Colors of Blue and Gold

[Matt Grantham]

The Russians are undoubtedly in the moral wrong in this war.

 I am not sure what this is based on Maybe I can ask what the problem was with Ukraine remaining militarily neutral? Generally, in response I would hear the right of self determination Did Cuba enjoy this right in 61 The right of self defense in the UN only mentions massing troops on the border of a threatened nation The sovereignty of the Donabas was in limbo with the failures of Western Ukraine, and other western nations failing to live up to the Minsk agreements The W Ukrainians massed tens of thousands of troops on their border with the Donbas prior to February 2022 They were already responsible for some 13,000 civilian deaths since 2014 There was already a crisis prior to February

[Jon Banks]

I am not sure what this is based on Maybe I can ask what the problem was with Ukraine remaining militarily neutral? Generally, in response I would hear the right of self determination Did Cuba enjoy this right in 61 The right of self defense in the UN only mentions massing troops on the border of a threatened nation The sovereignty of the Donabas was in limbo with the failures of Western Ukraine, and other western nations failing to live up to the Minsk agreements The W Ukrainians massed tens of thousands of troops on their border with the Donbas prior to February 2022 They were already responsible for some 13,000 civilian deaths since 2014 There was already a crisis prior to February

Ukraine can ask to join NATO if they want. It's unlikely that their wish will be granted. It only takes one veto and several NATO countries are hard "NO's" on allowing Ukraine to join.

But the US under President Bush in 2008 and Biden in 2021 extended an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO, which obviously was viewed as a provocation in Russia. Still, I don't think the NATO issue, nor the civil war in Ukraine justify Putin's 2022 invasion.

My guess is, Putin thought he could quickly get Ukraine to capitulate to his demands. Now he's caught in a quagmire of his own making because he miscalculated. None of that absolves the US of things we've done to provoke Russia over the last decade or so. But I just don't think this war was necessary or unavoidable for Putin.

[Matt Grantham]

 I wouldn't call it a quagmire, nor would I phrase all action as coming from Putin Russia has already won back the areas they were concerned about They do want to ensure Ukraine cannot threaten them again, and that may be a long and deadly road for Ukraine And the American public who support this war, can live in yet another of their fantasy bubbles imagining our military helps nations instead of destroying them

[Jon Banks]

Russian forces appear close to making significant gains in eastern Ukraine while Kyiv prepares for a possible new offensive from their north:
As battles rage, Russia likely controls Ukraine’s Soledar: UK

Russian forces likely control the eastern Ukrainian town Soledar, in the Donetsk region, having advanced for the past four days, according to the British defence ministry.

A daily update by the ministry said on Tuesday said capturing Soledar is “likely an effort to envelop Bakhmut”, the highly contested city 10km (6 miles) away, where both sides have suffered heavy losses.

The defence ministry added: “Part of the fighting has focused on entrances to the 200km-long [124-mile] disused salt mine tunnels which run underneath the district. Both sides are likely concerned that they could be used for infiltration behind their lines”.

According to Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov, in Soledar, Russian forces have established fire control over the main Ukrainian supply route to the town.

“This is not a complete encirclement, but normal supply along the route is impossible, [and] this is critical for defence,” he said.

Seizing Bakhmut would allow Moscow’s troops to advance to two more prominent cities, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

In his late-night address on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Bakhmut and Soledar were holding on despite intense attacks.

“Everything is completely destroyed, there is almost no life left,” he said.

“The whole land near Soledar is covered with the corpses of the occupiers and scars from the strikes.

“This is what madness looks like.”

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/10/russian-forces-likely-control-soledar-british-defence-ministry

[Joe Elliott]

Russian forces appear close to making significant gains in eastern Ukraine while Kyiv prepares for a possible new offensive from their north:
As battles rage, Russia likely controls Ukraine’s Soledar: UK

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/10/russian-forces-likely-control-soledar-british-defence-ministry

I wouldn't call that a serious gain. Not compared to the serious Ukrainian gains of during the last 8 months around Kharkiv and Kherson. Russia has been totally done with large gains of territory since April. Since then, they have been grimly hanging on, with very small gains on small sections here or there, with occasional much larger collapses of a front. Since April, their territorial gains have been much smaller than the Ukrainian gains. Half the territory that Russia seized in 2022 has already been taken back by Ukraine. The tide is clearly going against Russia.

Saying Russia has some loses, but also some gains, implying it's going back and forth, is like saying Germany in 1944/1945 had some loses, but also some gains. The German advances in 1944/1944, counter attacks in Eastern Prussia, counter attacks in the Battle of the Bulge, were totally eclipsed by the huge Soviet and Western Allies advances during that period. By more than a 100 to 1 ratio.

I get the impression that this winter is so mild, for Ukraine, that significant advances by either side will be unlikely until May or June, with both sides being bogged down by the mud. But I think that before the summer is out, Russia will lose the Crimea land bridge and Crimea itself. We shall see.

Can Putin survive the lose of Crimea? That is, stay in office? Or even survive? I doubt it. Makes no difference. He will be replaced by someone just as bad. But able to rally the Russians to go on any further large adventures? I doubt it.

