The Media, the Virus and the "Lab Leak" Hypothesis

[Steve M. Galbraith]

The former NY Times Covid reporter explains why he didn't address the Lab Leak theories until recently:


https://donaldgmcneiljr1954.medium.com/how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-the-lab-leak-theory-f4f88446b04d

I think that's called an "admission against interest."

There were all kinds of flags indicating that the investigations - including the one by WHO - were shams. Even the head of WHO, not known for challenging Beijing, said it was not sufficient. And that was months ago. It was never, as I now see it, a far fetched theory only held by Qanon crackpots.

A side story to this is that we thought that opening up China to the rest of the world, to the west, would change its internal policies. That economic liberalization would create political liberalization. That hasn't worked. Instead of changing them, it's changed us. The government - the Party really - is using this opening up to push its interests and make, force really, changes in us instead.

[Jon Banks]

I think that's called an "admission against interest."

There were all kinds of flags indicating that the investigations - including the one by WHO - were shams. Even the head of WHO, not known for challenging Beijing, said it was not sufficient. And that was months ago. It was never, as I now see it, a far fetched theory only held by Qanon crackpots.

A side story to this is that we thought that opening up China to the rest of the world, to the west, would change its internal policies. That economic liberalization would create political liberalization. That hasn't worked. Instead of changing them, it's changed us. The government - the Party really - is using this opening up to push its interest and make changes in us instead.

The Lab Leak theory can't be ruled out until we know more about how or when the virus jumped from animals to humans. However, there's not a shred of solid evidence so far supporting that theory.

The circumstantial evidence is obvious. A lab that studies coronaviruses happens to be located where the first major outbreak happened. But despite a year and a half of Intelligence agencies and scientists looking into the virus' origins, there's no solid evidence that it escaped from a Lab. Also, history shows that where a new virus happens to be discovered isn't always where the virus originated. For example, the Spanish Flu was discovered by Spain but originated in either Kansas or Mexico. It seems plausible that Covid originated somewhere else in China before finding it's way to a major city like Wuhan. There's genetic evidence and circumstantial evidence backing the view that Wuhan isn't the first place where Covid existed. It's more a question of, was the virus brought to Wuhan and released accidentally by Virus researchers? Or did it get there via the Wet Markets where exotic wild animals are sold?

The CIA in 2020 told the Trump administration that they had no evidence that the Chinese believe it leaked from a lab. By that, I assume they mean, Chinese officials aren't saying anything privately that contradicts their claim that it didn't leak from one of their Bio-research Labs:
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Anthony Ruggiero, the head of the National Security Council’s bureau tracking weapons of mass destruction, expressed frustration during one videoconference in January that the C.I.A. was unable to get behind any theory of the outbreak’s origin. C.I.A. analysts responded that they simply did not have the evidence to support any one theory with high confidence at the time, according to people familiar with the conversation.

The C.I.A.’s judgment was based in part on the fact that no signs had emerged that the Chinese government believed the outbreak came from a lab. The Chinese government has vigorously denied that the virus leaked from a lab while pushing disinformation on its origins, including suggesting that the American military created it…

In a statement released earlier on Thursday, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said that the intelligence community “will continue to rigorously examine emerging information and intelligence to determine whether the outbreak began through contact with infected animals or if it was the result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan.”

Intelligence agencies, the statement said, concur “with the wide scientific consensus that the Covid-19 virus was not man-made or genetically modified.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/us/politics/trump-administration-intelligence-coronavirus-china.html

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The Intelligence community's assessments haven't changed. Biden's ODNI says they don't know when or how Covid first transmitted to humans.

There have been Lab Leaks in China in the recent past but we know about them and they all were contained (as far as we know). There's no evidence that the previous Lab Leaks of SARS led to a pandemic.

The Chinese government is very secretive most of the time so their secrecy alone shouldn't be reason to assume they know more about the origins of Covid than they've said publicly. And I agree that the Chinese government doesn't help matters by spreading their own theories about how the virus may have originated in the US. 

We can't ignore the fact that tensions between the US and China are as high as they've been since the 1970s. The Chinese likely don't believe the US is acting in good faith in the calls for more investigations.

It took 15 years or so for the Chinese to identify the source of the 2002 SARS outbreak and that outbreak had a connection to China's Wet Markets too. It could take as long or longer to find the source of the Covid-19 outbreak. Much of the research on that stuff happens in caves around remote parts of China. So while I find the Lab Leak theory to be plausible, it doesn't strike me as weird that the Chinese still don't know where the virus came from.

