The lapel flip -- what did i miss?

[Michael T. Griffith]

The lapel flip is a red herring created by Gerald Posner. It is a meaningless event, if not a bogus one. David Wimp makes a strong case that the lapel flip is an optical illusion caused by reflected light: http://joliraja.com/LapelFlip/LapelFlapTD.htm.

If we assume the lapel flip is real, we should first and foremost recognize that it is nowhere near Connally's exit wound. The hole in Connally's jacket is nearly 1 foot from the lapel flip.

The lapel flip occurs in just 1/18th/second. Really? Since when can lapels flip up and down with such amazing speed?

If Connally's lapel ever did flip up and down, it would have done so because of the strong breeze that was intermittently gusting in Dealey Plaza during the shooting. But, again, how can a lapel flip up and down with such incredible speed? And even if it somehow managed to do so, the flip occurs nearly 12 inches from Connally's exit wound.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

The lapel flip is a red herring created by Gerald Posner. It is a meaningless event, if not a bogus one. David Wimp makes a strong case that the lapel flip is an optical illusion caused by reflected light: http://joliraja.com/LapelFlip/LapelFlapTD.htm.

If we assume the lapel flip is real, we should first and foremost recognize that it is nowhere near Connally's exit wound. The hole in Connally's jacket is nearly 1 foot from the lapel flip.

The lapel flip occurs in just 1/18th/second. Really? Since when can lapels flip up and down with such amazing speed?

If Connally's lapel ever did flip up and down, it would have done so because of the strong breeze that was intermittently gusting in Dealey Plaza during the shooting. But, again, how can a lapel flip up and down with such incredible speed? And even if it somehow managed to do so, the flip occurs nearly 12 inches from Connally's exit wound.

I found a copy of Lattimer's 1994 report re tests re Connally's lapel bulge flap flip at Z224.
http://jfk.hood.edu/Collection/Weisberg%20Subject%20Index%20Files/L%20Disk/Lattimer%20John%20Dr/Item%2006.pdf
Lattimer's tests show that the flip goes from say 20% at his Frame-06 to say 90% at Frame-07.
His frames are 30 fps.  The Zapruder frames are 18.3 fps.
I said that reactions show that Oswald's shot-2 was at i reckoned Z218.  However, the Zapruder footage shows that the lapel flip happened (ie attained 100% flip or nearly) between Z223 & Z224.
Therefore i need to change my estimate for Oswald's shot-2 being at Z218, it was at Z219, or a fraction later than Z219.
At Z219 & Z220 Connally was hidden by the road signage – hence the Zapruder footage missed showing the cloud of debris that caused the bulge & the flip.

Lattimer said that his tests confirmed that the shot was at Z224.
NNOOOOOOOOO.
His sequence clearly shows that his lapel flip happened at his Frame-07 (ie just before Frame-07), not at his Frame-00.
His first photo is Frame-minus-01 if u like – it merely shows his "Connally" test dummy etc before the shot.
His first frame of his shot sequence is what i call Frame-00 – it shows that the shot & the debris cloud have already happened.  What i call Frame-07 is the 8th frame of his shot sequence.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/192566201@N05/52543820000/in/dateposted-public/

