Trouble to get Carcano fragment deflecting from far up on Elm making it to Tague

[Brian Roselle]

I am having trouble to get a Carcano fragment deflecting from far up on Elm making it to Tague.

Estimating a Ballistic Coefficient for a de-jacketed and deflected Carcano bullet off a hard surface was explored to see if a deflected and/or fragmented early shot could readily reach James Tague. The results were not very reassuring that this would happen from way up on Elm.

BC’s of deformed and fragmented Carcano bullets could not directly be found and were not listed in one reference that discussed degradation of ricocheted bullets, but BC’s of a few metal jacketed 9mm bullets that were shot at just over mach 1 to ricochet off a hard surface were measured and used here to estimate a BC for a ricocheted Carcano bullet. The 9mm bullets were deformed but did not fragment, so their mass of 115 grains remained close to what is estimated a de-jacketed Carcano would be at 125 grains.
Also, since the 9mm bullets were deformed but not fragmented, the average BC of the lower third of the BC’s reported on them was used to estimate a fragmented Carcano. The average of the lower third of the 9mm bullets tested was a BC of 0.006

Here was the issue. In conjunction with the above base assumptions, I used a rough estimate of Tague being about 150 yards (450 feet) ground distance from the traffic mast which was in front of the TSBD, and about 32 feet below it in elevation. A deflected and fragmented bullet would have lost most all of its aerodynamics and spin stabilization so would have randomly tumbled through air down the street with a lot of air resistance. To hit the Tague curb (and assume nothing else in-between) it would need to retain a high speed to make it down to the curb given its high air drag (very poor BC).
Assuming a ricochet off a mast that caused a loss of jacket and changed direction vertically up and laterally to the right, at the same time, and having the new direction being initially horizontal in a direction toward Tague, a trajectory estimate using the Shooters Calculator shows on its graph that roughly to get out to 150 yards at -32 feet fall, a core fragment would need a velocity of greater than Mach 3 (~3700 ft/sec) to make it down in that area of the curb for those conditions.

The input used in the Trajectory Calculator:
Drag Function: G1 (G function for standard bullets)
Ballistic Coefficient: 0.006 (BC estimated from poorer deformed 9mm ricochets)
Bullet weight: 125 grains (de-jacketed Carcano core)
Initial Velocity 3700 ft/sec (this was the input needed to make the graph get near a -32 ft fall at 150 yards out)
Zero range: 1 yard (set to 1 to create a horizontal initial trajectory)

Hopefully this link with the inputs populated works.

https://shooterscalculator.com/ballistic-trajectory-chart.php?pl=%5BPreset+Name%5D&presets=&df=G1&bc=.006&bw=125&vi=3700&zr=1&sh=0&sa=0&ws=0&wa=0&ssb=on&cr=180&ss=1&chartColumns=Range%7Eyd%60Elevation%7Ein%60Elevation%7EMOA%7EFBFFF5%60Elevation%7EMIL%60Windage%7Ein%60Windage%7EMOA%7EFBFFF5%60Windage%7EMIL%60Time%7Es%60Energy%7Eft.lbf%60Vel%5Bx%2By%5D%7Eft%2Fs&lbl=&submitst=+Create+Graph+

This probably calls for a more detailed review on the inputs, but a first check on this didn’t seem to pan out. If the implication is correct, it probably suggests the early first shot got disintegrated in a collision or deflected somewhere else not as far away as the curb down by Tague.

[Charles Collins]

I am having trouble to get a Carcano fragment deflecting from far up on Elm making it to Tague.

Estimating a Ballistic Coefficient for a de-jacketed and deflected Carcano bullet off a hard surface was explored to see if a deflected and/or fragmented early shot could readily reach James Tague. The results were not very reassuring that this would happen from way up on Elm.

BC’s of deformed and fragmented Carcano bullets could not directly be found and were not listed in one reference that discussed degradation of ricocheted bullets, but BC’s of a few metal jacketed 9mm bullets that were shot at just over mach 1 to ricochet off a hard surface were measured and used here to estimate a BC for a ricocheted Carcano bullet. The 9mm bullets were deformed but did not fragment, so their mass of 115 grains remained close to what is estimated a de-jacketed Carcano would be at 125 grains.
Also, since the 9mm bullets were deformed but not fragmented, the average BC of the lower third of the BC’s reported on them was used to estimate a fragmented Carcano. The average of the lower third of the 9mm bullets tested was a BC of 0.006

