofore conceived.

At its core, the Myers/consensus timing stands or falls on the accuracy of Connally’s recollection of the direction in which he first turned his head after hearing the 1st shot. The film is the best evidence of this, not Connally.

#59 Brian Roselle
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,2792.50.html

https://sites.google.com/site/earlyzapruderfilmreactions/reactions-seen-early-in-zapruder-film

https://www.acsr.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/2020-Estimating-Occult-Timing-of-Surprise-Gunshot-Sounds-in-Silent-Film-via-Observed-Start-of-Human-Voluntary-Reactions-of-Concern-Roselle.pdf

https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,2792.40.html

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

The Governor said he turn to his right when he heard the first shot, not to his left. Mrs. Kennedy made her head turn more to the left because she was engaged with the taking of the photo by Robert Croft.

Hickey said he looked right, not to his left, in reaction to the first shot.

    "After a very short distance I heard a loud report which seemed like a firecracker.
     It appeared to come from my right and rear and seemed to me to be at ground
     level. I stood up and looked to my right and rear in an attempt to identify it."

Hickey doesn't say he looked to the pavement on his left.

Roselle & Scearce point out that Zapruder shows that Connally turned his head left (at Z150) & then turned his head right.

By the way, notice Kellerman (in passenger seat) looking facing turning pivoting hard right (koz he had heard JFK say my  god i have been hit)(by small lead fragments at Z113)(seen in xrays).

Yes Hickey turns right & looks back to the TSBD at say Z255 (Altgens-5 or something).
Yes Hickey didnt admit to checking the left tyre(s) at Z143/144. But Zapruder shows that he did turn & lean & look.
Anyhow R&S reckon that shot-1 was 0.5 sec before Z133, Holland says 1.5 sec, i said it was at Z113 which would make it 20 frames before, ie 1.1 sec. Anyhow, Holland & i i think agree exactly on where shot-1 was, it was where the signal arm was on the line from the Carcano to JFK's back.

I might as well add, that Connally at shot-2 at Z218 (the magic bullet) was not turned to his right (as is always wrongly depicted), he was halfway throo turning to his left when he was hit (he said).

I might as well add, Hickey was sitting up on 2 leather cases, the big one was for praps the AR15, the small one praps for ammo.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

In her book Tina Towner, page 7, she states: “ ...but there was not enough time before the first gunshot sounded—only a second or two, if that, after I stopped filming.”

I believe I have seen a video in which she said that the first shot sounded just about the time that she stopped filming. I don’t remember which video. But I will point it out if I come across it again.

Regardless, she didn’t time it with a stopwatch.

Yes i saw that footage too. Tina said that she stopped filming just before or just after the first shot. She was standing at that corner when talking. It wasnt long ago, some anniversary. At other times she has said that she stopped filming a couple of seconds before the shot, & even 4 seconds before. Anyhow i had a long look for that footage, but couldnt find it.

If my estimate of Z113 is correct for shot-1 then her T142 is at say Z118. Hence she stopped filming 15 Zapruder frames before Z133.
If Hollands Z106 is correct for shot-1 then Tina stopped filming at Z111, which is 22 frames before Z133.

The first shot was at T137, the slug hit the signal arm at T138, the sound hit Tina's ear at T139, the ear told Tina's brain at T141, & Tina stopped filming at T142.
So, she stopped filming at nearnuff the same time as the (sound of the) shot.

There should have been a camera jiggle at T139, due to the noise.
But Tina was holding tightly i guess.
And any jiggle would depend on aim/tilt of camera & on direction of shockwave i suppose.

There would have been a camera jiggle at say T143, due to a non-voluntary startle reaction.

And a camera jump at say T153 due to a voluntary fright reaction.

[Mark Tyler]

Your points are well taken.  The evidence does not support an first shot before Betzner's z186 photo.

However, while many witnesses recalled a shot pattern with two shots in rapid succession, the vast majority (over 40) specifically recalled the last two shots in rapid succession.  See my compilation of these witnesses.

What this evidence tells us is that there was only one shot before the midpoint between shots 1 and 3 with the first shot not being before z186 and the last shot at z312-3

Hi Andrew.  I agree with you, there were dozens of witnesses who referred to the final two shots being closer than the first two.  There is an important issue about whether the head shot was the last shot, and what exactly the gap was between the final two shots.  For example, some witnesses you mentioned in your analysis referred to a ratio of 2 to 1 between the gap lengths, so this could be 3 seconds and 1.5 seconds, or 6 seconds and 3 seconds (as suggested by Ralph Yarborough and Arnold Rowland respectively).  In the Zapruder film we see the gap between JFK being hit by the two shots is about 5-7 seconds depending on exactly when he was hit during Z190-Z220, which suggests that if Arnold Rowland was close to the truth then the final shot was fired around Z360-Z400 which went wild as the Presidential limo was accelerating out of danger at that point (maybe this was the bullet which hit Tague via the kerb on Main Street?).

By contrast we have other witnesses who say that the two shots fired were both fired so rapidly they were almost simultaneously fired at the time of the head shot (as suggested by George Hickey and Sam Holland).  It's hard to know the exact time frame, but it seems too rapid for a single bolt action gun to have been used (a pair of shots fired in less than 2-3 seconds probably means a second gunman was involved).

Clearly dozens of witnesses did not hear a shot after the head shot, but by contrast many definitely did hear a shot after the head shot (such as Charles Brehm and Emmett Hudson who were very close to the limo and saw the explosion we see at Z313).  In addition, some witnesses like Mary Moorman and Jean Hill heard two shots after the head shot, so I am fairly certain there was at least one shot well after what we see at Z313 in the Zapruder film.  I think many witnesses failed to register this final shot (or two) because they were running away in terror and were simply unaware of events due to the unfolding chaos (including a very loud siren being emitted from the Secret Service follow up car).

In summary, I find it hard to be 100% certain about whether there were 3 or more shots fired in total due to the very split witnesses.  However, I am 100% certain that there were only 3 bursts of gunfire as nobody reported a fourth burst.  Even AJ Millican who reported 8 shots grouped them into a pattern of 3-2-3.  Naturally lone nut believers say he was confused by echoes, and conspiracy believers say each burst had a pair of shots in it.  Without concrete physical evidence either way it feels rather moot, so I find it difficult to commit either way on the total number of shots fired.

[Bill Chapman]

There is no evidence of a second gunman @Dealey.