Z313 headshot -- Zapruder reacted to what he saw, not what he heard.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

Re the headshot at Z313.
Camera running at 18.3 frames/sec.

If Hickey fired, then he fired at Z312.85 (based on 26 ft at 3251 fps = 0.008 sec = 0.15 frames, which is deducted from Z313).
Sound hits Zapruder at Z313.35 (based on 90 ft at 1100 fps = 0.082 sec = 1.50 frames, which is added to Z312.85).
The shockwave jiggle would be at Z314 (but there is zero camera jiggle at Z314)(there is camera jiggle at Z318 & Z319).
Zapruder's startle reaction camera jiggle would be at say 234 millisec, which is 4.28 frames, which is added to Z313.35 to give a camera jiggle at Z317.63 (& there is indeed a large [ear] camera jiggle at Z318 & Z319).
Zapruder saw JFK's head explode at Z313 -- & a startle camera jiggle due to what he saw could be expected at Z317.28 frames (so this [eye] jiggle too accords with the jiggle at Z318 & Z319).
Zapruder's voluntary reaction jiggle would be at say 970 millisec, which is 17.75 frames, which is added to Z313.35 to give an [ear] camera jiggle at Z331.10, or is added to Z313 to give an [eye] camera jiggle at Z330.75.
There is indeed a camera jiggle at Z331 & Z332 (which accords a little better with the expectation for the [eye] jiggle rather than the [ear] jiggle).
And, we know that Hickey fired a plurality of shots, probly starting before Z300, hence we can safely say that Zapruder reacted to what he saw [eye], rather than what he heard [ear].

If Oswald fired a shot-3, then he fired at Z310.75 (based on 266 ft at 2170 fps = 0.123 sec = 2.25 frames, deducted from Z313).
Sound hits Zapruder at Z315.25 (based on 270 ft at 1100 fps = 0.245 sec = 4.50 frames, added to Z310.75).
The shockwave jiggle would be at Z316 (but there is zero camera jiggle at Z316).

We have earlier said that Hickey's shots did not result in a shockwave camera jiggle, & Hickey was much closer to Zapruder than was Oswald, hence the lack of a shockwave jiggle for any of Oswald's shots should not come as a surprize. And indeed there was no significant camera jiggle of any kind tween Z198 & Z318, including Oswald's shot-2 which is generally agreed to have happened tween Z218 & Z224.

Zapruder's startle reaction to an Oswald shot-3 camera jiggle would be at say 234 millisec, which is 4.28 frames, which is added to Z315.25 to give a camera jiggle at Z319.53 (which would give an [ear] startle camera jiggle at Z320)(but the large camera jiggle was at Z318 & Z319)(so, if Oswald did shoot a shot-3, then the sound of the shot did not result in an [ear] startle camera jiggle).
However if an Oswald shot-3 caused the head explosion at Z313 then that of course would explain the [eye] startle camera jiggle at Z318 & Z319 (but Oswald did not shoot a shot-3).

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

Here is my jiggle analysis, for the record, which i did for my other thread, in reply to Joe Elliot.

I found that the jiggles/blurring do not tell us whether Z218 (my estimate) or Z222 (your estimate) are the magic bullet.
Re the jiggles/blurring at Z227 & Z228, i found nothing significant.
I had a close look at Z001 to Z486.
I rated each frame as 0 or 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 for blur – for horizontal blur[H] , & for vertical blur [V].
There was significant blur (ie rated 2 or 3 or 4) in the following frames (ie ignoring any 0 or 1).
Z003 H2 V0.
Z013 H4 V0.   Z014 H2 V0.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
Z037 H3 V0.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
ZO53 H3 V0.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
Z058 H2 V0.
Z066 H4 V0.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
Z068 H3 V0.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
Z070 H2 V0.
Z082 H2 V1.
Z087 H3 V0.   Z088 H2 V0.   ZO89 H3 V1.   ZO90 H3 V1.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
Z104 H2 V0.
Z108 H2 V0.
Z132 H3 V0.   Probly due to the camera stopping.  This is the last frame of the first sequence.

………… Z133 H0 V0.  This is the first frame of the 2nd sequence.
Z134 H3 V0.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special. [edit][see next reply][a voluntary jiggle at Z134 suggests a shot at Z112]
......... Z135 H0 V0.
Z191 H2 V0.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special. But could suggest a shot at Z169.
Z197 H3 V0.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special. But could suggest a shot at Z175.
………… Z218 H0 V0.  This is where i reckon that JFK & Connally were hit (the magic bullet).
………… Z219 H0 V0.  Z220 H0 V0.  Z221 H0 V0. 
………… Z222 H1 V0.  This is where many reckon that JFK & Connally were hit.  If so then Oswald would have fired at Z219.8. The sound would reach Zapruder at Z224.3, ie there might be a shock jiggle at Z225, & a possible startle jiggle 5 frames later at Z230, & a possible voluntary reaction 18 frames later at Z243. But there is no significant jiggle of any kind until Z318.  Likewize there is no jiggle to support the magic bullet landing at my Z218.  The magic bullet simply did not result in a jiggle of any kind, ie zero shock jiggle, zero startle jiggle, zero voluntary jiggle. The jiggles do not tell us whether Z218 or Z222 are the magic bullet.
………… Z223 H0 V0.  Z224 H0 V0.   Z225 H0 V0.   Z226 H0 V0.   Z227 H0 V1.   Z228 H0 V0.   Z229 H0 V0.  Z230 H0 V0.
………… We have H0 V0 for the next 46 frames. The previous significant jiggle was at Z197. The next significant jiggle is at Z318.
………… Z313 H1 V0.   This frame shows the fatal headshot.
………… Z314 H0 V0.  This is where we could get a shock jiggle due to Hickey's AR15 shot at Z312.85.
......... Z315 H0 V0.
………… Z316 H0 V0.  This is where we could get a shock jiggle if Oswald fired a Carcano shot at Z310.80.
………… Z317 H0 V0.
Z318 H4 V4.   Z319 H3 V2. This is Zapruder's startle reaction to seeing the headshot at Z313 (delay=5 frames).
………… Z320 H1 V0.   Z321 H0 V0.   Z322 H0 V0.   Z323 H0 V0.   Z324 H1 V0.  Z325 H1 V0.  Z326 H0 V0.  Z327 H0 V0.  Z328 H0 V0.  Z329 H0 V0.  Z330 H0 V0.
Z331 H2 V1.   Z332 H2 V2. This is Zapruder's voluntary reaction  (delay=18 frames).
………… Z333 H0 V0.
Z360 H2 V0.   Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
Z363 H2 V3.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
Z385 H3 V3.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
Z417 H2 V1.  Probly not a true reaction to anything special.
The later frames up to the last frame Z486 are not worth rating.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

