Physical evidence of the first shot (miss)

[Charles Collins]

Stavis Ellis, motorcycle escort cop with the DPD, described his sighting of where the first shot hit in his interview with Larry Sneed in Larry’s book “No More Silence”. Ellis’ position was just ahead of the lead car, which was just ahead of the JFK limo. Here’s the relevant passage:

We came west on Main Street to Houston Street and took a right, facing right into that building. The building with the window was looking right at us as we came up to Elm Street and made a left, heading back toward the Triple Underpass. Midway down Elm I remember waving at my wife’s niece and nephew, Bill and Gayle Newman, who had apparently come out to see the President. About the time I started on a curve on Elm, I had turned to my right to give signals to open up the intervals since we were fixing to get on the freeway a short distance away. That’s all I had on my mind. Just as I turned around, then the first shot went off. It hit back there. I hadn’t been able to see back where Chaney was because Curry was there, but I could see where the shot came down into the south side of the curb. It looked like it hit the concrete or grass there in just a flash, and a bunch of junk flew up like a white or gray color dust or smoke coming out of the concrete.

We have all seen the Murray photo of the detectives looking at the concrete surrounding manhole cover on the south side of Elm Street. They were investigating what appeared to be a mark left by a bullet that grazed the concrete. This area is inline with the position of James Tague who was grazed on the cheek by a piece of this bullet or a piece of the concrete curb adjacent to him. That curb was apparently also hit by a part of the bullet, which apparently skipped from the manhole area to that curb.

So the physical evidence was there. The above has been a theory that I began to believe once I found enough other evidence of a first shot miss. And I cannot help believing that Stavis Ellis saw the concrete dust from this shot!

[Charles Collins]

Here is screenshot from Mark Tyler's Motorcade 63 animation just about a half-second before Z133:



It shows the location of Stavis Ellis relative to the people and the manhole area where the bullet appears to have struck. Ellis is the symbol -5 down near the triple overpass. Chaney, symbol 4, is one of the motorcycle cops near the presidential limo. And Curry is in the lead car, symbol 0, between Ellis and the limo. The concrete manhole cover is a small dark area on the south side of Elm Street about half-way between the symbols 73 and 79. It is well within Ellis' field of view when he looked back towards Chaney and the limo.

[Dan O'meara]

Here is screenshot from Mark Tyler's Motorcade 63 animation just about a half-second before Z133:



It shows the location of Stavis Ellis relative to the people and the manhole area where the bullet appears to have struck. Ellis is the symbol -5 down near the triple overpass. Chaney, symbol 4, is one of the motorcycle cops near the presidential limo. And Curry is in the lead car, symbol 0, between Ellis and the limo. The concrete manhole cover is a small dark area on the south side of Elm Street about half-way between the symbols 73 and 79. It is well within Ellis' field of view when he looked back towards Chaney and the limo.

Let's take a closer look at the image Charles has taken from Tyler's motorcade mapping program (this program is a truly monumental achievement, combining all known film, photographic and witness evidence and presenting it in such an accessible way). On my "The First Shot" thread I use the Tyler program and the witness statements collated by Pat Speer on his invaluable website to debunk various models regarding when the first shot occurred[starts Reply #788]

Note the position of the cars marked 7 and 8 in the image. These cars are the Vice-Presidential car [7] and the VP follow-up car [8]. The statements of the occupants of these cars reveal, unanimously, that both cars had completed the turn off Houston and onto Elm and were travelling on Elm Street when the first shot occurred:


VICE PRESIDENTIAL CAR

Hurchel Jacks [Driver] -
"My car had just straightened up from making the left turn. I was looking directly at the President’s car at that time. At that time I heard a shot ring out..."

Rufus Youngblood [Passenger Seat] -
"The motorcade then made a left turn, and the sidewalk crowds
were beginning to diminish in size. I observed a grassy plot to my right in back of a small crowd...I heard an explosion…"
"As we were beginning to go down this incline, all of a sudden there was an explosive noise."
"We had straightened on Elm now and were beginning to move easily down the incline in the wake of the cars ahead. Suddenly there was an explosive noise..."

Senator Yarborough [back left] -
“as the motorcade went down the slope of Elm Street toward the railroad underpass, a rifle shot was heard by me; a loud blast..."

Lady Bird Johnson [back centre] -
“we were rounding a curve, going down a hill and suddenly there was a sharp loud report..."
"...suddenly in that brilliant sunshine there was a sharp rifle shot. It  came, I thought, from over my right shoulder."

Lyndon Johnson [back right] -
"After we had proceeded a short way down Elm Street, I heard a sharp report."

VICE-PRESIDENTIAL FOLLOW-UP CAR

Joe Henry Rich [Driver] -
“We turned off of Houston Street onto Elm Street and that was when I heard the first shot."


