Oswald's shot-1 ricochet was at Z113 or Z105.

[Mark Tyler]

Your points are well taken.  The evidence does not support an first shot before Betzner's z186 photo.

However, while many witnesses recalled a shot pattern with two shots in rapid succession, the vast majority (over 40) specifically recalled the last two shots in rapid succession.  See my compilation of these witnesses.

What this evidence tells us is that there was only one shot before the midpoint between shots 1 and 3 with the first shot not being before z186 and the last shot at z312-3

Hi Andrew.  I agree with you, there were dozens of witnesses who referred to the final two shots being closer than the first two.  There is an important issue about whether the head shot was the last shot, and what exactly the gap was between the final two shots.  For example, some witnesses you mentioned in your analysis referred to a ratio of 2 to 1 between the gap lengths, so this could be 3 seconds and 1.5 seconds, or 6 seconds and 3 seconds (as suggested by Ralph Yarborough and Arnold Rowland respectively).  In the Zapruder film we see the gap between JFK being hit by the two shots is about 5-7 seconds depending on exactly when he was hit during Z190-Z220, which suggests that if Arnold Rowland was close to the truth then the final shot was fired around Z360-Z400 which went wild as the Presidential limo was accelerating out of danger at that point (maybe this was the bullet which hit Tague via the kerb on Main Street?).

By contrast we have other witnesses who say that the two shots fired were both fired so rapidly they were almost simultaneously fired at the time of the head shot (as suggested by George Hickey and Sam Holland).  It's hard to know the exact time frame, but it seems too rapid for a single bolt action gun to have been used (a pair of shots fired in less than 2-3 seconds probably means a second gunman was involved).

Clearly dozens of witnesses did not hear a shot after the head shot, but by contrast many definitely did hear a shot after the head shot (such as Charles Brehm and Emmett Hudson who were very close to the limo and saw the explosion we see at Z313).  In addition, some witnesses like Mary Moorman and Jean Hill heard two shots after the head shot, so I am fairly certain there was at least one shot well after what we see at Z313 in the Zapruder film.  I think many witnesses failed to register this final shot (or two) because they were running away in terror and were simply unaware of events due to the unfolding chaos (including a very loud siren being emitted from the Secret Service follow up car).

In summary, I find it hard to be 100% certain about whether there were 3 or more shots fired in total due to the very split witnesses.  However, I am 100% certain that there were only 3 bursts of gunfire as nobody reported a fourth burst.  Even AJ Millican who reported 8 shots grouped them into a pattern of 3-2-3.  Naturally lone nut believers say he was confused by echoes, and conspiracy believers say each burst had a pair of shots in it.  Without concrete physical evidence either way it feels rather moot, so I find it difficult to commit either way on the total number of shots fired.

[Bill Chapman]

There is no evidence of a second gunman @Dealey.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

For what it's worth, Hickey might have been propped against the cases, with his feet on the floor, up against the jump-seat.

Here is a pix of the cases.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

There is no evidence of a second gunman @Dealey.

We can start with 5 bits of evidence that there was a second gunman.
[1] What about the dent in the chrome trim – made by the second-last shot of Hickey's accidental auto burst – the last shot hitting JFK in the head.
[2] The dent shows that it was made by the direct hit of a soft-nosed slug (eg a hollow point).
[3] The hole in JFK's head shows that it was made by a soft nosed slug (eg a hollow point).
[4] The remnant slug exited JFKs head at an angle & cracked the windshield.
[5] A slug hit Main St near Tague, a fragment of pavement hit Tague in lower left cheek.
None of these 5 can be credibly explained as belonging to Oswald's shot-1 or shot-2.
Tague said that [5] wasnt at shot-1 nor shot-2.
And, Oswald fired only 2 shots.
Re [4], if Oswald fired a shot-3, it would had to have veered almost 20 deg in JFKs small head (to crack the windshield), impossible.
Re [5], if Oswald fired a shot-3, it is unlikely that a fragment of lead would (after exiting JFK's head) clear the windshield & hit Tague.
Re [4], the crack could not have been made when CE567 & CE569 or remnant slug ricocheted off the signal arm, koz the lean of the glass in the windshield angled up to approx the ricochet point on the signal arm, ie the glass was almost parallel to the needed traject  -- no, the crack was made by the remnant head-shot slug from the AR15 going parallel to the road, or nearly.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