https://i.postimg.cc/hvCw3MrK/latimer-4-Copy-2.jpg

Here are my latest estimates (done today) off Lattimer's 18 frames (actually 18 photos)(it was not a film)(camera took 30 pix/sec)(Lattimer's test dunn in 1994).
Its difficult to see what is what in Lattimer's 1994 frames (pix) – its partly guesswork.
The flap on the jacket on the 1994 dummy was much longer than the 1963 jacket, so i have divided the 1994 flap into the lower flap & the upper flap.
In the 1963 Zapruder frames the 1963 flap is in effect the upper flap in the 1994 frames.
I assumed that the 1963 slug hit Connally at Z220.0.  This accords with the max flip at Lattimer 07 (1994) happening at the same time as the flip in Z224 (1963).
We don’t see any debris cloud in the 1963 Zapruder frames – the exit outshoot on the 1963 jacket is hidden below the level of the 1963 limo door.
Frame … Time s … Bulge % … Lower/Upper [Flap Flip %] … Debris Cloud % … Zapruder Frame … Connally 1963 Flap.
…. 00 …. 0.0000 …. 000 ……….. 010 …. 000 ……………………………….. 075 ……………………. Z220.0 ….…. hidden by sign..
…. 01 …. 0.0333 …. 040 ………...010 …. 000 ……………………………….. 100 …………………... Z220.6 …….. hidden by sign..
…. 02 …. 0.0667 …. 070 ……….. 060 …. 010 ………………………………. 050 ……………………. Z221.2 … half hidden by sign..
…. 03 …. 0.1000 …. 100 ……….. 100 …. 010 ………………………………. 040 ……………………. Z221.8 … half hidden by sign..
…. 04 …. 0.1333 …. 100 …….... 100 …. 010 ………………………………. 030 ……………………. Z222.4 …….….... no flip ..
…. 05 …. 0.1667 …. 090 …….…. 100 …. 020 ……………………………... 010 ……………………. Z223.0 …….….... no flip ..
…. 06 …. 0.2000 …. 080 …….... 100 …. 050 ………………………………. 005 …………………….. Z223.7 …….….... no flip ..
…. 07 …. 0.2333 …. 070 ……….. 100 …. 100 …………………….………. 000 …………………….. Z224.3 …….. flipped ..
…. 08 …. 0.2667 …. 060 ……….. 100 …. 100 ………………………….…. 000 …………………….. Z224.9 …….. flipped ..
…. 09 …. 0.3000 …. 050 ……... 100 …. 100 …………………………….. 000 ……………….….…. Z225.4 …….. flipped ..
…. 10 …. 0.3333 …. 040 ……... 100 …. 080 …………………………….. 000 ……………….……. Z225.9 …….. flipped ..
…. 11 …. 0.3667 …. 030 ………. 100 …. 050 …………………………….. 000 ……………….…... Z226.8 …….. flipped ..
…. 12 …. 0.4000 …. 020 ………. 100 …. 030 ……………………………. 000 ……….…………... Z227.3 ……...….. blurred frame ..
…. 13 …. 0.4333 …. 020 ……... 080 …. 020 ……………………………... 000 ……….………….. Z227.9 ……...….. blurred frame..
…. 14 …. 0.4667 …. 010 ……... 050 …. 010 ……………………………... 000 …………….……. Z228.4 …….. hidden ..
…. 15 …. 0.5000 …. 010 ……... 030 …. 005 …………………….……….. 000 …………….….…. Z229.2 …….. hidden ..
…. 16 …. 0.5333 …. 000 ………. 020 …. 000 ……………….….…………. 000 …………….……. Z229.8 …….. hidden ..
…. 17 …. 0.5667 …. 000 ……... 010 …. 000 …………………..…………. 000 …………….……. Z2230.3 …….. hidden ..
…. …. …. 0.6000 …. ……. ……... …... …. …... …………………..…………. ..... …………….……. Z231.0 …….. hidden ..

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

I made a giff of Lattimer's 18 frames (1994 test).
The tie is out of there.
Lattimer's slug takes a big chunk out of the lapel (as can be seen). He didnt tell us that.
The 1994 exit outshoot is not in the correct place, it is too high & too close to center.
And, the silly 1994 lapel (the 1994 lapel is very long) & the silly 1994 jacket are unlike the (shortish) 1963 lapel & jacket, hence the 1994 tie escapes, & the 1994 lapel loozes a chunk (missing chunk is vizible in the photos).
So, koz of the (missing) chunk, Lattimer's 1994 lapel would (i think) have flipped more violently than the 1963 lapel (see lapel flip in Z224), & (i think) it would have flipped earlier than the 1963 lapel.
Which means that my estimate of Z218 for Oswald's shot-2 is looking better & better (ie rather than Lattimer's Z220).
Lattimer actually said that his test showed that the shot was at Z224, even tho as can be seen his 1994 test timings clearly tell us that the shot must have been at Z220, & (as i said) the 1994 flip would have been seen later if Lattimer's 1994 slug had missed the lapel (we know that the 1963 slug missed the lapel), which means that the shot at the supposed Z220 would in fact have been say Z219 (or even at my Z218).

I estimated that Oswald's shot-2 was at Z218, which is when JFK was hidden by the traffic sign, in fact Z218 is when JFK was halfway along the sign (ie at the midpoint of his disappearance).
My estimate of Z218 was based on the typical human reaction time that would give the JFK & Connally reactions seen in Zapruder frame Z224.
So, JFK's & Connally's 1963 reaction times were similar to the reaction time for Connally's 1963 jacket flap-flip (flap-flip happened at Z224) -- 6 Zapruder frames is 0.30 sec (Latimer said 1/3rd of a sec).



https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,2862.96.html

bump

[Andrew Mason]

I made a giff of Lattimer's 18 frames (1994 test).
The tie is out of there.
Lattimer's slug takes a big chunk out of the lapel (as can be seen). He didnt tell us that.
The 1994 exit outshoot is not in the correct place, it is too high & too close to center.
And, the silly 1994 lapel (the 1994 lapel is very long) & the silly 1994 jacket are unlike the (shortish) 1963 lapel & jacket, hence the 1994 tie escapes, & the 1994 lapel loozes a chunk (missing chunk is vizible in the photos).
So, koz of the (missing) chunk, Lattimer's 1994 lapel would (i think) have flipped more violently than the 1963 lapel (see lapel flip in Z224), & (i think) it would have flipped earlier than the 1963 lapel.
Which means that my estimate of Z218 for Oswald's shot-2 is looking better & better (ie rather than Lattimer's Z220).
Lattimer actually said that his test showed that the shot was at Z224, even tho as can be seen his 1994 test timings clearly tell us that the shot must have been at Z220, & (as i said) the 1994 flip would have been seen later if Lattimer's 1994 slug had missed the lapel (we know that the 1963 slug missed the lapel), which means that the shot at the supposed Z220 would in fact have been say Z219 (or even at my Z218).