Cliff Carter [passenger seat]  -
"...our car had just made the left hand turn onto Elm and was right along side of the Texas School Book Depository Building when I heard a noise which sounded like a firecracker."

Jerry Kivett [back right] -
"As the motorcade was approximately 1/3 the way to the underpass, traveling between 10 and 15 miles per hour, I heard a loud noise..."

Warren Taylor [back centre] -
“Our automobile had just turned a corner (the names of the streets are unknown to me) when I heard a bang which sounded to me like a possible firecracker —the sound coming from my right rear."

Thomas (Lem) Johns [back right] -
"We turned onto Elm Street...We were going downhill...which put the Texas Book Depository on our right, more or less...But we were going down this Elm Street, with my door open. I heard at least two shots.."


10 witnesses in 2 vehicles all corroborating each others statements. Not one or two ambiguous statements open to any kind of interpretation. Every single occupant of both cars are stating, basically, the same thing - at the time of the first shot these cars had turned off Houston Street and were travelling down Elm.
In the image posted by Charles, cars 7 and 8 are still on Houston - the VP follow up car hasn't even begun to make the turn!!
So, as far as witness evidence goes we have, on one hand, Ellis and on the other the coordinated, self corroborating witness statements of 10 people as to when the first shot occurred.
The question - How reliable is Ellis? - must be asked. For the answer we turn again to Speer's website where he has collated every known witness statement regarding the shots. In the OP we see Ellis waved to his wife's niece and nephew, the Newman's.

"(11-18-16 interview of William and Gayle Newman at the JFK Lancer Conference in Dallas) (On "Uncle Steve's" whereabouts when the shots rang out.) "Actually, he was on the other side of the triple underpass when the shots rang out."

Ellis was on the other side of the underpass when the shots rang out! He had already passed through the underpass when the first shot rang out, this is not shown in the image Charles posted, it shows Ellis still on the same side as the Newman's.  After collating every known statement by Ellis regarding the shots, Speer concludes:

Ellis is a poster child for Selective Attribution Syndrome. Conspiracy theorists and single-assassin theorists alike love to use his comments about seeing something hit the curb as evidence for a first shot miss. But they should read on. He says that as this happened people began running everywhere. That they began falling... He is therefore describing the head shot. What he saw hit the curb then was quite possibly the skull fragment observed flying through the air by Charles Brehm and later found in the street by Harry Holmes and A.D. McCurley. This conclusion is further supported by Ellis' statements to Morrissette, moreover. There, he made clear that 1) he believed the bullet striking the windshield was the same bullet that struck the street, and 2) he had come to conclude the first shot hit the street because he was under the impression the bullet striking the skull did not exit. If this is so, and Ellis had mis-remembered the head shot as the first shot, well, then, his description of Kennedy reaching for his neck and the third shot striking the President in the head would appear to be more an assertion of what he believes happened, then what he saw happen. Sure enough, in Ellis’s statements to Larry Sneed in No More Silence, he admits he turned back around before the second shot was fired and therefore could not have seen what he is purported to have seen in Bowles’ book. His throwing in the “Bang Bang” at the end was probably poetic license but possibly a reflection that he did indeed hear one or two shots after the head shot. In any event, his recollections aren't particularly credible. To make matters worse, the Bell and Daniel films prove Ellis was nowhere near the lead car at the time of the shooting.

The reader can make their own mind up regarding the validity of Ellis' observations and of the early first shot Charles is proposing.

[Charles Collins]

A quote from “Reclaiming History”:


…Royce Skelton, who was standing on top of the railroad overpass directly above Elm Street, and that Epstein forgot to cite Skelton’s testimony. If so, it’s just as good for Epstein that he “forgot.” Skelton said he in fact did see smoke in Dealey Plaza, but not coming from the grassy knoll area. As noted earlier, in his Warren Commission testimony he said one of two shots he heard just as the president’s car had completed its turn on to Elm hit the concrete to the “left front” of the car and he saw “smoke coming up off the cement” (6 H 237–238). In Skelton’s earlier statement to the Dallas County Sheriff’s Department, he said the bullet hit the pavement to the “left rear” of the president’s car (Decker Exhibit No. 5323, 19 H 496).


Dan, you can believe whichever “he said, she said” accounts that you want to regarding the timing of the first shot. Nothing that I can say or do is likely to change your mind. I have pointed out in earlier threads other physical evidence including films and photos that tends to confirm an early missed shot. Dismiss them if you wish, I really don’t care. This thread is about the physical evidence. The Mark Tyler animation image is to illustrate what Stavis Ellis stated to Larry Sneed that he saw when he heard the first shot.

