Oswald's shot-1 ricochet was at Z113 or Z105.

[Andrew Mason]

To make my position clear Andrew:
I don't think there is anything definitive to support a second shot miss or a third shot miss and that's that.
Anything said about Hill was presented as pure speculation whilst exploring the pros and cons of a third shot miss.
Nowhere have I stated a firm opinion on this matter as I don't believe there is evidence definitive enough to determine it one way or the other.
The only reason I favour a third shot miss is because the last two shots are so close together and it's my opinion that the more likely of these last two shots to miss would be shot 3.
Shot 1 was a hit.
It makes sense to me that, after a pause to take aim, shot 2 would be a hit.
I get the impression the shooter took his time over shot 2 but really hurried shot 3. We know it was hurried because of the many reports that shot 3 followed extremely closely after shot 2.
Other than that 'hunch' I don't have much else. As you know, it's a piece of cake to get witness statements to support almost any scenario going and there is indeed solid witness evidence that shot 3 missed but I don't put the same stock in witness statements that you do.

A shot 2 miss with a headshot at shot 3 is still a total possibility, it just seems weird to miss the shot you've taken your time on and hit with the shot you've rushed.
I have always stated the limitations of the "First Shot" model I've presented and have never shied away from solid evidence or arguments regarding the shots taken that day. The assassin must surely have seen JFK's head explode and knew there was no need for another shot. This is a strong argument against a shot 3 miss.
The only leads to follow are Tague and the potential bullet strike near the manhole cover. I believe these things are connected and are the result of the shot that missed.

A very reasonable position, Dan.  Your candour is most refreshing.

But it seems to me that you are basing your preference for a third shot miss on something other than evidence.  You seem to think that the last two shots being close together means that the last shot would not be accurate.  But it could also be because he did not have to move the rifle between shots.  If you look at the position of the rifle to make the head shot when he pulled the trigger at z309 or so and compare it to the position of the rifle to strike JBC in the right armpit around z268 or so, there is virtually no difference in the rifle position.  JFK's head moves a bit to the right between those positions, that's all.

Oswald had the rifle resting on boxes of books and he had a strap holding the rifle steady.  He had to reposition the rifle between the first shot and the second because the angle to the car changed significantly. But not between z269 and z310:

[Dan O'meara]

A very reasonable position, Dan.  Your candour is most refreshing.

But it seems to me that you are basing your preference for a third shot miss on something other than evidence.  You seem to think that the last two shots being close together means that the last shot would not be accurate.  But it could also be because he did not have to move the rifle between shots.  If you look at the position of the rifle to make the head shot when he pulled the trigger at z309 or so and compare it to the position of the rifle to strike JBC in the right armpit around z268 or so, there is virtually no difference in the rifle position.  JFK's head moves a bit to the right between those positions, that's all.

Oswald had the rifle resting on boxes of books and he had a strap holding the rifle steady.  He had to reposition the rifle between the first shot and the second because the angle to the car changed significantly. But not between z269 and z310:

No-one is shot in the limo between z223 and z313.
Both men are shot through at z223 and the headshot occurs at z313.
It is my position (at the moment) that one shot missed the limo completely.
This shot struck near the manhole cover and a fragment went on to cause Tague's injury.
This is a wild miss.
This is why I prefer a third shot miss.

[Andrew Mason]

No-one is shot in the limo between z223 and z313.
Both men are shot through at z223 and the headshot occurs at z313.
It is my position (at the moment) that one shot missed the limo completely.
This shot struck near the manhole cover and a fragment went on to cause Tague's injury.
This is a wild miss.
This is why I prefer a third shot miss.

Ok. I understand your position.  You believe that the Connally's were mistaken in believing that the second shot struck JBC.

[Dan O'meara]

Ok. I understand your position.  You believe that the Connally's were mistaken in believing that the second shot struck JBC.

As you well know, this issue was covered extensively in "The First Shot" thread.
Yes, they were both mistaken.
The Z-Film proves it.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

Yes it is splitting hairs, but i definitely remember a youtube of Tina saying that she woznt sure whether she stopped filming just before the first shot or just after.  I think it woz in the context of talking to max Holland, in which case Tina might have said that just to make Max happy, i can understand that.
But my forensic analysis says that she heard shot1 at T141 & Tina stopped filming at T142.
Oswald shot at T137.
The slug hit at T138.
The sound hit at T139.
The ear part of Tina's brain told the main part of Tina's brain at T141.
Tina stopped filming at T142.

At 1:00 Tina says that the first shot was at about when she stopped filming.
But i still have not been able to find the footage where she says that she wasn’t sure whether the first shot was before or after she stopped filming.
Anyhow, i say that the first shot was at Z111, slug ricocheted at Z112, sound hit JFK at Z113.
Holland said that the first shot was at i think Z103.
Anyhow, me & Holland agree exactly re the pozzy of JFK at the first shot, his back was in line with the arm holding the overhead signals, ie the line from the Carcano to signal arm to JFK's back.
At 2:04 a guy says that there was a hole in the traffic signal -- no, that hole is a gap in the backboard -- the guy that owns that traffic signal (Christopher) has told us that there is no bullet hole.

