The Answer My Friend

[Jerry Organ]

I wanted to make it clear to people who are just on this thread that fragments were found and recovered. So a bullet did strike some object which produced fragments. So this should, I think, put an end to arguments about whether fragments could or could not have been produced. They could and were.

Well, I would have kept it in "Emergency Doctors Determine that Trump was Struck by a Rifle Bullet". You are ignoring the cautions in my post and using my graphic to draw conclusions I don't support.

[Jerry Organ]

Training from military or experts shouldn’t be needed. I shot an M16 in basic training for the USAF in 1973. Probably less than twenty shots total. A short classroom lesson and a hike out to the range for a few shots at a target for scoring. I was a little above average when I was 19 years old. Over 50-years later, poor eyesight, recent cataract surgery and still no real training I shot the following 90 shots. All of which would be close enough to the aim point to have hit a head at the distance involved in the Trump assassination attempt. These targets were much closer but proportionally much smaller also. At the ten meter distance for these targets, if my off the top of my head calculations are close, anything with about 1/2” would be good enough. The black bullseyes are 3-cm in diameter (less than 1-1/4”). There are ten pellets shot through each target. The measurements written next to the targets are the center to center of the maximum spread of each 10-shot group. I have taught myself to shoot this well only recently. No training by experts involved.

You must have gotten that good from watching "Gunsmoke". I mentioned that show because I'm enjoying some good color episodes of the show this summer. The editing, pace, cast and guest stars are monumental compared to today, but that's from my Boomer perspective. I guess the show did reach its pinnacle when it stopped. "Rockford Files' is another show I would watch, but a few years ago I did get caught up through DVDs from the library.



Screen capture from Jim Copenhaver's phone about three minutes before the shooting. The gunman (circled) still has to reach a point, by my guest, 15-to-20 feet to his left (camera-right). Trump seems to be forward of the trajectory to Mr. Copenhaver (assuming Copenhaver was in the same location when shot as when he was filming).

[Charles Collins]

At ten meters, about 11 yards, you missed by 0.5 inches. So at 143 yards you should miss by 6 or 7 inches. I think this sounds respectable for someone with your training. By the way, I have no training. I suspect you would have been even better if you ever had Marine training. As it is, I suspect you would not have passed the minimum requirements to become a Marine even when you were 19 years old, no disgrace for one without Marine training.

By the way, I understand that for experts, at least up to 300 yards, they can expect that they might miss by up to an inch for every 100 yards of range, so at 140 yards they might miss by 1.4 inches. Above 300 yards the error may start to increase more rapidly, due to misestimating the range or the effects of the wind.

At ten meters, about 11 yards, you missed by 0.5 inches. So at 143 yards you should miss by 6 or 7 inches.

Apparently you do not grasp the results shown on the sheet of targets. I didn’t miss at all. All ninety shots are accurate enough to hit within the minutes of angle (MOA) involved in the Trump shooting.

A Minute of Angle (MOA) is an angular measurement.

A MOA is 1/60th of a degree.

1 MOA spreads about 1″ per 100 yards. (actually 1.047″) Therefore at 143-yards one MOA would be approximately (1.047” x 1.43) = 1.497”.

An average human head measures 6-7 inches in width and 8-9 inches in length. Let’s use the smaller dimension as a diameter say, 6.5”. Therefore an average human head at 143-yards equals 6.5”/ 1.497 = 4.3 MOA

So, at 11-yards a MOA is: 1.047” / (100/11) = .115”. Multiply that by 4.3 = .645”. So, .645” would be the equivalent target size at 11-yards.


The largest group of ten shots on that sheet of targets is 0.303” center to center. That is less than half the 0.645” equivalent target size. In other words, I could have missed the point of aim by a significant margin and still hit within the target.

[Charles Collins]

You must have gotten that good from watching "Gunsmoke". I mentioned that show because I'm enjoying some good color episodes of the show this summer. The editing, pace, cast and guest stars are monumental compared to today, but that's from my Boomer perspective. I guess the show did reach its pinnacle when it stopped. "Rockford Files' is another show I would watch, but a few years ago I did get caught up through DVDs from the library.



Screen capture from Jim Copenhaver's phone about three minutes before the shooting. The gunman (circled) still has to reach a point, by my guest, 15-to-20 feet to his left (camera-right). Trump seems to be forward of the trajectory to Mr. Copenhaver (assuming Copenhaver was in the same location when shot as when he was filming).

You must have gotten that good from watching "Gunsmoke".

I liked Gunsmoke as a youngster. I’ll have to take another look now that I am older. My skills at shooting are very recent basically from practice. If you want to see some excellent shooting skills check out the Olympics shooting competitions. They shoot some of the airguns at the same 10-meter distance and targets that I do. I have consulted some online sources for how to shoot well. But the point is that I don’t believe any military training or training by an expert is necessary to be able to shoot well enough to hit a +4-MOA target. And the point of this thread is that the wind was a factor that just might explain why it was apparently a little off of the point of aim.

[Jerry Organ]

The trajectory of a first shot ricochet to cause the hydraulic line puncture shifts the trajectory line over closer to where Trump was standing. I think if we had an aerial photo that allowed the trajectory line to be drawn on it as a true vertical, the slight change in perspective would cause the trajectory line to pass over the stage a wee bit to the right, which is more where I think Trump was. So a first shot to the upper hand-rail ricochet point is consistent with a whole bullet passing very close to Trump's head, enough to nick the ear.

[Zeon Mason]

I wonder if the 2 counter snipers on the roof saw Crooks as he was moving across the roof to get to the position where Crooks thought (mistakenly) that the tree would block the counter snipers LOS on the other roof top.

You can see there’s an abrupt readjustment of the counter snipers tripod just before he (presumably) was the one who fired one shot to take out Crooks only AFTER Crooks fired 8 shots!?

Haven’t heard any specifics statement yet from the counter snipers. Only a general statement that there is  “leadership” problem that needs to be corrected.

Hopefully there will be testimony from the counter sniper team about the specifics before they mysteriously disappear never to be seen again.

[Jerry Organ]

I wonder if the 2 counter snipers on the roof saw Crooks as he was moving across the roof to get to the position where Crooks thought (mistakenly) that the tree would block the counter snipers LOS on the other roof top.

You can see there’s an abrupt readjustment of the counter snipers tripod just before he (presumably) was the one who fired one shot to take out Crooks only AFTER Crooks fired 8 shots!?

Haven’t heard any specifics statement yet from the counter snipers. Only a general statement that there is  “leadership” problem that needs to be corrected.

Hopefully there will be testimony from the counter sniper team about the specifics before they mysteriously disappear never to be seen again.

The gunman was off to the side of the 180° sweep the south snipers had to cover. Most of the gunman's body was below the roof ridge. The rifle might not have been visible until the last few moments.



It could have been Goober Pyle up on the roof for a better view.

[Royell Storing]

You must have gotten that good from watching "Gunsmoke". I mentioned that show because I'm enjoying some good color episodes of the show this summer. The editing, pace, cast and guest stars are monumental compared to today, but that's from my Boomer perspective. I guess the show did reach its pinnacle when it stopped. "Rockford Files' is another show I would watch, but a few years ago I did get caught up through DVDs from the library.



Screen capture from Jim Copenhaver's phone about three minutes before the shooting. The gunman (circled) still has to reach a point, by my guest, 15-to-20 feet to his left (camera-right). Trump seems to be forward of the trajectory to Mr. Copenhaver (assuming Copenhaver was in the same location when shot as when he was filming).

    Once they went to Color Episodes, the overall quality of Gunsmoke episodes was in The Dumper. Generally, upon replacing Burt Reynolds with Ken Curtis/ "Festus", the quality was steadily heading downhill.