Ms. Half-Baked-Alaska Defeated!
Despite having running in a deep red state. Despite having Donald Trump’s endorsement, Sarah Palin lost the election for Alaska’s House of Representatives seat which became open when the current Representative died.
True, this is only a temporary term, until January 2023. The election for the January 2023 through January 2025 term is still coming up in November.
Still, this is a big defeat, that does not bode well for MAGA Republicans. Despite Palin’s claims, this defeat was not the result of a Ranked Ballot system being used. In the original votes, of just the voters first choice:
Peltola (Democrat) got 37 % of the votes
Palin (MAGA Republican) got 30 % of the votes
Begich (Moderate Republican) got 26 % of the votes
There was a “Second Count”. With Begich coming in third, his ballots were discounted and his voters second choice was added to the top two remaining candidates, Peltola and Palin. However, while some voters made Palin their second choice, many choose Peltola or made no choice at all. Clearly, a significant percentage of Republicans did not think that Palin was acceptable. Results of the “Second Count” were:
Peltola 51 %
Palin 49 %
Under the traditional system, Palin would have lost by 7 %. However, with the Ranked Ballots system, Palin only lost be 2 %.
Far from dooming Palin, the Ranked Ballots system gives Palin her only chance. She is hardly likely to make up a 7 % difference in the next two months. But a 2 % difference just might be possible.
Clearly, a significant number of Alaskan Republicans find Palin unacceptable. This seat could be made safe for Republicans, if Palin would just withdraw from the race. But I don’t think she will do that. And I don’t think she will do better in November. Not only does she still back the false claim that the election was stolen from Trump in 2020, she now claims that the recent election may have been stolen from her. This will only turn moderate Alaskan Republicans even more against her.
I think this election in November will be Palin’s swan song. And portents big trouble for MAGA Republicans in November. If they can’t win in Alaska then their prospects are poor in most races.
I think that 2022 will prove to be a Mass Extinction Level Event, for both principal Republicans, who actively rejected Trump for his 2020-2021 election overturn schemes, and for MAGA Republicans, who strongly endorse the false Stolen Election narrative. We shall see in two months.