[Walt Cakebread]

Oswald's shot-1 was at  Z113.
Below is a copy of my posting in my other thread that Oswald's shot-2 happened at Z218 based on Zapruder's startle reaction when he shook his camera at Z224, based on his startle reaction time of 3.7 frames. 

In the same way i can calculate that Oswald's shot-1 happened at Z129.8 based on Zapruder's mini-shake at Z134, based on the shake being due to the shock of the sound of the shot directly shaking the camera, based on the sound taking 4.2 frames to get from Oswald to Zapruder.  Actually, if the distance to JFK is say 88ft horizontally & 60ft vertically then that is 107ft, & if the slug moves at say 2200 fps or 120 ft per frame then the slug takes 0.9 frames.  Hence the slug was in the air at Z129.8 & hit the road at Z130.7.

Or if the mini-shake is due to Zapruder's startle reaction then i need to allow another  3.7 frames, which puts Oswald's shot-1 in the air at Z126.1 & it hits at Z127.0. 

When i say hits i mean it misses JFK & hits the signal arm & then it fragments.
(1) The remnant slug puts a non-round hole in the floor of the limo tween the jump seats (we have a photo) & hits the road.
(2) The copper jacket breaks into 2 pieces as is usual (it is made of 2 pieces joined together), giving us CE567 CE569 found in the car.
(3) Small lead fragments hit JFK in the back of his head (as seen on xrays). 
(4) Other larger lead fragments found in the limo might belong to Oswald's shot-1 or they might belong to Hickey's  AR15.

However i reckon that Oswald's shot-1 happened at Z113, not the above Z127 or Z131. 
This is based on the limo at Z133 being one car length past where it was when Oswald fired.  Before today i reckoned that Oswald's shot-1 was at Z123, based on the limo at Z133 being a half car length past, but today i had a closer look at photos etc & i saw that 1 full limo length past was the true situation.

More exactly, the difference is equal to the length of a painted white line on the roadway.  This is about 17ft.  I saw that the limo takes 19 frames to move the length of the stripe, ie from Z133 to Z152, & then the limo takes another 19 frames to reach the next painted stripe.  But if i assume that the limo was accelerating a little prior to Z133 i can round it off to say 20 frames.  Hence Oswald's shot-1 happened at Z113, meaning that it hit at Z113, but Oswald fired at Z112 (the slug being in the air for 0.9  frames).

The slugs hit at Z113 & then Z218 & then Z313 (an auto burst of 4 or 5 shots).

[PREVIOUSLY I SAID]…..Oswald's shot-2 was at  Z218.
Working backwards, Zapruder is startled at Z318 Z319 Z320, which is 5 frames after Hickey's 4 or 5 shots at Z313 Z314 Z315 Z316 Z317.  Zapruder is 84ft from Hickey, & the speed of sound is 343 m/s or 62ft per frame, so that takes 1.3 frames.  Deducting 1.3 from 5 gives a startle reaction time of 3.7 frames. 

Zapruder is startled at frames Z224 to Z229.  Deducting 3.7 from Z224 gives Z220.3.  Zapruder is 264 ft from Oswald, for which the  sound takes 4.2 frames.  Hence Oswald shot at Z216.1.  The slug moved at say 2200 fps which is 120 ft per frame, & Oswald is 197 ft from JFK, hence the slug takes  1.6 frames.  Adding 1.6 to Z216.1 gives Z217.7 as the time that JFK is hit, ie say Z218.

Z218 has always been my estimate based on Connally's testimony re Connally's turning movements.  He said he was turned/looking right, then turned to look over his left shoulder but only got halfway  there when the slug hit him.  That right to left turn can only have happened whilst Connally was hidden by the sign, & Z218 is dead center in that period.
Re Oswald's shot-1, this happened some time before Z133, Z133 being Zapruder's first frame of  that sequence.  We know where shot-1 happened, it happened at the signals, the shot ricocheting off the signal arm. But when is not known.  If it was a half limo length before Z133 then at 1 ft per frame that makes shot-1 at Z123. A full limo makes it Z113. [END OF QUOTE].

"Oswald's shot".....  Ridiculous!!    Since Lee Oswald was in the first floor lunchroom at the time of the shooting, the only "shooting" he might have done, was shooting the breeze with Jarman and Norman when they walked past the lunchroom. at 12:27.....

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

"Oswald's shot".....  Ridiculous!!    Since Lee Oswald was in the first floor lunchroom at the time of the shooting, the only "shooting" he might have done, was shooting the breeze with Jarman and Norman when they walked past the lunchroom. at 12:27.....

Oswald didnt take any lunch to work that day.
If Oswald was claiming that he was in the lunchroom at 12:27 then he would have meant the Domino (lunch) Room, not the Staff Lunch Room.
Either way neither lunch room works -- u cant walk past Oswald having lunch in the Domino Room, nor in the Staff Lunch Room -- unless the walker makes a detour to poke their head in to say see who is there (in which case they still dont walk past).

[Walt Cakebread]

Yes Jarman/Norman could have walked past outside that window, to or from the stairs on the footpath/sidewalk of Houston.
But why would they use Houston?

why would they use Houston?

Because they couldn't get through the crowd at the front door, and they were at the south east corner of the TSBD ( Houston & Elm)  So the quickest route to the 5th floor was by way of the sidewalk along the east side of the TSBD ( along Houston street)