Hi Andrew.  I agree with you, there were dozens of witnesses who referred to the final two shots being closer than the first two.  There is an important issue about whether the head shot was the last shot, and what exactly the gap was between the final two shots.  For example, some witnesses you mentioned in your analysis referred to a ratio of 2 to 1 between the gap lengths, so this could be 3 seconds and 1.5 seconds, or 6 seconds and 3 seconds (as suggested by Ralph Yarborough and Arnold Rowland respectively).  In the Zapruder film we see the gap between JFK being hit by the two shots is about 5-7 seconds depending on exactly when he was hit during Z190-Z220, which suggests that if Arnold Rowland was close to the truth then the final shot was fired around Z360-Z400 which went wild as the Presidential limo was accelerating out of danger at that point (maybe this was the bullet which hit Tague via the kerb on Main Street?).

By contrast we have other witnesses who say that the two shots fired were both fired so rapidly they were almost simultaneously fired at the time of the head shot (as suggested by George Hickey and Sam Holland).  It's hard to know the exact time frame, but it seems too rapid for a single bolt action gun to have been used (a pair of shots fired in less than 2-3 seconds probably means a second gunman was involved).

Clearly dozens of witnesses did not hear a shot after the head shot, but by contrast many definitely did hear a shot after the head shot (such as Charles Brehm and Emmett Hudson who were very close to the limo and saw the explosion we see at Z313).  In addition, some witnesses like Mary Moorman and Jean Hill heard two shots after the head shot, so I am fairly certain there was at least one shot well after what we see at Z313 in the Zapruder film.  I think many witnesses failed to register this final shot (or two) because they were running away in terror and were simply unaware of events due to the unfolding chaos (including a very loud siren being emitted from the Secret Service follow up car).

In summary, I find it hard to be 100% certain about whether there were 3 or more shots fired in total due to the very split witnesses.  However, I am 100% certain that there were only 3 bursts of gunfire as nobody reported a fourth burst.  Even AJ Millican who reported 8 shots grouped them into a pattern of 3-2-3.  Naturally lone nut believers say he was confused by echoes, and conspiracy believers say each burst had a pair of shots in it.  Without concrete physical evidence either way it feels rather moot, so I find it difficult to commit either way on the total number of shots fired.

Here are the timings for Oswald's shot-1 & shot-2 & for a faux shot-3.
87 ft is the horizontal dist scaled by me, 106 ft is the hypotenuse dist allowing for vertical dist estimated by me.

Oswald Shot ----------- hit at ------ fired at  ------ sound hit JFK at – Carcano = 2170 ft per sec.
1 --- 87 ft = 106 ft ----- Z113 ------ Z112.1 ---------- Z113.9 ----- camera runs at 18.3 frames per sec.
2 --- 184 ft = 197 ft---- Z218 ------- Z216.3 --------- Z219.6
3 --- 255 ft = 266 ft ---- Z313 -------- Z310.8 --------- Z315.2 -------- Oswald did not have a shot-3.
The time tween shot-1 & shot-2 is 104.2 frames, which is 5.7 sec. Holland reckoned that shot-1 was at Z106, which is an extra 7 frames, or 0.4 sec, which makes it 6.1 sec.
The time tween shot-2 & faux shot-3 is 94.5 frames, which is 5.2 sec.
Adding to 10.9 sec.

Here are the timings for Hickey's auto burst, based on there being 6 shots.
Hickey Shot ------------- hit at ------ fired at  ------ sound hit JFK at -------
6 ---- 26 ft---------------- Z313 -------- Z312.8 ---------- Z313.2 --- hit JFK in head & cracked windshield.
5 ---- AR15 = 3250 ft per sec------------ Z310.0 ---------- hit chrome trim on windshield.
4 ---- sound = 1100 ft per sec ----------- Z307.25 -------- went over the windshield, hit Elm St.
3 ---- probly 400 rpm= 6.67 rps --------- Z304.5 ---------- went over the windshield, hit Elm St.
2 ------------------------------------------- Z301.8 ----------- went over the windshield, hit Elm St.
1 ------------------------------------------- Z299.0 ---- probly hit Main St pavement & then kerb near Tague.

