Fewer and fewer people are buying into the narrative that Ukraine can win this war.
Russia may ultimately be unable to takeover all of Ukraine but Ukraine may ultimately be unable to kick the Russians out.
So a stalemate remains the most plausible outcome for the near future.
Totally unable to kick Russia out of all Ukraine? I would agree. So long as Russia doesn't give up.
Certain parts of Ukraine are going to be very tough.
Luhansk and Donetsk. As the Russians are driven back here, they get closer and closer to the border of Russia. It becomes easier and easier to get supplies up to the front as the Russians retreat.
Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea? A very different story. Those regions require a long, exposed supply line back into Russia. The sort of offensive the Ukrainians had in the Kharkiv region last September, through Zaporizhzhia would be catastrophic. This "Russian Land Bridge" through Zaporizhzhia. It's hard to imagine a worst strategic setup in modern history. A long, fairly narrow corridor, much longer than it is wide, backed up a shallow sea, the Sea of Atoz, too shallow for ships to navigate, looks very vulerable. If the Ukrainians drive to that sea, western Zaporizhxhia, Kherson and Crimea would have to be kept supplied over the partly destroyed Crimea bridge. That won't work.
I can think of no example in military history, that such a narrow corridor, has to be maintained, for many months at a time, in order to a large section of land to be held.
Question: Can anyone name a similar example?If Crimea falls, Russia may decide to carry on the war in Luhansk and Donetsk. Or they may decide to call it quits. That this fiasco has gone on long enough.
Whatever happens, Ukraine is not going to quit. In 1941, some Ukrainians fought against both Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. And even though occupied by enemies for year after year, were not suppressed until 1949. It took the Soviet Union longer to totally defeat Ukraine than it did for them to defeat Nazi Germany.
And as long as Ukraine doesn't quit, a Russian invasion of the Baltic States, Finland, Poland and Germany is not going to happen. And American troops will stay out of the fight. Let's continue to support them.
