That’s a great job on the window set up. I really do like the idea of modeling to get a sense of the actual dynamics. It seems to have given you the idea of bumping boxes with the gun as a first shot control issue which I don’t think would come to mind to me by just looking at photographs of the snipers nest.
I am not predisposed to any particular shooting position for the first shot, but am pretty confident in the trigger time.
Your sitting position and bumping the box could be what happened to cause a miss. It could also be a part of a multivariable dynamic with a flow of adrenalin and rushing to get in a very tempting close first shot after picking up on the target just below, with the angular velocity of the target at that time something beyond what he ever trained on. It might not have been as simple as one specific cause.
One thing that I still wonder about is in that configuration, sitting the whole time, it appears to me Oswald, because of the wall right there by him would lose sight of his target perhaps as early as half way down Houston and not be able to pick up on it again until the limo was between say, him and the line-of-sight Hughes had to him. This could be, but it seems that would have caused a really rushed first shot if picking up on the target again was so late. When standing or seating in your model, would the view facilitate seeing the limo the whole time, which if standing could still could facilitate a semi standing, crouching, or quick returning to seating position just before firing.
I guess my main concern, which is not a show stopper, is when in the seated position would one readily have a view extending to the east side of Houston Street the whole way from Main to Elm? I’m guessing the Secret Service re-enactment filming position was not controlled to replicate sniper’s nest window opening, box orientations, etc, but it did keep the limo in view the whole time after entering the Plaza.
It seems to have given you the idea of bumping boxes with the gun as a first shot control issue which I don’t think would come to mind to me by just looking at photographs of the snipers nest.Yes, the idea came to me when I only had a 3D computer model. At that point in time I was guessing that he might have been tracking the limo when the muzzle end of his rifle hit the box. Once I was able to actually be in this model with a rifle in hand, it appeared to me that he wouldn't be likely to be tracking the limo at that location (at least not from a sitting position).
Your sitting position and bumping the box could be what happened to cause a miss. It could also be a part of a multivariable dynamic with a flow of adrenalin and rushing to get in a very tempting close first shot after picking up on the target just below, with the angular velocity of the target at that time something beyond what he ever trained on. It might not have been as simple as one specific cause.I agree it might not be a simple matter. Also, we can only guess (based on what we do believe we know) at these types of things.
One thing that I still wonder about is in that configuration, sitting the whole time, it appears to me Oswald, because of the wall right there by him would lose sight of his target perhaps as early as half way down Houston and not be able to pick up on it again until the limo was between say, him and the line-of-sight Hughes had to him. This could be, but it seems that would have caused a really rushed first shot if picking up on the target again was so late. When standing or seating in your model, would the view facilitate seeing the limo the whole time, which if standing could still could facilitate a semi standing, crouching, or quick returning to seating position just before firing.Preliminarily, I believe that in a sitting position (leaning forward) he could see the limo until it was just below him. Then it would disappear behind the window sill box for just an instant. Although I would need to find the proper angles and layout the roadways before I could say that with any certainty. From a standing position, he could see things a bit easier; however, it appears to me that the window sill box would still be a potential interference object at about the same time we believe an early shot happened. I have just now verified that, even from a normal and comfortable standing position with a rifle that is approximately the same length as the Carcano, that the last inch or two of the barrel does reach and hit the corner of the window sill box.
I guess my main concern, which is not a show stopper, is when in the seated position would one readily have a view extending to the east side of Houston Street the whole way from Main to Elm? I’m guessing the Secret Service re-enactment filming position was not controlled to replicate sniper’s nest window opening, box orientations, etc, but it did keep the limo in view the whole time after entering the Plaza.Again, I would have to layout the roadways based on the angles involved to be sure. I think the limo was near the center of Houston Street based on my memory. I am not ruling out a standing position. I think it is a possibility. However, so far my thinking has been leaning towards a sitting position due to the following:
The ergonomics of the sniper's nest seem to me to be definitely designed for shots (while sitting) down Elm Street after emerging from behind the tree.
I believe he would want to try to stay concealed as much as possible. The boxes around the sitting position in the sniper's nest affords good concealment from people both inside and outside the TSBD. Standing up removes most of that concealment.
I believe that the sitting position and the support for the arm from the boxes provide the most stable position feasible.
Changing positions takes up valuable time.
I envision him staying concealed until all of the SS agents have gotten so close to the building that they would have to be looking almost straight up to see him. Then quickly raising the rifle and preparing to shoot from behind them. A well-designed ambush.