It's perfectly fine to speculate on the Lab Leak theory based on the circumstantial evidence. Lab leaks happen all over the world, including in the US and China. I agree that the mainstream media shouldn't have dismissed it entirely as a wacky conspiracy theory. Hopefully journalists and news editors learn lessons from this but I doubt they will...

[Steve M. Galbraith]

The Lab Leak theory can't be ruled out until we know more about how or when the virus jumped from animals to humans. However, there's not a shred of solid evidence so far supporting that theory.

The circumstantial evidence is obvious. A lab that studies coronaviruses happens to be located where the first major outbreak happened. But despite a year and a half of Intelligence agencies and scientists looking into the virus' origins, there's no solid evidence that it escaped from a Lab. Also, history shows that where a new virus happens to be discovered isn't always where the virus originated. For example, the Spanish Flu was discovered by Spain but originated in either Kansas or Mexico. It seems plausible that Covid originated somewhere else in China before finding it's way to a major city like Wuhan. There's genetic evidence and circumstantial evidence backing the view that Wuhan isn't the first place where Covid existed. It's more a question of, was the virus brought to Wuhan and released accidentally by Virus researchers? Or did it get there via the Wet Markets where exotic wild animals are sold?

The CIA in 2020 told the Trump administration that they had no evidence that the Chinese believe it leaked from a lab. By that, I assume they mean, Chinese officials aren't saying anything privately that contradicts their claim that it didn't leak from one of their Bio-research Labs:
-----------

Anthony Ruggiero, the head of the National Security Council’s bureau tracking weapons of mass destruction, expressed frustration during one videoconference in January that the C.I.A. was unable to get behind any theory of the outbreak’s origin. C.I.A. analysts responded that they simply did not have the evidence to support any one theory with high confidence at the time, according to people familiar with the conversation.

The C.I.A.’s judgment was based in part on the fact that no signs had emerged that the Chinese government believed the outbreak came from a lab. The Chinese government has vigorously denied that the virus leaked from a lab while pushing disinformation on its origins, including suggesting that the American military created it…

In a statement released earlier on Thursday, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said that the intelligence community “will continue to rigorously examine emerging information and intelligence to determine whether the outbreak began through contact with infected animals or if it was the result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan.”

Intelligence agencies, the statement said, concur “with the wide scientific consensus that the Covid-19 virus was not man-made or genetically modified.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/30/us/politics/trump-administration-intelligence-coronavirus-china.html

----------

The Intelligence community's assessments haven't changed. Biden's ODNI says they don't know when or how Covid first transmitted to humans.

There have been Lab Leaks in China in the recent past but we know about them and they all were contained (as far as we know). There's no evidence that the previous Lab Leaks of SARS led to a pandemic.

The Chinese government is very secretive most of the time so their secrecy alone shouldn't be reason to assume they know more about the origins of Covid than they've said publicly. And I agree that the Chinese government doesn't help matters by spreading their own theories about how the virus may have originated in the US. 

We can't ignore the fact that tensions between the US and China are as high as they've been since the 1970s. The Chinese likely don't believe the US is acting in good faith in the calls for more investigations.

It took 15 years or so for the Chinese to identify the source of the 2002 SARS outbreak and that outbreak had a connection to China's Wet Markets too. It could take as long or longer to find the source of the Covid-19 outbreak. Much of the research on that stuff happens in caves around remote parts of China. So while I find the Lab Leak theory to be plausible, it doesn't strike me as weird that the Chinese still don't know where the virus came from.

It's perfectly fine to speculate on the Lab Leak theory based on the circumstantial evidence. Lab leaks happen all over the world, including in the US and China. I agree that the mainstream media shouldn't have dismissed it entirely as a wacky conspiracy theory. Hopefully journalists and news editors learn lessons from this but I doubt they will...

We're now running the risk of over compensating and running too quickly with the lab leak theory. And relying on, in part, the same intelligence that gave us Iraqi WMDs. We need to be as skeptical, as you say, of the lab leak theory as we should be with the natural explanation. With the exception of a few usual suspects on Fox, the media have been generally calm. But it's early.

Reportedly, from the NY Times story, there's "a raft of still-unexamined evidence that required additional computer analysis that might shed light on the mystery." Swell, just swell. We're spending over $100 billion a year for this?

As to the origins: If it didn't come from a wet market and if the Chinese have been unable to find another animal that carries the virus, then what's the origin? And where did Patient Zero contract it and how? What's the most logical explanation at this point? Yes, this is why I'm not a scientist, trained to carefully weigh things and follow the scientific method of exhausting all possibilities. Maybe it was some person who had pet bats and got if from one of them.