[Steve M. Galbraith]

I wouldn't call that a serious gain. Not compared to the serious Ukrainian gains of during the last 8 months around Kharkiv and Kherson. Russia has been totally done with large gains of territory since April. Since then, they have been grimly hanging on, with very small gains on small sections here or there, with occasional much larger collapses of a front. Since April, their territorial gains have been much smaller than the Ukrainian gains. Half the territory that Russia seized in 2022 has already been taken back by Ukraine. The tide is clearly going against Russia.

Saying Russia has some loses, but also some gains, implying it's going back and forth, is like saying Germany in 1944/1945 had some loses, but also some gains. The German advances in 1944/1944, counter attacks in Eastern Prussia, counter attacks in the Battle of the Bulge, were totally eclipsed by the huge Soviet and Western Allies advances during that period. By more than a 100 to 1 ratio.

I get the impression that this winter is so mild, for Ukraine, that significant advances by either side will be unlikely until May or June, with both sides being bogged down by the mud. But I think that before the summer is out, Russia will lose the Crimea land bridge and Crimea itself. We shall see.

Can Putin survive the lose of Crimea? That is, stay in office? Or even survive? I doubt it. Makes no difference. He will be replaced by someone just as bad. But able to rally the Russians to go on any further large adventures? I doubt it.

The best site (for me) on this is the Institute for Understanding the Study of War (I got their name wrong): https://www.understandingwar.org/

They report this on Soledar: "Russian forces have not captured the entirety of Soledar despite several false Russian claims that the city has fallen and that Bakhmut risks imminent encirclement. Several Russian sources claimed that Wagner Group forces advanced into the west of Soledar on January 10.[18] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin refuted these claims, remarking that Wagner Group forces are still fighting against concerted Ukrainian resistance.[19] ISW has only observed visual confirmation of Wagner Group forces in central Soledar as of January 10.[20] The reality of block-by-block control of terrain in Soledar is obfuscated by the dynamic nature of urban combat, however, and Russian forces have largely struggled to make significant tactical gains in the Soledar area for months. Even taking the most generous Russian claims at face value,"

What's interesting is they claim Russian forces are increasingly having to use professional/private armies - essentially hiring people, e.g., the Wagner Group - to conduct significant offensive operations. The raw recruits are used for defensive operations only and are incapable of anything more.

[Joe Elliott]

The best site (for me) on this is the Institute for Understanding War: https://www.understandingwar.org/

They report this on Soledar: "Russian forces have not captured the entirety of Soledar despite several false Russian claims that the city has fallen and that Bakhmut risks imminent encirclement. Several Russian sources claimed that Wagner Group forces advanced into the west of Soledar on January 10.[18] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin refuted these claims, remarking that Wagner Group forces are still fighting against concerted Ukrainian resistance.[19] ISW has only observed visual confirmation of Wagner Group forces in central Soledar as of January 10.[20] The reality of block-by-block control of terrain in Soledar is obfuscated by the dynamic nature of urban combat, however, and Russian forces have largely struggled to make significant tactical gains in the Soledar area for months. Even taking the most generous Russian claims at face value,"

What's interesting is they claim Russian forces are increasingly having to use professional/private armies - essentially hiring people, e.g., the Wagner Group - to conduct significant offensive operations. The raw recruits are used for defensive operations only and are incapable of anything more.

Yes. The Wagner Group seems to be the most effective army force that Russia has. And I am sure you would agree, that does not make the Wagner Group an effective military force. I don't think it is the Wagner Group or the regular army that is holding the Ukrainians back now. I think it is the mud. With this mild winter, the mud might not ever really go away this winter. And, even if there is a cold snap, winter is not the ideal time for an offensive.

But when the ground finally dries out in the early summer, around May or June, we will see how effective the Wagner Group and the Regular Russian army with it's fresh and largely untrained and ill-equipted draftees fare against the NATO trained (this winter) Ukrainians. I don't think very well. The Kharkiv offensive of last September is a foreshadowing of things to come.

[Joe Elliott]

Russian lost Kherson, a city with a population of 280,000 (pre-war 2020). It was the only administration center of an Oblast (sort of like a U. S. state) that Russia captured in 2022. It was abandoned by the Russians within a few days of the U. S. elections in November (don't want to hurt the Pro-Trump candidates). So they needed something to offset the loss of that city, for the Russian public.

The Russians believed they could take Bakhmut, a town of 70,000 (pre-war 2020). So the Russian media made Bakhmut the litmus test of how effective the Russian military force is. But it appears that they won't take that place.

So now they have turned to Soledar, a town of 10,000 (pre-war 2020), to make that their new litmus test. Some sources claim it has been taken, but it appears it is still contested.

If the Russians fail to take Soledar, I expect the Russian media will soon be talking about how they are on the verge of taking some town of 3,000. The Russians believe they will soon take some city or town of decisive importance this winter. They just don't know yet which one it will be. Perhaps it won't be a town. Maybe it will be a house in Bakhmut or Soledar, which will be declared as the "Pavlov house" of 2023.