The two potential curveballs that I see affecting Biden's chances are:
- The legal troubles for his son. The DOJ appears to be very close to prosecuting Hunter for tax related issues.
- What happens in Ukraine by the end of this year. There's a new Politico article out this morning confirming that the Biden administration is concerned about the political consequences at home if the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive fails.
On the second point, I have wondered myself if Biden has gambled too much political capital on the Ukraine war. It could be a major problem for him throughout the 2024 election if the war over there continues throughout the Presidential campaign.
Yes, Ukraine is a wild card. It began as a positive with many buying the fake "pro-democracy, Ukraine good, Russia bad" propaganda. Support is already waning but hasn't become negative. If the Russians cave in the coming months, then Biden will be celebrated. If the war continues in stalemate for years as likely, then enthusiasm will wane as it does for all wars. "Europe" has already mostly checked out. As usual, they are content to allow the US to bear the cost. And, of course, there is no better time for China to invade Taiwan with the US bogged down in Ukraine. Is Old Joe going to start WWIII during a presidential campaign over Taiwan? Doesn't seem likely. If China was ever going to do it, the time is coming. They don't want to deal with Trump or DeSantis in a post-Ukraine future. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would have worldwide economic consequences - and not for the good. It would make the COVID lockdown seem like a minor inconvenience. Global market collapse. Not sure Biden or anyone in office could survive the economic consequences of sanctions on China similar to those imposed on Russia. The US and world economy are tied to China for good or ill. It would be much more significant than the impact of sanctions on Russia.
In terms of Hunter, I think the corrupt DOJ will find a way to give him a slap on the wrist and it will be done. They haven't sat on evidence of his numerous felonies for all these years to throw the book at him just as Old Joe ramps up his campaign. They are politically biased and corrupt. I also see no way possible that Biden, in his obvious physical and mental decline, could finish a second term. The election should factor in the likelihood that Kamala would become president in a second term. And I think most voters including the most radical Dems can't see that as a positive thing. To put it kindly, she is simply not up to the task.