[Andrew Mason]

It's just that most of your "didn't see the President smile" witnesses were behind the President. So--from a defense attorney standpoint--you're "correct". Mary Woodward was off to the side and said the President didn't slump until the second shot.

No. She said:

• "Things are a little hazy from this point, but I don't believe anyone was hit by the first bullet.  The President and Mrs. Kennedy turned and looked around, as if they too didn't believe the noise was really coming from a gun.
  
  Then after a moment's pause there was another shot and I saw the President start slumping in the car.
  
  This was followed rapidly by another shot."

She qualified her statement by saying that things were hazy after the first shot and just stated what she believed rather than what she distinctly recalled seeing.  Besides you are cherry-picking her statement.  One thing she was very clear on was that the last two shots were closer together.  That necessarily means that JFK reacted to the first shot.  She also made it clear that the first shot occurred a second or two after they had engaged the President with their cheers as he passed by.  They were standing opposite JFK at about z190.

Since it was a little hazy in her mind, the slumping she referred to may have been the slump after the head shot.  As she said in her later statement to the FBI:
7Dec63 - FBI statement

• "Just as President and Mrs. Kennedy went by, they turned and waved at them.  Just a second or two later, she heard a loud noise.  At this point, it appeared to her that President and Mrs. Kennedy were about 100 feet from her.  There seemed to be a pause of a few seconds, and then there were two more loud noises which she suddenly realized were shots, and she saw President Kennedy fall over....
  

If you count a second or two after JFK turns (z161-165) toward Mary Woodward's group and he begins to wave (z173), that would put the first shot between z191 (z173+18) and z198 (161+37)

    "While it is true that a majority of ear-witnesses reported that the second and
     third shots were closer than the first and second, only 39% of respondents
     mentioned the spacing of the shots at all. Sixty-one percent didn’t mention
     (or were never asked about) the spacing of the shots. Of those who did,
     5% thought the first two were closer together, 25% thought the last two were
     closer together, and 9% though the shots were evenly spaced.
        One-quarter is hardly a meaningful percentage given the great pool of total
     ear-witnesses"

          — Dale K Myers (Dec20-2007)

I am not sure what qualifies Myers to provide statistics but if as many as 39% of ear witnesses specifically mentioned the shot spacing (my numbers are 61 out of 178) that just tells us that they may have thought other things were more important like the number of shots.  Many who did not state a pattern, nevertheless grouped the shots as one and then two more. Many may have recalled the number of shots precisely because they recalled it in two groups like that.  Myers should give us his numbers. I get 45 who  heard 1......2...3.  That may be 45 out of 178 total witnesses but it is 75% of those who recalled a pattern.

Hold on, cowboy. It's your interpretation of the evidence that I find wrong.

I am avoiding interpretation. I am taking their statements at face-value.  That is not an interpretation.

I've explained that to you countless times. If the witnesses arrived in Dealey Plaza anticipating they were about to hear three loud reports and to register in their minds the time span between each one, then that "shot pattern" consensus might have some footing. And aren't you saying the even-spacing and longer-pause-between-one-and-two witnesses are mistaken?

Look at their statements.  The ten who thought they were "about equally spaced" or the six who thought that they heard the reverse pattern were vague about it and/or very close to the events.

Why would anyone begin to take stock of the length of time between shots one and two, if most (it seems) thought the first shot was just a "backfire" or "firecracker"? No reason whatsoever to anticipate a second loud report. But when they heard the second loud report, naturally their cognizant functions heightened. They're weren't dumbstruck or anything; just when questioned later on, arrived at a perfectly understandable false memory. There's also the question of whether the siren was activated between shots two and three, which--with all the other stuff unfolding--could make the one-to-two shot span seem pretty ordinary and remote.

This just goes to show that it is you who is doing the interpretation and not taking the evidence at face value.  Your arguments are not evidence.

No. What I showed was empirical evidence that Linda Willis could not possible see the President when he was between her and the Stemmons sign. The empirical evidence shows she could see without obstruction the President when he was between her and the Thornton sign. I'm sorry this undermines your Pet Theory.