I estimated that Oswald's shot-2 was at Z218, which is when JFK was hidden by the traffic sign, in fact Z218 is when JFK was halfway along the sign (ie at the midpoint of his disappearance).
My estimate of Z218 was based on the typical human reaction time that would give the JFK & Connally reactions seen in Zapruder frame Z224.
So, JFK's & Connally's 1963 reaction times were similar to the reaction time for Connally's 1963 jacket flap-flip (flap-flip happened at Z224) -- 6 Zapruder frames is 0.30 sec (Latimer said 1/3rd of a sec).

The shot through the jacket/torso model made by Lattimer looks nothing like what is seen in any of the Zapruder frames.   There is no sign of any movement over several frames as shown in the Latimer film. In the Zfilm the complete change occurs between one frame (z223-224):


Since, as you point out, the bullet passed through the right chest pocket:

the only way to lift the lapel would be to move the whole right side of the jacket outward until the lapel flips.  But if the shot was before z222 how can we explain the fact that the jacket moves in the opposite direction from z222-223:


The theory of Lattimer was that the jacket would move because of the blast of blood and tissue that we see in Latimer's film exploding from the chest.  Not only do we not see a similar effect in the zfilm but there is no evidence of such an explosion of blood and tissue on the clothing.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

The shot through the jacket/torso model made by Lattimer looks nothing like what is seen in any of the Zapruder frames.   There is no sign of any movement over several frames as shown in the Lattimer film. In the Zfilm the complete change occurs between one frame (z223-224):


Since, as you point out, the bullet passed through the right chest pocket:

the only way to lift the lapel would be to move the whole right side of the jacket outward until the lapel flips.  But if the shot was before z222 how can we explain the fact that the jacket moves in the opposite direction from z222-223:


The theory of Lattimer was that the jacket would move because of the blast of blood and tissue that we see in Latimer's film exploding from the chest.  Not only do we not see a similar effect in the zfilm but there is no evidence of such an explosion of blood and tissue on the clothing.

Yes, there is a small movement of the lapel outwards in Z222, i hadnt noticed.
And, yes, the lapel seems to have moved back inwards in Z223 (& then we have the full blown flip outwards in Z224).
I dont know how the upper lapel could flip out then in then out in the space of 3 frames.
However, my posting detailing the timings in Lattimer's 18 frames duz show the upper lapel & lower lapel doing different things. I will have to think about it.
Ok, i had a think. The lapel movement in Z222 is not a flip, the small lapel movement outwards is mainly a part of the jacket bulge,
there is zero or very little flip seen in Z222.
In Z223 the bulge is lesserer than in Z222, ie the bulge is reducing.
And in Z224 we have a sudden full blown proper flip (eversion) of the lapel.

In 1963 the outshoot was below the level of the side of the limo, hence the cloud of steam & debris could not be seen in Zapruder.
U are correct that the lapel flips between Z223 & Z224.
But u cant say that that is different to Lattimer. We cant see what the lapel duz after Z226 (frame too blurry)(lapel hidden by arm/hand).

I think that Lattimer did not tell us anything about how much debris was found inside shirt & inside jacket in 1994.
And i dont know how much debris was found in 1963.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