[Brian Roselle]

Charles,
Your comments reminded me of an interesting thing regarding Faye Chism’s testimony. Immediately after the event that day I believe she did not mention seeing a bullet hit the ground, perhaps she thought it was a firecracker or “dumball” which is what Royce Skeleton thought. Later she says she recalls three shots.

I recently saw a 6th floor Museum video that was recorded a few years ago with Rickey Chism. He described what his mom saw regarding the first shot, and why she waited so many years to talk about it in detail (basically fear, given how they were treated in the aftermath that day). She separately made a living history statement with the museum, which included this:
“And they came down the hill.  And I heard three shots. One hit the ground.”
https://emuseum.jfk.org/objects/36521/marvin-faye--rickey-chism-oral-history

There was one other interview by Ken Rheberg that I read about regarding this missed shot that was discussed on alt.assassanation.jfk, started by Don Roberdeau in 2004. In Rheberg's interview Faye Chism went into specific detail as to where she saw the bullet hit the pavement. The forum discussion went like this:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DRoberdeau
Good Day.... Can anyone else, please, provide any and all references
(besides her 22NOV63 DPD statement) for close attack DP witness, MARVIN
FAYE CHISM?

Don,
To my knowledge, there are no published quotations from Mrs. Chism other
than from her initial statement. The only researcher I know to have
interviewed Mrs. Chism is Ken Rheberg, who spoke with her a couple of
years ago and posted an article about it at the Lancer forum, with no
direct quotes from her. 
Here's what he said:
I had a chance to speak with Mrs. Chism last week. Here is the substance
of our conversation.

Mrs. Chism goes by her middle name "Faye." I believe her to be a godly
woman, devoted to her family, and someone who possesses a good sense of
humor even about that darkest of days over forty years ago. I was
saddened, and surprised, to hear that her husband had died twenty years
ago from cancer. I thought he was still alive. I don't recall hearing or
seeing anything to the contrary, but then maybe I just missed it.

She said the first shot that was fired hit the street to the right of the
car, about halfway between the front and back. She saw the sparks as it
ricocheted off the street. The Chisms were in a good position to see this
since they were only a few feet away. This story corresponds with the
stories of others who saw bullets hit the street. She heard two more shots
but can't place where they came from or where they hit. Following the
shots, and during their run down Elm Street toward the triple underpass,
they were stopped by a Sheriff. After telling him what they had seen, they
were walked back to the Sheriff's Department where they were "held
hostage" (tongue in cheek with a little laugh) for six hours. Once they
were released, they walked back to their car which was parked up on the
Stemmons Freeway.

When they first arrived in Dealey Plaza to see the President, after
parking their car, they walked straight to the North Elm Street sidewalk
where they were filmed and photographed at the time of the assassination.
According to Mrs. Chism, they were never behind the wall at the top of the
grassy knoll at any time.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you extend Chism’s direct line of view from the right side of the limo around z133, to her and then in a direction behind her, it coincidently points exactly to Royce Skelton.
On Don Roberdeau’s map the Chism’s position is circled in red here, with the line of site from her to an early shot beside the limo drawn in black, and also extended backwards intersecting Skelton.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/14zR1nHXlcKWa0DKC-jak8nHryvN5all1/view?usp=sharing


Is it just coincidence?
That line of vision is also not that far off what Ellis would have had at that time when looking behind to his right while coming out of the curve leaving the Plaza, with the lead car blocking his view to the middle right side of the limo.

[Charles Collins]

Charles,
Your comments reminded me of an interesting thing regarding Faye Chism’s testimony. Immediately after the event that day I believe she did not mention seeing a bullet hit the ground, perhaps she thought it was a firecracker or “dumball” which is what Royce Skeleton thought. Later she says she recalls three shots.

I recently saw a 6th floor Museum video that was recorded a few years ago with Rickey Chism. He described what his mom saw regarding the first shot, and why she waited so many years to talk about it in detail (basically fear, given how they were treated in the aftermath that day). She separately made a living history statement with the museum, which included this:
“And they came down the hill.  And I heard three shots. One hit the ground.”
https://emuseum.jfk.org/objects/36521/marvin-faye--rickey-chism-oral-history

There was one other interview by Ken Rheberg that I read about regarding this missed shot that was discussed on alt.assassanation.jfk, started by Don Roberdeau in 2004. In Rheberg's interview Faye Chism went into specific detail as to where she saw the bullet hit the pavement. The forum discussion went like this:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DRoberdeau
Good Day.... Can anyone else, please, provide any and all references
(besides her 22NOV63 DPD statement) for close attack DP witness, MARVIN
FAYE CHISM?