In any case, back to my original post about how the media may be getting into bubbles and only considering sources that re-enforce their prejudices. And one of those prejudices was its dislike and opposition to all things Trump. That's unacceptable; or should be. 

[Jon Banks]

We're now running the risk of over compensating and running too quickly with the lab leak theory. And relying on, in part, the same intelligence that gave us Iraqi WMDs. We need to be as skeptical, as you say, of the lab leak theory as we should be with the natural explanation. With the exception of a few usual suspects on Fox, the media have been generally calm. But it's early.

Reportedly, from the NY Times story, there's "a raft of still-unexamined evidence that required additional computer analysis that might shed light on the mystery." Swell, just swell. We're spending over $100 billion a year for this?

As to the origins: If it didn't come from a wet market and if the Chinese have been unable to find another animal that carries the virus, then what's the origin? And where did Patient Zero contract it and how? What's the most logical explanation at this point? Yes, this is why I'm not a scientist, trained to carefully weigh things and follow the scientific method of exhausting all possibilities. Maybe it was some person who had pet bats and got if from one of them.

In any case, back to my original post about how the media may be getting into bubbles and only considering sources that re-enforce their prejudices. It certainly seemed to have happened here.

It happens often unfortunately.

The whole partisan Media Bubble thing became clear to me with the coverage of the Benghazi investigations. Fox News and rightwing outlets made a big deal of it while the rest of the media mostly ignored the investigations.

The coverage of the Trump-Russia stuff was another example of how the Bubbles lead to bad or misleading reporting. The Steele Dossier was given far too much coverage and there were a few big stories that were quickly debunked (ie Michael Cohen in Prague).

And I agree that some in the Media are over-correcting for the lack of coverage of the Lab Leak theory by talking about it with more frequency now even though there has been little to no new evidence since early last year.

[Steve M. Galbraith]

Isn't this really about Right-Wingers wanting protection for their ongoing, increasingly-hostile demeaning comments about blacks, ethics, women and the poor?

No, this is about my original post and Yglesias's observations about the lab leak theory. And then secondarily about the suppression of the Hunter Biden laptop story.

In both instances, much of the news media and the social media suppressed the stories. Or forbid people from even discussing it. Facebook banned people from even discussing the lab leak theory.

That's a problem. Just because it's the "bad guys" being targeted doesn't mean it's right. You guys on the left, not all (Jon sees the problem) but too many, are way too cavalier about this because it's not happening to your side. Just give it time; it will. And how will you oppose it after defending it now?

[Steve M. Galbraith]

A good little rule for people to consider when you propose suppressing the speech (or other liberties) of others: Would you want the "other side" to have the same ability or power to suppress the speech and liberties that you're espousing? That is, if you get to do "A" then the other side gets to do "A" too?

If the answer is, "Heck no!", then it's probably a wise choice to abandon the idea.

[Steve M. Galbraith]

Josh Rogin, a reporter (correction) columnist for the Washington Post and someone who has been, almost by himself, covering/reporting the "lab leak" theory from the beginning - from early 2020 - has a very tough twitter thread about the failure of his fellow reporters journalists on this story. He's not going to very popular with them.

Rogin:
#1: "All these reporters scrambling to defend their own records on the lab leak theory are exposing their own hypocrisy & ignoring their basic error. Just report the facts. Don’t act like its your job to tell us whats ok to think or talk about. Own up to it when you fail your readers."

#2: "Also, the lab leak theory didn’t change. It didn’t suddenly become credible. It didn’t jump from crazy to reasonable. The theory has always been the same. The people who got it wrong changed their minds. They are writing about themselves, with zero self awareness."

#3: "Most MSM reporters didn’t “ignore” the lab leak theory, they actively crapped all over it for over a year while pretending to be objective out of a toxic mix of confirmation bias, source bias (their scientist sources lied to them), group think, TDS and general incompetence."

I think this is a bit overly harsh especially #2. The evidence for this has changed, we have learned much more from last year. About the wet markets in particular. So this is, I think, not completely fair or accurate.

Link here: https://twitter.com/joshrogin/status/1398661632193089536

 

[Jon Banks]

The group that looks the worst in my opinion are the Fact-Checkers.

There were several Fact-checking articles that completely dismissed the Lab Leak theory.

Obviously, Facts can and do change but in this instance, the Facts didn’t change. It was a change in the political circumstances are what changed over the course of the last few months…