Perception of Reality

[Charles Collins]

Every human being is susceptible to confirmation bias, as you point out.

When I began looking at the evidence of the shots in detail, I had already formed the conclusion based on the abundant evidence of Oswald's involvement that the WC conclusion was correct. I had assumed the SBT was correct but was of the view, like the WC, that it occurred on the first shot.  I started out with an open mind, however when I began, about 20 years ago, to examine the evidence in detail.  It quickly became apparent to me that the trajectory did not really work for the first shot SBT. And the conflict with Connally's evidence was difficult to explain. But my confirmation bias, that the SBT was likely correct, held.

 I then became aware that the SBT being touted was no longer the first shot SBT and that the SBT occurred on the second shot, the first shot having missed the entire car. But by this time I had become very familiar with the evidence that JFK had reacted to the first shot and for the 1.......2..3 shot sequence. The second shot SBT proponents had not even tried to deal with the abundant evidence that the first shot had struck JFK and that the last two shots were closer together. 

It was readily apparent that the second shot SBT was wrong.  But I was not yet prepared to abandon the first shot SBT. I still found Spector's argument that it must have struck JBC to be compelling.

It was only after really taking a hard look at the evidence and setting aside my confirmation bias that I was able to see that the SBT on the first or second shot was not correct and that a much simpler explanation that fit ALL the bodies of evidence emerged. The evidence in this case establishes that SBT is not needed to explain the correct LN conclusion: 3 shots, 3 hits, one shooter.

 So my entire approach has been one of trying to overcome confirmation bias and just look at the evidence.

Your approach appears to rely heavily on witness accounts that simply say they believe JFK reacted to the first shot.

My approach tries to be more precise. Here is just one example:

Victoria Adams spoke to detective James R. Leavelle of the DPD on 2/17/64. This is part of her statement: "When the President got in front of us I heard someone call him, and he turned. That is when I heard the first shot."

I reviewed the Tina Towner film and paid close attention to the actions of JFK. In the final few seconds of that film JFK does turn his head toward the TSBD and his right arm raises up and he waves just as the film ends. Just like Victoria Adams said.

Next I used Mark Tyler"s Motorcade 63 animation and paused it approximately where the end of Towner's film is indicated. Then I plotted the location of JFK in the backseat of the limo using the scale of Mark's animation. And placed a convertible with a male character in the backseat in that plotted location (relative to the southeast corner of the TSBD) in my 3-D computer model. Next I viewed the scene (using my 3-D model) as Victoria would have seen it from the fourth floor window. The results were just as Victoria said: right in front of her window and just before going behind the tree is the convertible with the male character. The front portion of the convertible is hidden from her view by the tree limbs but the rear seat and it's occupant are still visible.

Tina Towner has said that she stopped filming just before the first shot. Dale Myers calculated that Towner's film ends just before Zapruder began filming that portion of his film. And in the first portion of Zapruder's film JFK is seen lowering his right arm just after the wave that was begun at the end of Towner's film.

I asked for and received permission from Mark Tyler to post a couple of screenshots that will let you see some of the items I used in the proceedures I have just described.


The Towner film start position:





The Towner film end position:




The view (from the 3-D model 4th floor window) that Victoria Adams was watching the motorcade from:




The free 3-D program that I use has its limitations and mine as its user. But I have used the sniper's nest model to demonstrate several things and it has proven to be accurate. I still need to fine tune things like the dimensions of the tree, but this is close enough to show that Victoria Adams was accurate in her description of what she saw. In the book "The Girl on the Stairs" by Barry Ernest Victoria clarifies her earlier statements and specifically says that she heard the first shot while JFK was hidden from her view by the tree.

Anyway, this appears to me to be further evidence that the first shot happened in the vicinity of Z-133. I believe it probably happened just before Z-133.

If any others with 3-D computer models cares to take the time to verify this work I would greatly appreciate it.

The other folks here with 3-D models have confirmed my findings. Has anyone at all agreed with your theory?

[Jon Banks]

I believe it is possible that JFK was shot more than once in the head. Before it explodes... he nods noticeably and suddenly forward.

I agree

[Andrew Mason]

Your approach appears to rely heavily on witness accounts that simply say they believe JFK reacted to the first shot.