Here are my latest estimates (done today) off Lattimer's 18 frames (actually 18 photos)(it was not a film)(camera took 30 pix/sec)(Lattimer's test dunn in 1994).
Its difficult to see what is what in Lattimer's 1994 frames (pix) – its partly guesswork.
The flap on the jacket on the 1994 dummy was much longer than the 1963 jacket, so i have divided the 1994 flap into the lower flap & the upper flap.
In the 1963 Zapruder frames the 1963 flap is in effect the upper flap in the 1994 frames.
I assumed that the 1963 slug hit Connally at Z220.0.  This accords with the max flip at Lattimer 07 (1994) happening at the same time as the flip in Z224 (1963).
We don’t see any debris cloud in the 1963 Zapruder frames – the exit outshoot on the 1963 jacket is hidden below the level of the 1963 limo door.
Frame … Time s … Bulge % … Lower/Upper [Flap Flip %] … Debris Cloud % … Zapruder Frame … Connally 1963 Flap.
…. 00 …. 0.0000 …. 000 ……….. 010 …. 000 ……………………………….. 075 ……………………. Z220.0 ….…. hidden by sign..
…. 01 …. 0.0333 …. 040 ………...010 …. 000 ……………………………….. 100 …………………... Z220.6 …….. hidden by sign..
…. 02 …. 0.0667 …. 070 ……….. 060 …. 010 ………………………………. 050 ……………………. Z221.2 … half hidden by sign..
…. 03 …. 0.1000 …. 100 ……….. 100 …. 010 ………………………………. 040 ……………………. Z221.8 … half hidden by sign..
…. 04 …. 0.1333 …. 100 …….... 100 …. 010 ………………………………. 030 ……………………. Z222.4 …….….... no flip [edit 1dec2023][Andrew Mason has pointed out that there is a small flip or bulge in Z222].
…. 05 …. 0.1667 …. 090 …….…. 100 …. 020 ……………………………... 010 ……………………. Z223.0 …….….... no flip ..
…. 06 …. 0.2000 …. 080 …….... 100 …. 050 ………………………………. 005 …………………….. Z223.7 …….….... no flip ..
…. 07 …. 0.2333 …. 070 ……….. 100 …. 100 …………………….………. 000 …………………….. Z224.3 …….. flipped ..
…. 08 …. 0.2667 …. 060 ……….. 100 …. 100 ………………………….…. 000 …………………….. Z224.9 …….. flipped ..
…. 09 …. 0.3000 …. 050 ……... 100 …. 100 …………………………….. 000 ……………….….…. Z225.4 …….. flipped ..
…. 10 …. 0.3333 …. 040 ……... 100 …. 080 …………………………….. 000 ……………….……. Z225.9 …….. flipped ..
…. 11 …. 0.3667 …. 030 ………. 100 …. 050 …………………………….. 000 ……………….…... Z226.8 …….. flipped ..
…. 12 …. 0.4000 …. 020 ………. 100 …. 030 ……………………………. 000 ……….…………... Z227.3 ……...….. blurred frame ..
…. 13 …. 0.4333 …. 020 ……... 080 …. 020 ……………………………... 000 ……….………….. Z227.9 ……...….. blurred frame..
…. 14 …. 0.4667 …. 010 ……... 050 …. 010 ……………………………... 000 …………….……. Z228.4 …….. hidden ..
…. 15 …. 0.5000 …. 010 ……... 030 …. 005 …………………….……….. 000 …………….….…. Z229.2 …….. hidden ..
…. 16 …. 0.5333 …. 000 ………. 020 …. 000 ……………….….…………. 000 …………….……. Z229.8 …….. hidden ..
…. 17 …. 0.5667 …. 000 ……... 010 …. 000 …………………..…………. 000 …………….……. Z2230.3 …….. hidden ..
…. …. …. 0.6000 …. ……. ……... …... …. …... …………………..…………. ..... …………….……. Z231.0 …….. hidden ..

In the above analysis we can see that the max lapel flip happens at frame07 2 frames after the jacket bulge starts to diminish at frame05.
Latimer's frames are at 30 fps. So, 2 such Lattimer frames would have an interval of 1/15th of a sec. Which is similar to the interval (1/9th sec) between Z222 & Z224.
Mystery solved.
Z222 shows us mainly jacket bulge, plus a little bit of upper-lapel flip.
Z224 shows us mainly a large upper-lapel flip, plus some jacket bulge.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

Today i was looking for Carcano gelatin tests.
I found one web-site that said that a Carcano veers more (in gelatin) if it is a round-nose rather than a pointed-nose (Oswald's slugs were round-nose).
Another site said that a pointed-nose veers more (in say gelatin), koz the slug is tail heavy.
And that site said that a pointed-nose veered more if it had aluminium filler inside the point rather than lead filler (& it said that this use of aluminium filler goes back many years)(before 1963 i think).

There might have been a mention that a pointed-nose is less stable in the air (ie tumbles at long range), & especially if the point is filled with aluminium.

[John Mytton]

The shot through the jacket/torso model made by Lattimer looks nothing like what is seen in any of the Zapruder frames.   

C'mon Andrew, are you sure they're "nothing alike"?
I see the top part of Connally's jacket move forward and create the same shape as seen in Lattimer's recreation and then the after effects are obscured by Connally's raised arm.
Consider Connally's positioning as to where the camera is and also Connally was seated which makes the bottom of the jacket compress into your lap and thus applies differing forces to the jacket.
In addition look at the right side of Connally's white shirt collar and how the jacket when hit rises and momentarily hides the white part, just like Lattimers recreation.





JohnM