A Tale of Three Cowards
Putin Prigozhin and Surovikin.
Prigozhin, Putin's most effective commander. Barely managed to take Bakhmut after 7 months of grinding offense, using up tens of thousands of convicts. Ruthlessly ordered a man killed with a sledgehammer, showing just how tough Prigozhin is. On June 23-24, Prigozhin seized Rostov on the Don, population one million, and the headquarters of the Russian forces in Ukraine. He then executed a Thunder Run 80 % of the way to Moscow. Putin's plane had already fled Moscow, flew off the radar scopes, disappearing to the north. How history might have changed in Prigozhin knew about this. When victory seemed assured, he chickened out and returned to Rostov.
Prigozhin bragged that he at least showed how the drive to Kiev could have been done and should have been done. Though I don't think a sudden advance over the border and on toward Kiev that quickly gets within 30 kilometers of Kiev before abruptly turning around and getting back into Belarus by the next day would accomplish much.
General Surovikin. Putin's most ruthless commander. Got his start in the early 1990's ruthlessly killing protesters as the Soviet Union collapsed, showing just how tough he is. Until a week ago, commanded the air assets for the invasion of Ukraine. Air Forces have a history of having problems with armies that are dug in and camouflaged. But if there is one thing an Air Force can deal with, is an army on the move. Strung out along roads and on the move. America's Eight and Ninth Air Forces were most effective, under good weather, at dealing with German units on the move. Although in July 1944, at St. Lo, the demonstrated that they can be effective, if somewhat crude, and dangerous to friendly forces, when attacking camouflaged and dug in German army units. If there is one thing Surovikin should have been able to do, is leave the Wagner Group a burning line of wrecked vehicles on the freeway.
If there is a rule in coups, it is that you must go all in. Or don't attempt it at all. Surovikin allowed Prigozhin a 99 % free run. But he hedged a bet a bit. Put out a video pleading with Prigozhin to stop. Sending a token air attack against Prigozhin that destroyed a couple of his vehicles while getting a plane and 6 helicopters destroyed. But his video and his sending of some air units, was probably what caused the seeds of doubt to grow in Prigozhin. If Surovikin is really with him, why is he sending some air units against me? Are some part of the military disobeying Suravikin and still being loyal to Putin?
Then there is Putin. If Prigozhin turns against him, the critical branch best suited to stopping him is the Russian Air Force. The Russian army and all available armor is all in Ukraine. If Prigozhin turns against him, that armor and infantry is going to be left in the Wagner's Group rear mirror. So who does Putin name to command Russia's air units in Ukraine? Prigozhin's biggest ally in the Russian military, General Suroviken.
Prigozhin continuously complains he doesn't have enough ammunition, enough fuel. The military high command is withholding all this from him. So what does Putin do? He gives the Wagner group a lot of ammunition, a lot of fuel, a lot of ground to air missiles to Wagner. Giving the Wagner group the material it needs to defend itself against the Ukrainian Army. Or to make a Thunder run on Moscow.
When everything is falling apart for Putin on June 24, what does he do? He issues a video saying that he is being stabbed in the back. That 1917 seems to be happening all over again. Like he is about to become Russia's 21st century Nicholas II. And his plane flees Moscow. Yes, there was no need for Putin to flee the Kremlin, only for his plane to do so.
Putin couldn't get his units to obey him while he occupied his post in the Kremlin. What chance he would be able to do so while hiding out in his St. Petersburg Dacha?
Some say, well, this doesn't matter, Putin is now more firmly in charge than ever.
It makes a difference with Western governments. Putin needs to sell the notion that he is ruthless and has nerves of steel. That he will think out all the details, he will always be a move or two ahead of you. And that Russians will obey any order. And that Putin might be crazy enough to do anything.
If Putin thinks out all the details and is always two moves ahead of everyone else, why did he allow the Wagner Group access to all the fuel, ammunition and ground to air missiles it would need to make a Thunder Run all the way to Moscow? Why did he give control of the Russian Air Force in South Western Russia to Progozhin's biggest ally?
If Russians blindly obey any order Putin gives them, why didn't they bomb to hell the Wagner column? If they would not obey those orders, what are the odds they would obey an order to using nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
If Putin has nerves of steel and is prone to taking wild chances, so don't mess with him, why does it appear he fled Moscow?
Putin's ability to bluff the West has taken a severe hit.
And other Russian commanders now have the blueprint to overthrow Putin. And most importantly of all, know that Putin does not have nerves of steel when things start to really turn against him. The next time they turn against Putin, they won't be taking half measures. They now know they have to go all in or not attempt it at all.