None of the witnesses said they "believe" he reacted to the first shot.  They describe what they saw:
The following people recalled that JFK reacted to the first shot :
1.   T.E. Moore (24 H 534, "President KENNEDY had reached the Thornton Freeway sign, a shot was fired and Mr. MOORE observed the President slumping forward in the Presidential car.")
2.   Nellie Connally (4 H 147. "I turned over my right shoulder and looked back, and saw the President as he had both hands at his neck.")
3.   David Powers (7 H 473: "I noticed then that the President moved quite far to his left after the shot from the extreme right hand side where he had been sitting. There was a second shot and Governor Connally disappeared from sight and then there was a third shot which took off the top of the President’s head")
4.   Gayle Newman (19 H 488: "President Kennedy kind of jumped like he was startled and covered his head with his hands and then raised up. After I heard the first shot, another shot sounded and Governor grabbed his chest and lay back on the seat of the car")
5.   William Newman (19 H 490 "The President jumped up in his seat, and it looked like what I thought was a firecracker had went off and I thought he had realized it.")
6.   John Chism (19 H 472 “When I saw the motorcade round the corner, the President was standing and waving to the crowd. And just as he got just about in front of me, he turned and waved at the crowd on this side of the street, the right side; at this point I heard what sounded like one shot, and I saw him, "The President," sit back in his seat and lean his head to his left side.”
7.   Faye Chism (19 H 471 “As the President was coming through, I heard this first shot, and the President fell to his left.”)
8.   James Altgens (7 H 520. He said his z254-5 photo was taken after first shot and before any other. It shows JFK reacting.)
9.   Abraham Zapruder (TV interview at 2:00 pm Nov. 22/63: " I heard a shot, and he slumped to the side, like this. Then I heard another shot or two, I couldn't say it was one or two"
10.   SA Clint Hill (2 H 138, Recalled only two shots. After the first: "I saw President Kennedy grab at himself and lurch forward and to the left". CE1024, 18 H 742: "I saw the President hunch forward and then slump to his left.").
11.   Linda Willis (7 H 498. “ Yes; I heard one. Then there was a little bit of time, and then there were two real fast bullets together. When the first one hit, well, the President turned from waving to the people, and he grabbed his throat, and he kind of slumped forward, and then I couldn’t tell where the second shot went.)
12.   SA George Hickey (CE1024, 18 H 761. Perhaps 2 or 3 seconds elapsed from the time I looked to the rear and then looked at the President. He was slumped forward and to his left, and was straightening up to an almost erect sitting position as I turned and looked. At the moment he was almost sitting erect I heard two reports which I thought were shots and that appeared to me completely different in sound than the first report and were in such rapid succession that there seemed to be practically no time element between them.”)
13.   SA Sam Kinney (CE1024, 18 H 731. “As we completed the left turn and on a short distance, there was a shot. At this time I glanced from the tailights of the President's car that I use for gaging distances for driving. I saw the President lean toward the left and appeared to have grabbed his chest with right hand. There was a second of pause and then two more shots were heard”).
14.   SA Emory Roberts (CE1024, 18 H 734. “12:30 p.m. First of three shots fired, at which time I saw the President lean toward Mrs. Kennedy. I do not know if it was the next shot or third shot that hit the President in the head, but I saw ,,,what appeared to be a small explosion on the right side of the President's head, saw blood, at which time the President fell further to his left.”).

15.   Cecil Ault (24 H 534. Viewing from court house on Houston. Reported to have seen JFK rise up in his seat after first shot.)
16.   Harold Norman (3 H 191. “but I know I heard a shot, and then after I heard the shot, well, it seems as though the President, you know, slumped or something,”)
17.   Malcolm Summers (Affidavit, 19 H 500 “The President's car had just come up in front of me when I heard a shot and saw the President slump down in the car and heard Mrs. Kennedy say, "Oh, no", then a second shot and then I hit the ground as I realized these were shots.”)
18.   Mary Moorman (Affidavit, 19 H 487, “As I snapped the picture of President Kennedy, I heard a shot ring out. President Kennedy kind of slumped over.”
19.   Jean Newman (Affidavit, 19 H 489, “The motorcade had just passed me when I heard that I thought was a firecracker at first, and the President had just passed me, because after he had just passed, there was a loud report, it just scared me, and I noticed that the President jumped, he sort of ducked his head down and I thought at the time that it probably scared him, too, just like it did me, because he flinched, like he jumped. I saw him put his elbows like this, with his hands on his chest.”)
20.   Charles Brehm (Dallas Times Herald statement, Nov. 22, 1963 “The witness Brehm was shaking uncontrollably as he further described the shooting. ‘The first shot must not have been too solid, because he just slumped’.”)