Don,
To my knowledge, there are no published quotations from Mrs. Chism other
than from her initial statement. The only researcher I know to have
interviewed Mrs. Chism is Ken Rheberg, who spoke with her a couple of
years ago and posted an article about it at the Lancer forum, with no
direct quotes from her. 
Here's what he said:
I had a chance to speak with Mrs. Chism last week. Here is the substance
of our conversation.

Mrs. Chism goes by her middle name "Faye." I believe her to be a godly
woman, devoted to her family, and someone who possesses a good sense of
humor even about that darkest of days over forty years ago. I was
saddened, and surprised, to hear that her husband had died twenty years
ago from cancer. I thought he was still alive. I don't recall hearing or
seeing anything to the contrary, but then maybe I just missed it.

She said the first shot that was fired hit the street to the right of the
car, about halfway between the front and back. She saw the sparks as it
ricocheted off the street. The Chisms were in a good position to see this
since they were only a few feet away. This story corresponds with the
stories of others who saw bullets hit the street. She heard two more shots
but can't place where they came from or where they hit. Following the
shots, and during their run down Elm Street toward the triple underpass,
they were stopped by a Sheriff. After telling him what they had seen, they
were walked back to the Sheriff's Department where they were "held
hostage" (tongue in cheek with a little laugh) for six hours. Once they
were released, they walked back to their car which was parked up on the
Stemmons Freeway.

When they first arrived in Dealey Plaza to see the President, after
parking their car, they walked straight to the North Elm Street sidewalk
where they were filmed and photographed at the time of the assassination.
According to Mrs. Chism, they were never behind the wall at the top of the
grassy knoll at any time.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you extend Chism’s direct line of view from the right side of the limo around z133, to her and then in a direction behind her, it coincidently points exactly to Royce Skelton.
On Don Roberdeau’s map the Chism’s position is circled in red here, with the line of site from her to an early shot beside the limo drawn in black, and also extended backwards intersecting Skelton.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/14zR1nHXlcKWa0DKC-jak8nHryvN5all1/view?usp=sharing


Is it just coincidence?
That line of vision is also not that far off what Ellis would have had at that time when looking behind to his right while coming out of the curve leaving the Plaza, with the lead car blocking his view to the middle right side of the limo.

Thanks for this Brian, that’s interesting. I need to take a more detailed look at this!

[Dan O'meara]

A quote from “Reclaiming History”:


…Royce Skelton, who was standing on top of the railroad overpass directly above Elm Street, and that Epstein forgot to cite Skelton’s testimony. If so, it’s just as good for Epstein that he “forgot.” Skelton said he in fact did see smoke in Dealey Plaza, but not coming from the grassy knoll area. As noted earlier, in his Warren Commission testimony he said one of two shots he heard just as the president’s car had completed its turn on to Elm hit the concrete to the “left front” of the car and he saw “smoke coming up off the cement” (6 H 237–238). In Skelton’s earlier statement to the Dallas County Sheriff’s Department, he said the bullet hit the pavement to the “left rear” of the president’s car (Decker Exhibit No. 5323, 19 H 496).


Dan, you can believe whichever “he said, she said” accounts that you want to regarding the timing of the first shot. Nothing that I can say or do is likely to change your mind. I have pointed out in earlier threads other physical evidence including films and photos that tends to confirm an early missed shot. Dismiss them if you wish, I really don’t care. This thread is about the physical evidence. The Mark Tyler animation image is to illustrate what Stavis Ellis stated to Larry Sneed that he saw when he heard the first shot.

"Dismiss them if you wish, I really don’t care."

I know you don't care Charles.
The Tyler image you posted utterly refutes your notion of such an early shot thanks to the coordinated, self-corroborating evidence of 10 witnesses who unanimously agree their cars had completed the turn off Houston and were on Elm at the time of the first shot.
This is solid evidence but you dismiss it because you don't care.

The Newman's state that Ellis was on the other side of the underpass at the time of the shot but you dismiss it because you don't care.
On a number of occasions Ellis states he was alongside the lead car at the time of the shots but at no time is he alongside the lead car.
In one version of events he only sees the first shot, in another he sees all three shots.
On a number of occasions Eliis states JFK looked over his right shoulder, something refuted by the Z-Film.

But you don't care.

What's even more puzzling is that you, for some reason known only to yourself, equate what Ellis saw with the manhole cover that was struck by a bullet. You then introduce Skelton's evidence about the bullet striking just in front of the Pres. limo, hundreds of feet away from the manhole cover.
What's going on with that?

Why not chuck in Virgie Baker who saw a bullet strike the road behind the limo.
One shot striking three different locations simultaneously!! Wow.

Things you post on this forum will be challenged.
I expect exactly the same thing.

[Charles Collins]

An interesting demonstration by the Mythbuster crew: