That possible obstacle in the video is BELOW the base of the podium itself.
So my position is still that Crooks 1st and 2nd shots were presumably aimed to hit Trump at the very least in the upper center of his body which is well above the base of the podium and approx half his body above the top of the podium = a target area approx 3 ft high x 1ft 6” wide.
Since I doubt seriously any average person familiar with the AR 15 and having some experience shooting a rifle such as Crooks had, would likely miss far off a 3ft x 1ft 6 in target (above the top of the podium) at range of 130 yds , then I remain skeptical of the fragment theory.
The only possibility imo could be some kind of ricochet of the bullet #1 or # 2 striking the very top edge of the podium then flying upwards at an some angle to the right side of Trumps head when his head was NOT turned so far towards to his right ( towards Crooks).
All the videos seem to indicate Trump being hit as his head is turned all the way to his right so that would preclude a ricochet off the podium top edge because the bullet or fragment of bullet would have to traverse thru some part of Trumps mid upper body before reaching the right side of his head.
IDK if the shot which is captured in the photo wizzing past Trumps head was fragment or whole bullet, but the trajectory line ( reflected sunlight illumination of the projectile) looks likes it’s too horizontal to be plausibly an upward angle ricochet from the top edge of the podium.