21.   B. J. Martin (Dallas police officer on motorcycle to the left and rear of the President’s car) (Apr. 3, 1964:  6 H 291):
Mr. BALL. Did you take any notice of the President after the first shot?
Mr. MARTIN. Yes, sir; I looked at the President after I heard the shot and he was leaning forward-I could see the left side of his face. At the time he had no expression on his face.
Mr. BALL. Then, did you hear some more shots?
Mr. MARTIN. Yes, sir.
Mr. BALL. How many?
Mr. MARTIN. Two more shots.
22.   Pierce Allman, WFAA interview 11/22/63:

in which he states: “and right after Mr. Kennedy passed in front of me I heard one big explosion … I looked and saw the President, I thought, duck. Evidently he was slumping at the time”.

My approach tries to be more precise. Here is just one example:

First of all, you are relying on witnesses.  Tina Turner Towner (and Victoria Adams).   

Second, you have to get an accurate account of all the statements of that witness and figure out what the witness meant (and avoid using confirmation bias).  In this case, an alleged statement of Tina Turner Towner that the first shot occurred "just after" she stopped filming is not very helpful.  You don't even provide a source for that.  But if she said that, what did she mean?  How many seconds?  If she meant four to six seconds, as she said in her statement to the Sixth Floor Museum, then that does not fit very well with the theory of a missed first shot.  In her statement to a teen magazine in 1968, as quoted by Richard Trask in Pictures of the Pain, Tina Turner Towner said had had just stopped filming and "now I was beginning to leave when I heard the sky fall in - the loudest crack of a rifle that I had ever heard".  So, if she had stopped filming and was putting away her camera or something like that preparing to leave, that would take a few seconds. 

Finally, the statement has to be compared to other witnesses.  Croft said he took his photo (z162) BEFORE the first shot.  He said he actually wound his camera and took another photo at the very instant of the first shot which did not expose properly (see Trask, POTP, p. 221-229).  Betzner said he took his z186 photo BEFORE the first shot.  He said he had started to wind his camera to take another when the first shot occurred.  Hughes said he stopped filming just before the first shot.  The section of the film that he was speaking about ends at about z182. Witnesses in the motorcade provided statements as to where their car was at the time of the first shot.  They are all remarkably consistent and fit a time after z182 (when the VP car is last seen, it has not finished the turn onto Elm, which occupants said had occurred before the first shot sounded).

The other folks here with 3-D models have confirmed my findings. Has anyone at all agreed with your theory?

I am not sure how a 3D model confirms an early first shot. It merely confirms the bias of the person doing the 3D work.  I don't really have a "theory". I am just pointing out that the evidence says that JFK was hit by the first shot, JBC by the second and JFK hit in the head on the third, that the shot pattern was 1.....2..3 with the last two shots in rapid succession.  My theory is that the SBT is wrong because it conflicts with that evidence.  Lots of people agree with that.

[Charles Collins]

First of all, you are relying on witnesses.  Tina Turner (and Victoria Adams).   

Second, you have to get an accurate account of all the statements of that witness and figure out what the witness meant (and avoid using confirmation bias).  In this case, an alleged statement of Tina Turner that the first shot occurred "just after" she stopped filming is not very helpful.  You don't even provide a source for that.  But if she said that, what did she mean?  How many seconds?  If she meant four to six seconds, as she said in her statement to the Sixth Floor Museum, then that does not fit very well with the theory of a missed first shot.  In her statement to a teen magazine in 1968, as quoted by Richard Trask in Pictures of the Pain, Tina Turner said had had just stopped filming and "now I was beginning to leave when I heard the sky fall in - the loudest crack of a rifle that I had ever heard".  So, if she had stopped filming and was putting away her camera or something like that preparing to leave, that would take a few seconds. 

Finally, the statement has to be compared to other witnesses.  Croft said he took his photo (z162) BEFORE the first shot.  He said he actually wound his camera and took another photo at the very instant of the first shot which did not expose properly (see Trask, POTP, p. 221-229).  Betzner said he took his z186 photo BEFORE the first shot.  He said he had started to wind his camera to take another when the first shot occurred.  Hughes said he stopped filming just before the first shot.  The section of the film that he was speaking about ends at about z182. Witnesses in the motorcade provided statements as to where their car was at the time of the first shot.  They are all remarkably consistent and fit a time after z182 (when the VP car is last seen, it has not finished the turn onto Elm, which occupants said had occurred before the first shot sounded).

First of all, you are relying on witnesses.  Tina Turner (and Victoria Adams).

Yes, I am relying on witnesses. However, their accounts can be related to specific points in time that coincide with the documented photographic record timings. By the way it is Towner (not Turner).

On page 7 of her book: Tina Towner - My story as the youngest photographer at the Kennedy assassination, Tina writes:

… but there was not enough time before the first gunshot sounded - only a second or two, if that, after I stopped filming.

(Emphasis added.)

I have seen where she said something like: “The first shot occurred right about the same time that I stopped filming”. But I don’t remember exactly where I saw that. I think that it was one of her earlier statements though.