So Linda Willis was lying?  Why could she not see the President? She was standing up on a step.  She was 14 years old.

BTW, you're so anti-SBT, you might as well come out of the closet and be a conspiracy nut. 

That only makes sense IF the SBT was essential to the LN conclusion. It isn't.  It was the biggest mistake of the WC because the lack of evidence for it and the abundant conflicting evidence feeds CTs.  The fact is that a shot at z271 fits Oswald firing all three shots.  4.15 seconds and 2.3 seconds between shots.  And, as I have said many times Jerry, your ad hominem approach just makes your arguments look even weaker.

[Andrew Mason]

Hi Andrew.  I agree with you, there were dozens of witnesses who referred to the final two shots being closer than the first two.  There is an important issue about whether the head shot was the last shot, and what exactly the gap was between the final two shots.  For example, some witnesses you mentioned in your analysis referred to a ratio of 2 to 1 between the gap lengths, so this could be 3 seconds and 1.5 seconds, or 6 seconds and 3 seconds (as suggested by Ralph Yarborough and Arnold Rowland respectively).  In the Zapruder film we see the gap between JFK being hit by the two shots is about 5-7 seconds depending on exactly when he was hit during Z190-Z220, which suggests that if Arnold Rowland was close to the truth then the final shot was fired around Z360-Z400 which went wild as the Presidential limo was accelerating out of danger at that point (maybe this was the bullet which hit Tague via the kerb on Main Street?).

By contrast we have other witnesses who say that the two shots fired were both fired so rapidly they were almost simultaneously fired at the time of the head shot (as suggested by George Hickey and Sam Holland).  It's hard to know the exact time frame, but it seems too rapid for a single bolt action gun to have been used (a pair of shots fired in less than 2-3 seconds probably means a second gunman was involved).

Hickey was looking forward for the last two shots and definitely recalled the last shot striking JFK in the head.  He said that the second shot did not appear to hit JFK.  It appeared to miss.  All he saw was the hair on the right of JFK's head fly up at the time the second shot sounded.  Guess where that occurs?

Brehm does not necessarily describe the headshot as the second shot.  He said that JFK's hair flew up on the second shot.  That is what Hickey saw as well on the second shot. Brehm was never questioned by the WC. It is difficult to determine what he saw.  Hudson gave two statements shortly after the events (November 22 and 25, 1963) and gave a very different statement in his testimony in July 1964.  If you go by his first two statements as being the more accurate, he says that JFK slumped on the first shot and the last two shots were in rapid succession.  He does not say which of the shots hit the President in the head. He does not even mention a shot hitting the President in the head.

Clearly dozens of witnesses did not hear a shot after the head shot,

It was not a matter of not hearing a shot after the head shot.  It is a matter of hearing and/or seeing the head shot as the third of the three shots.  The Connallys, Greer, Hickey, Powers, Bennett, and McIntyre all recalled the head shot as the third shot.  Hill recalled it as the last of two shots that he recalled but believes, based on what other agents said, that there was a second shot while he was running beside the left front of the QM.

[Jerry Organ]

No.

I take it this is referring to: "said the President didn't slump until the second shot"

    "Things are a little hazy from this point, but I don’t believe anyone was hit with the
     first bullet. The President and Mrs. Kennedy turned and looked around, as if they,
     too, didn’t believe the noise was really coming from a gun.

     Then after a moment’s pause there was another shot and I saw the President start
     slumping in the car.

     This was followed rapidly by another shot."

She said:

• "Things are a little hazy from this point, but I don't believe anyone was hit by the first bullet.  The President and Mrs. Kennedy turned and looked around, as if they too didn't believe the noise was really coming from a gun.
  
  Then after a moment's pause there was another shot and I saw the President start slumping in the car.
  
  This was followed rapidly by another shot."

Besides you are cherry-picking her statement.

How am I cherry-picking her statement? I said Woodward said the President "slumped" only on the second shot. You just quoted her saying that. Are you saying that she lost all cognizant function when she said "Things a little hazy from this point"? Is that one of your ways of undermining a witness who doesn't support your Pet Theory.

