The Dead-Letter Package

[Alan Ford]

Why would Oswald care?  He was already aware that the FBI had visited the Paine home.  He felt comfortable receiving his pro-commie literature.  Why suddenly be concerned about postal surveillance?  He already had his guns.  I think it was most likely a hoax.  Probably some anti-JFK type joking about Oswald needing more bags to continue the good work.

A joker who knows Mr Oswald's handwriting well enough to fool seasoned researchers into thinking he wrote the address?

It doesn't make much sense for Oswald to address this to a non-existent address. If he learns on Monday or Tuesday that JFK is passing the building, then there would be a remote possibility he considered mailing the bag there instead of transporting it himself but there would be no guarantee that it would arrive by Friday.  And why do a test run to a different address with so little time?   

How do you know it wasn't sent earlier than that?

[Richard Smith]

A joker who knows Mr Oswald's handwriting well enough to fool seasoned researchers into thinking he wrote the address?

How do you know it wasn't sent earlier than that?

I don't know when it was sent.  No one does.   All we can do is apply logic and inference to the situation.  Maybe there is some reason for Oswald to have sent it but I can't think of anything that makes sense.  Oswald already knew the FBI was watching him and aware of his families presence at the Paine home.  He apparently didn't care whether they knew he was receiving commie literature in the mail.  There is certainly no obvious reason for any conspirator to have done this.  It seems pointless.  If it is pointless, then that means Oswald or a conspirator likely didn't do it.  That leaves some type of hoax.  I don't rule out that Oswald had some reason that isn't apparent, though.  He was a nut who read spy novels. 

[Alan Ford]

I don't know when it was sent.  No one does.   All we can do is apply logic and inference to the situation.  Maybe there is some reason for Oswald to have sent it but I can't think of anything that makes sense.  Oswald already knew the FBI was watching him and aware of his families presence at the Paine home.  He apparently didn't care whether they knew he was receiving commie literature in the mail.  There is certainly no obvious reason for any conspirator to have done this.  It seems pointless.  If it is pointless, then that means Oswald or a conspirator likely didn't do it. That leaves some type of hoax.  I don't rule out that Oswald had some reason that isn't apparent, though.  He was a nut who read spy novels.

The LHO-Did-It part of you wants this to be Mr Oswald's doing; the LNer in you worries about the time factor (foreknowledge of motorcade route). So you play it down, without however being able to explain it away.

Make no mistake: IF this handwriting is Mr Oswald's, then we would appear to have him sending a bag made of heavy brown paper to himself at a fake address. Given subsequent events & allegations, one need hardly spell out why this would be of potentially huge significance

[Richard Smith]

The LHO-Did-It part of you wants this to be Mr Oswald's doing; the LNer in you worries about the time factor (foreknowledge of motorcade route). So you play it down, without however being able to explain it away.

Make no mistake: IF this handwriting is Mr Oswald's, then we would appear to have him sending a bag made of heavy brown paper to himself at a fake address. Given subsequent events & allegations, one need hardly spell out why this would be of potentially huge significance

I actually expressed skepticism that Oswald did this as there seemed no point.  I don't see how this package moves the needle from either a LN or CT perspective.  There is no obvious reason for anyone to send a package to a nonexistent address.  What significance do you attribute to it?  Why put anything inside the package at all if the purpose was some attempt to determine if his mail was being monitored?  The bag inside was too short for his rifle or even your imaginary curtain rods.  And Oswald already knew the FBI was aware of his connection to the Paine home.  They had even been there.  The handwriting does look similar to his but absent any reasonable explanation for Oswald doing this (and you have provided none) that leaves the possibility someone did it as a hoax after the assassination.

[Alan Ford]

I actually expressed skepticism that Oswald did this as there seemed no point.  I don't see how this package moves the needle from either a LN or CT perspective.  There is no obvious reason for anyone to send a package to a nonexistent address.  What significance do you attribute to it?  Why put anything inside the package at all if the purpose was some attempt to determine if his mail was being monitored?

To see if a bulky package addressed to him @ a non-existent address would result in a notification at the Paine home. A test of whether he could post another, rifle-sized heavy brown paper bag without that being flagged to the authorities so close to the Presidential visit

The bag inside was too short for his rifle

So? If it was a dry run, then that's immaterial

or even your imaginary curtain rods.

Off-topic, but I'll bite: there's nothing imaginary about the two curtain rods submitted for testing for Mr Oswald's fingerprints 8 days before two curtain rods were taken from the Paine garage. The only thing imaginary is the idea that you and your friends have offered a rational explanation for this documented fact

And Oswald already knew the FBI was aware of his connection to the Paine home.  They had even been there.

So what? The dry run I am postulating would have been to see if the authorities would take notice of a bulky parcel with his name on it

The handwriting does look similar to his but absent any reasonable explanation for Oswald doing this (and you have provided none) that leaves the possibility someone did it as a hoax after the assassination.

Well then you have a random hoaxer who knows to write in a handwriting style that will fool seasoned researchers for many years to come. Is that a reasonable explanation?

[Richard Smith]

To see if a bulky package addressed to him @ a non-existent address would result in a notification at the Paine home. A test of whether he could post another, rifle-sized heavy brown paper bag without that being flagged to the authorities so close to the Presidential visit

Oswald puts his own name on a package that he addresses to a non-existent address to determine if doing so will trigger a notification to the Paine home?  Why would he care?  If he was concerned about the authorities monitoring his mail and finding a large brown paper bag in a package associated with him, why test that theory by sending a package with a large brown paper bag in it.  That makes no sense. 

[Alan Ford]

Oswald puts his own name on a package that he addresses to a non-existent address to determine if doing so will trigger a notification to the Paine home?  Why would he care?  If he was concerned about the authorities monitoring his mail and finding a large brown paper bag in a package associated with him, why test that theory by sending a package with a large brown paper bag in it.

This is precisely what would explain the use of an 18" bag: he is concerned about the authorities monitoring his mail and finding an eyebrow-raising rifle-length brown paper bag in a package associated with him, so he safely tests that theory by sending a bulky package with a non-eyebrow-raising non-rifle-length brown paper bag in it

[Richard Smith]

This is precisely what would explain the use of an 18" bag: he is concerned about the authorities monitoring his mail and finding an eyebrow-raising rifle-length brown paper bag in a package associated with him, so he safely tests that theory by sending a bulky package with a non-eyebrow-raising non-rifle-length brown paper bag in it

My head is spinning.  Oswald is concerned about someone monitoring his mail to discover a large paper bag.  And he tests this by sending a smaller brown paper bag to a non-existent address?  Even if someone discovered a large bag in his mail - so what?  Why would they conclude it was going to be used to carry a rifle to assassinate the president?  All of this when he has the obvious solution of just taking the bag there himself when he goes (which he did)?  Why mail it?