[Andrew Mason]

First of all, you are relying on witnesses.  Tina Turner (and Victoria Adams).

Yes, I am relying on witnesses. However, their accounts can be related to specific points in time that coincide with the documented photographic record timings. By the way it is Towner (not Turner).

On page 7 of her book: Tina Towner - My story as the youngest photographer at the Kennedy assassination, Tina writes:

… but there was not enough time before the first gunshot sounded - only a second or two, if that, after I stopped filming.

(Emphasis added.)

I have seen where she said something like: “The first shot occurred right about the same time that I stopped filming”. But I don’t remember exactly where I saw that. I think that it was one of her earlier statements though.

But you are relying heavily on uncorroborated estimate of a 13 year old girl as to the number of seconds she recalled between the time she stopped filming and the time of the first shot.  It is also important to note that her estimates varied between 1 and 6 seconds.  Is it not more reliable to look at witnesses who recalled whether the first shot was before or after an event that they can document? 

[Charles Collins]

But you are relying heavily on uncorroborated estimate of a 13 year old girl as to the number of seconds she recalled between the time she stopped filming and the time of the first shot.  It is also important to note that her estimates varied between 1 and 6 seconds.  Is it not more reliable to look at witnesses who recalled whether the first shot was before or after an event that they can document?

Our memories can be faulty. However, we tend to remember things by association. And when multiple people’s memories agree about the timing, they tend to corroborate each other. In my opinion, the accounts of Tina Towner, Victoria Adams, Howard Brenner, Amos Euins, and some others point to the first shot occurring just before the Zapruder film segment begins. The actions of the limo occupants, and some others immediately after the Zapruder film segment begins appears to show them looking around after being surprised by a loud noise. Tina Towner says in her book that she studied the Dorman film which briefly shows her and her parents just after she stopped filming. And that her father and some other witnesses appear to suddenly look around as if looking for the source of the loud noise. I haven’t studied the Dorman film that closely to confirm what she says. She had access to the original film (I believe) at the Sixth Floor Museum when she noted those actions. And I would assume that the quality of the images she had access to was higher than what we see in the online versions.

[Andrew Mason]

Our memories can be faulty. However, we tend to remember things by association.

Right. Like Croft, Betzner and Hughes remembering that their film exposures occurred BEFORE the first shot.

And when multiple people’s memories agree about the timing, they tend to corroborate each other. In my opinion, the accounts of Tina Towner, Victoria Adams, Howard Brenner, Amos Euins, and some others point to the first shot occurring just before the Zapruder film segment begins.

Charles, you are simply confirming your own bias.  All Victoria Adams said in her first statement was that she heard 3 shots when the motorcade was passing.  She said her view was obstructed at the time and in her WC testimony she said her view of the President's car was obstructed by a tree at the time of the first shot. Since she said she was looking out one of the two windows in the third set of windows from the east side* this means that the oak tree (the only possible obstruction) was between the third set of windows from the east corner (4th floor) and the President's car. In other words, it was some distance along Elm St., not anywhere close to z133:


*Dorothy Garner confirms this:  "I know this window to be the fifth window from the east end of the building. I recall that Mrs. Elsie Dorman was sitting next to me at that time looking out the sixth window and that Victoria Adams and Sandra Styles were both standing next to Mrs. Dorman and myself looking out the fifth and sixth windows".

The actions of the limo occupants, and some others immediately after the Zapruder film segment begins appears to show them looking around after being surprised by a loud noise.

Fine. That is what Secret Service agents are supposed to do normally. So that means absolutely nothing. But they are all consistent in saying that the first shot occurred when 1. the VP car had just finished the turn (it is still turning when last seen at z180). 2. the VP security car was about to finish the turn (it is pointing north at z180):

As far as JFK, Jacqueline and JBC looking, that fits precisely with what Mary Woodward said: she said they shouted and JFK and Jackie turned toward them and the President  waved.  She said they were the last people that the President acknowledged before the first "horrible ear-shattering noise".

[Charles Collins]

Newman is a two-shot witness ("I just heard two shots." "cannot definitely state that additional shot or shots were not fired"). She is describing the jump-and-duck shot occurring when "the motorcade had just passed" and before the head shot. The motorcade (ie: limousine) was still in front of Newman at Z193. Much of the front of the car was pass her position by Z222.

One aspect of the accounts that claim that JFK was “right in front of them” that seems ambiguous to me is that that perception depends upon which direction their heads are facing at that moment. In other words, what they describe as right in front of them could be quite different from what we think is right in front of them. That is why the accounts that specify a stationary object are in my opinion more accurate.