I said that the jiggle at Z134 was H3 V0.   And i said that this was probly not a true reaction to anything special.
But praps it was indeed a reaction to Oswald's shot-1.
I reckon  that Oswald's shot-1 was at Z113.
Hence Oswald fired at Z112.1 (106 ft at 2170 fps=0.049 sec=0.9 frame).
Zapruder heard at Z116.6 (270 ft at 1100 fps=0.245 sec = 4.5 frames).
Shock jiggle would be at Z117.
Startle reaction jiggle would be at Z122 (ie 5 frames after shock).
Voluntary reaction jiggle would be at Z135 (ie 18 frames after shock).
So, a jiggle at Z134 suggests that Oswald's shot-1 was at Z112.
However, i doubt that Zapruder would react to Oswald's shot-1. It was a long way away. And, it was well before Zapruder even started to film. But, there is no law saying that Zapruder could not have been startled after he started filming, by a bang that he heard before he started filming.
Hmmmmmm – interesting.
Holland said that Oswald's shot-1 was at Z106.

[Bill Chapman]

I said that the jiggle at Z134 was H3 V0.   And i said that this was probly not a true reaction to anything special.
But praps it was indeed a reaction to Oswald's shot-1.
I reckon  that Oswald's shot-1 was at Z113.
Hence Oswald fired at Z112.1 (106 ft at 2170 fps=0.049 sec=0.9 frame).
Zapruder heard at Z116.6 (270 ft at 1100 fps=0.245 sec = 4.5 frames).
Shock jiggle would be at Z117.
Startle reaction jiggle would be at Z122 (ie 5 frames after shock).
Voluntary reaction jiggle would be at Z135 (ie 18 frames after shock).
So, a jiggle at Z134 suggests that Oswald's shot-1 was at Z112.
However, i doubt that Zapruder would react to Oswald's shot-1. It was a long way away. And, it was well before Zapruder even started to film. But, there is no law saying that Zapruder could not have been startled after he started filming, by a bang that he heard before he started filming.
Hmmmmmm – interesting.
Holland said that Oswald's shot-1 was at Z106.

It was Zap's secretary who caused the startle effects.

NEWS FLASH
Dallas, Texas
August 10, 2020
Faked, planted & altered by Bill Chapman
Title inspired by 'Operation Mongoose'

OPERATION SITZGOOSE

MOVER & SHAKER DALLAS SECRETARY ADMITS TO BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR HERKY-JERKY MOVEMENTS OF EFFEMINATE DRESSMAKER ABRAHAM ZAPRUDER DURING HIS FAKED, PLANTED, OR ALTERED-IN-SOME-WAY JFK SNUFF FILM

In an interview from Bill Chapman's vivid imagination, Marilyn Sitzman, Zapruder's erstwhile secretary at his dressmaking facility in Dallas, revealed her kinkier side. 'Abraham had James Stewart Syndrome (vertigo) and asked me for support while he filmed', she began. 'He wanted to get up high enough in order to effect an advantageous view of what turned out to be a real nightmare on Elm Street. He had a great view of the singular action that lead to the womanizer being penetrated through-and-through along with the guv (who was almost snuffed himself). But a view not nearly as fine as that of Jackie, OH Lee, Alex Hidell (rhymes with Fidel) or Dirty Harvey.'

'Being a naughty little secretary, I just couldn't resist that butt-end view and so I gave him the 'one-finger-salute' a couple of times.'

'I got the idea from an iron we use in the trade to smooth out garments, called a 'goose', recalled Sitzman. She goes on to explain, 'An effective goosing includes the element of surprise. It is usually delivered at a moment the victim is not expecting it, and may be delivered in a public place but in such a manner that it is rarely witnessed by anyone other than the gooser and goosee'.

Informed later that Zapruder's unexpected jerky movements had caused a good deal of film disruption and CTer mind-blurring, Ms Sitzman replied 'My bad. But in the end it was a win-win: Abe got his snuff film, and—not being one to miss an opportunity—I went ahead and introduced a new dance craze called the 'Herky-Jerky'.

Copyright: Bill Chapman August 2020