Here was the issue. In conjunction with the above base assumptions, I used a rough estimate of Tague being about 150 yards (450 feet) ground distance from the traffic mast which was in front of the TSBD, and about 32 feet below it in elevation. A deflected and fragmented bullet would have lost most all of its aerodynamics and spin stabilization so would have randomly tumbled through air down the street with a lot of air resistance. To hit the Tague curb (and assume nothing else in-between) it would need to retain a high speed to make it down to the curb given its high air drag (very poor BC).
Assuming a ricochet off a mast that caused a loss of jacket and changed direction vertically up and laterally to the right, at the same time, and having the new direction being initially horizontal in a direction toward Tague, a trajectory estimate using the Shooters Calculator shows on its graph that roughly to get out to 150 yards at -32 feet fall, a core fragment would need a velocity of greater than Mach 3 (~3700 ft/sec) to make it down in that area of the curb for those conditions.

The input used in the Trajectory Calculator:
Drag Function: G1 (G function for standard bullets)
Ballistic Coefficient: 0.006 (BC estimated from poorer deformed 9mm ricochets)
Bullet weight: 125 grains (de-jacketed Carcano core)
Initial Velocity 3700 ft/sec (this was the input needed to make the graph get near a -32 ft fall at 150 yards out)
Zero range: 1 yard (set to 1 to create a horizontal initial trajectory)

Hopefully this link with the inputs populated works.

https://shooterscalculator.com/ballistic-trajectory-chart.php?pl=%5BPreset+Name%5D&presets=&df=G1&bc=.006&bw=125&vi=3700&zr=1&sh=0&sa=0&ws=0&wa=0&ssb=on&cr=180&ss=1&chartColumns=Range%7Eyd%60Elevation%7Ein%60Elevation%7EMOA%7EFBFFF5%60Elevation%7EMIL%60Windage%7Ein%60Windage%7EMOA%7EFBFFF5%60Windage%7EMIL%60Time%7Es%60Energy%7Eft.lbf%60Vel%5Bx%2By%5D%7Eft%2Fs&lbl=&submitst=+Create+Graph+

This probably calls for a more detailed review on the inputs, but a first check on this didn’t seem to pan out. If the implication is correct, it probably suggests the early first shot got disintegrated in a collision or deflected somewhere else not as far away as the curb down by Tague.

I’m not sure if this is relevant, but I remember seeing a demonstration of the Carcano bullet penetrating solid pine wood. And if I remember correctly, it was something like 36” and the nose of the bullet wasn’t deformed. This was impressive and tells me that it has more penetration power than most bullets. It is likely due to the very thick and hard copper jacket, and the high rate of spin due to the shape of the bullet, and the high velocity, etc.. Anyway, is there some comparable wood penetration statistic for the 9mm bullets that you are basing this on? It might be interesting if nothing else.

[Dan O'meara]

I am having trouble to get a Carcano fragment deflecting from far up on Elm making it to Tague.

Estimating a Ballistic Coefficient for a de-jacketed and deflected Carcano bullet off a hard surface was explored to see if a deflected and/or fragmented early shot could readily reach James Tague. The results were not very reassuring that this would happen from way up on Elm.

BC’s of deformed and fragmented Carcano bullets could not directly be found and were not listed in one reference that discussed degradation of ricocheted bullets, but BC’s of a few metal jacketed 9mm bullets that were shot at just over mach 1 to ricochet off a hard surface were measured and used here to estimate a BC for a ricocheted Carcano bullet. The 9mm bullets were deformed but did not fragment, so their mass of 115 grains remained close to what is estimated a de-jacketed Carcano would be at 125 grains.
Also, since the 9mm bullets were deformed but not fragmented, the average BC of the lower third of the BC’s reported on them was used to estimate a fragmented Carcano. The average of the lower third of the 9mm bullets tested was a BC of 0.006

Here was the issue. In conjunction with the above base assumptions, I used a rough estimate of Tague being about 150 yards (450 feet) ground distance from the traffic mast which was in front of the TSBD, and about 32 feet below it in elevation. A deflected and fragmented bullet would have lost most all of its aerodynamics and spin stabilization so would have randomly tumbled through air down the street with a lot of air resistance. To hit the Tague curb (and assume nothing else in-between) it would need to retain a high speed to make it down to the curb given its high air drag (very poor BC).
Assuming a ricochet off a mast that caused a loss of jacket and changed direction vertically up and laterally to the right, at the same time, and having the new direction being initially horizontal in a direction toward Tague, a trajectory estimate using the Shooters Calculator shows on its graph that roughly to get out to 150 yards at -32 feet fall, a core fragment would need a velocity of greater than Mach 3 (~3700 ft/sec) to make it down in that area of the curb for those conditions.