Woodward said "My first reaction, and also my friends', was that as a joke someone had backfired their car. Apparently, the driver and occupants of the President's car had the same impression, because instead of speeding up, the car came almost to a halt." Woodward said her view to the President became (partially?) blocked by the QM and the agents (she claimed to have seen the head shot), and that she felt sick after the shooting. All those things could be the "hazy" she referred to.

Things becoming a little hazy is also when readers hear your Pet Theory's first shot entering Connally's thigh and he didn't sense it, and that he doesn't react to being shot until the Z270s when your Theory's second shot strikes him in the back.

One thing she was very clear on was that the last two shots were closer together.  That necessarily means that JFK reacted to the first shot.

Why?

She also made it clear that the first shot occurred after they had engaged the President with their cheers and after he passed by.  They were standing opposite JFK at about z190.

    "She stated she was watching President and Mrs. Kennedy closely, and all of her group
     cheered loudly as they went by. Just as President and Mrs. Kennedy went by, they turned
     and waved at them. Just a second or two later, she heard a loud noise. At this point, it
     appeared to her that President and Mrs. Kennedy probably were about one hundred feet
     from her."

          — FBI Interview with Mary E. Woodward, CE-2084

The nearest I can find that the President had already passed Woodward by is this "as they went by". They problem is it's not the same as they had passed by her. They could still be in front of her and still be in the process of going by her group. Then there's the "one hundred feet from her" claim. Her estimate doesn't work too well for the President being out from her (20 feet) and if the distance increases, it's not longer in the Z190-Z200s. Being able to see the Kennedys faces and head turns (I think she referring to the Z40s-to-Z170s), and the distance to the President at, say, Z160 (40 feet) fits better.

The slumping she referred to may have been the slump after the head shot.  As she said in her later statement to the FBI:
7Dec63 - FBI statement

• "Just as President and Mrs. Kennedy went by, they turned and waved at them.  Just a second or two later, she heard a loud noise.  At this point, it appeared to her that President and Mrs. Kennedy were about 100 feet from her.  There seemed to be a pause of a few seconds, and then there were two more loud noises which she suddenly realized were shots, and she saw President Kennedy fall over....
  

And I'm the cherry-picker?   

    "Then after a moment’s pause there was another shot and I saw the President
     start slumping in the car.

     This was followed rapidly by another shot."

I am not sure what qualifies Myers to provide statistics but if as many as 39% of ear witnesses specifically mentioned the shot spacing (my numbers are 61 out of 178) that just tells us that they may have thought other things were more important like the number of shots.  Many who did not state a pattern, nevertheless grouped the shots as one and then two more. Many may have recalled the number of shots precisely because they recalled it in two groups like that.  Myers should give us his numbers. I get 45 who  heard 1......2...3.  That may be 45 out of 178 total witnesses but it is 75% of those who recalled a pattern.I am avoiding interpretation. I am taking their statements at face-value.  That is not an interpretation.
Look at their statements.  The ten who thought they were "about equally spaced" or the six who thought that they heard the reverse pattern were vague about it and/or very close to the events.
This just goes to show that it is you who is doing the interpretation and not taking the evidence at face value.  Your arguments are not evidence.

For starters, Myers is not a fraud and cherry-picker. He (as did the Warren Commission) acknowledged the shot pattern was closer in the 2-3 range. But you're the only one making a Pet Theory of it. Witnesses are frequently mistaken.

So Linda Willis was lying?  Why could she not see the President? She was standing up on a step.  She was 14 years old.

I didn't say Linda Willis was "lying". What "step"? Geeze you're desperate. 

I showed you the empirical evidence that your analysis was problematic. How can Linda Willis in the Z190s and Z200s see the President is she has to look through taller bystanders on the sidewalk and two motorcycle policemen?

That only makes sense of the SBT was essential to the LN conclusion. It isn't.  It was the biggest mistake of the WC because the lack of evidence for it and the abundant conflicting evidence feeds CTs.  The fact is that a shot at z271 fits Oswald firing all three shots.  4.15 seconds and 2.3 seconds between shots.

The prominent LN theory has only one miss. Your Pet Theory has two. Both purported Z195ish and Z271 shots show absolutely no bullet strikes or reactions in the Zapruder film. The 3D alignments doesn't work for either.