The French dug in during the winter of 1939-1940. Indeed they spent all of the 1930's digging in. While Germany trained for offensive battle.
The Germans dug in during the winter of 1943-1944, all along the Atlantic coast. While the Western Allies trained for offensive battle.
The Russians have spent much of a whole year digging in. While Ukraine has trained for offensive battle.
There is historical precedence for Ukrainian victory.
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Where will the Ukrainians attack? I don't know. But there is historical precedence for attacking in the second most likely area.
In 1940, the Germans did not attack in the most likely area, Northern Belgium, through the plains, but in the second most likely area, through the hilly and forested terrain of Southern Belgium.
In 1944, the Allied did not attack in the most likely area, the shortest distance across the Channel into the Calais area, but instead in the second most likely area, Normandy. Further for the ships to sail to, but still within range. Further for planes to provide air cover, but still within range. And with far fewer German troops defending.
The best place for Ukraine to attack is through Zaporizhzhia. It would, largely, cut off Russian troops in Kherson and Crimea from supply. It would be a spectacular victory if these troops had to surrender. But an attack through Kherson would be good enough to likely doom the Russian troops in Crimea. And that would be a good enough victory.
The Russians spent a lot of resources securing this narrow land bridge to Crimea. Because they doubt their long term ability to hold Crimea without it. If this land bridge is cut anywhere, and that cut becomes permanent, the Russians likely will not be able to hold on to Crimea.
I would love to see a successful attack through Zaporizhzhia. But if too many Russian troops are defending there, an attack through Kherson may be the best option.