The input used in the Trajectory Calculator:
Drag Function: G1 (G function for standard bullets)
Ballistic Coefficient: 0.006 (BC estimated from poorer deformed 9mm ricochets)
Bullet weight: 125 grains (de-jacketed Carcano core)
Initial Velocity 3700 ft/sec (this was the input needed to make the graph get near a -32 ft fall at 150 yards out)
Zero range: 1 yard (set to 1 to create a horizontal initial trajectory)

Hopefully this link with the inputs populated works.

https://shooterscalculator.com/ballistic-trajectory-chart.php?pl=%5BPreset+Name%5D&presets=&df=G1&bc=.006&bw=125&vi=3700&zr=1&sh=0&sa=0&ws=0&wa=0&ssb=on&cr=180&ss=1&chartColumns=Range%7Eyd%60Elevation%7Ein%60Elevation%7EMOA%7EFBFFF5%60Elevation%7EMIL%60Windage%7Ein%60Windage%7EMOA%7EFBFFF5%60Windage%7EMIL%60Time%7Es%60Energy%7Eft.lbf%60Vel%5Bx%2By%5D%7Eft%2Fs&lbl=&submitst=+Create+Graph+

This probably calls for a more detailed review on the inputs, but a first check on this didn’t seem to pan out. If the implication is correct, it probably suggests the early first shot got disintegrated in a collision or deflected somewhere else not as far away as the curb down by Tague.

Have you only tried these calculations assuming a ricochet "from far up Elm"?
Have you tried a direct ricochet off the manhole cover closer to thr triple underpass?

[Brian Roselle]

I’m not sure if this is relevant, but I remember seeing a demonstration of the Carcano bullet penetrating solid pine wood. And if I remember correctly, it was something like 36” and the nose of the bullet wasn’t deformed. This was impressive and tells me that it has more penetration power than most bullets. It is likely due to the very thick and hard copper jacket, and the high rate of spin due to the shape of the bullet, and the high velocity, etc.. Anyway, is there some comparable wood penetration statistic for the 9mm bullets that you are basing this on? It might be interesting if nothing else.

I am not aware of any testing on pine wood exploring the penetration of shooting a typical 9mm full metal jacket or total metal jacket.

If I had to guess I would guess it would penetrate pretty well into pine without a lot of bullet deformation, but it wouldn’t penetrate as far into the wood, based on a typical lower discharge velocity, compared to the Carcano.

Testing side by side with charges that would provide comparative velocities would be interesting. If I see anything I will post it.

[Brian Roselle]

Have you only tried these calculations assuming a ricochet "from far up Elm"?
Have you tried a direct ricochet off the manhole cover closer to thr triple underpass?

That’s a good question Dan, and I have not tried it to see what would happen if a direct shot first went to that manhole cover further down by the underpass.

The real advantage of having an undeformed bullet go further down Elm before collision would be that it remains in its optimally designed aerodynamic shape with spin stabilization so will not lose a ton of velocity from air friction on that part of its path. It gets a large “head start” if you will, before it would deform/fragment and start seeing major frictional resistance, so would require less velocity after fragmentation as a result of being closer to where it finally ends up. It should be a more reasonable velocity after deflection (certainly less than muzzle velocity!) while still making it to Tague.

I did look at something similar awhile back where a fragment with under supersonic speeds, (which deformed at, and then escaped the limo) at z313 could have just made it to Tague before hitting the ground. So if you are thinking along those lines, with an errant intact bullet hitting the Elm manhole cover and fragmenting and going on, I would say yes, in theory that scenario should be able to work because with a deflection at that point I would also expect the required velocity would only need to be subsonic after collision and still make it to Tague.

So net, I have not done that estimate, but I would expect it would be possible. If looking at it further would be useful, I could have a closer look at it, but I have not spent much time looking into an alleged bullet strike at that Elm manhole area.

How convinced is the research community that there was actually a bullet or fragment strike up there at that Elm St. manhole?  I am curious versus what I would say are a lot of folks convinced about a curb strike near the Main St. manhole cover that was a few feet from Tague.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,2833.msg118262.html#msg118262

No such trouble for an AR15 slug.